Charted: When the World’s Largest Countries Will Hit Peak Population

Peak Population Year for the World’s Largest Countries

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This chart tracks the seven most populous countries and their population every year between 1975 and 2100. Estimates used for figures past 2025.

From this data we can track the population peak for each country, and mark the year it is likely to occur.

Data is sourced from the UN’s World’s Population Prospects, published 2024. It’s important to remember that these are projections based on current fertility, mortality, and migration patterns.

Factors like war, disease, and famine are not accounted for, nor sudden changes in socio-economic prospects which could impact birth rates.

So…Who’s Still Growing?

Of the seven most populous countries in the world, one (China) already hit their population peak in 2021.

Other countries, specifically Brazil, Indonesia, and India, are on their way to hit their peaks within the next 2–4 decades.

Meanwhile, the U.S., Pakistan and Nigeria will keep growing slowly past 2100.

Of the three countries, current estimates put Nigeria and Pakistan’s fertility rates above the population replacement rate all the way until the 2080s.

The fertility rate is the average number of children a woman will have over the course of her lifetime. The replacement rate is the number of children born per woman (2.1) at which population levels remain stable.

This metric indicates that Pakistan and Nigeria’s population is likely to grow for quite some time, without accounting for migration.

On the other hand, the U.S. fertility rate is already below the replacement rate. This typically indicates that populations should decline, but immigration into the country has long boosted population growth and this trend is likely to offset other declines.

Learn More on the Voronoi App

Wondering what this chart looks like at a continent level? Check out: Every Continent and its Population Peak This Century for a quick overview.