Investor Education

Opportunity Zones: Aligning Public and Private Capital

Published

3 years ago

March 11, 2020

Dorothy Neufeld

Graphics/Design:

Joyce Ma

Opportunity Zones: Aligning Public and Private Capital

At the end of 2017, a potential $6.1 trillion in unrealized capital gains was available for reinvestment.

Throughout the U.S., unrealized capital gains have significant tax implications with enormous potential. Unrealized capital gains occur when the value of an asset has gone up on paper, but has not yet been sold for a profit. Taxes are triggered once the asset has been sold.

Investors can offset or defer these taxes in a few ways, including one new strategy: investing in opportunity zones.

Today’s infographic from Bedford Funds explains what opportunity zone funds are, their core benefits, and their potential impact across the country.

What is an Opportunity Zone?

Opportunity zones are U.S. Census tracts whose citizens experience economic distress.

Originating in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, they offer the potential to connect long-term capital with low-income communities across the country to drive return and impact.

How are opportunity zones chosen? The initial base is low-income census tracts, which have:

Poverty rates of at least 20%; or
Median family incomes lower than 80% of the surrounding area

The state’s governor or chief executive then nominates up to 25% of these areas as opportunity zones. Nationwide, a total of 8,700 opportunity zones exist, and 7.9 million of the areas’ residents live in poverty.

Overall, 35 million people live in these opportunity zones. There are a number of disparities between opportunity zones and notional averages across key variables:

	Poverty Rate	Median Family Income	Education*
Opportunity Zones	27.1%	$47,316	18.1%
National Average	14.1%	$73,965	31.5%

*Adult with Bachelor’s degree or higher

It’s evident these cities could benefit from increased investment.

What is an Opportunity Zone Fund?

An opportunity zone fund (OZF) is an investment vehicle that provides tax benefits for private capital to help revitalize economically distressed communities. Both operating businesses and real estate are eligible for investment.

Many investor types may take advantage of opportunity zone funds:

Corporations– Also includes partnerships
Accredited investors– Defined as high net worth individuals, brokers, and trusts
Nonresident foreign investors– Only on capital gains earned in the U.S.
Retail investors– Through funds that have lower minimums, though options are more limited

In addition to their wide eligibility, OZFs have a number of potential benefits.

Benefits

Tax breaks on capital gains can be organized into three tiers:

Initial Tax Deferral– Once the previously-earned capital gains are channeled into a qualifying OZF, federal tax is deferred until December 31, 2026 or the date the investment is sold— whichever comes sooner
Step-Up In Basis– 10% of the original capital gains will be excluded from federal taxes if an investment is held for five years
Capital Gains Tax Exclusion– Federal tax on capital gains earned within the OZF is 100% eliminated if an investment is held for 10 years

All things being equal, OZFs realize after-tax outcomes that are over 40% higher than a standard portfolio investment. For example, the potential after-tax value of a $100 investment after a 10-year holding period would be as follows.

	Initial Investment	Net after-tax value
OZF	$100	$175.30
Standard portfolio investment	$76.20 ($100- 23.8% capital gains tax)	$132.36

*Note: assumes long-term federal capital gains tax rate of 23.8%, no state income tax, and annual appreciation of 7% for both the OZF and alternative investment.

While it takes a few years to realize these tax benefits, OZFs have long-term horizons to encourage sustained investment with a lasting impact. The result is the potential for sustainable and equitable wealth creation.

Future Impact

Although real estate investments have captured significant attention, recent regulation has clarified that operating businesses are also eligible OZF investments.

By investing in businesses, OZFs can have a direct impact on economic growth and job creation.

Ultimately, OZFs have the potential to catalyze collective impact through their scalable operating company and real estate investments. Working directly with community leaders, OZFs can help drive long-term rejuvenation from within, versus gentrification from outside forces.

Opportunity zone funds are projected to raise $44 billion in capital designed specifically to invest in this future growth.

Related Topics:private equity tax sustainable investing U.S. taxation opportunity zones

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Investor Education

Visualizing 90 Years of Stock and Bond Portfolio Performance

How have investment returns for different portfolio allocations of stocks and bonds compared over the last 90 years?

Published

2 months ago

March 22, 2023

Dorothy Neufeld

Visualizing 90 Years of Stock and Bond Portfolio Performance

This was originally posted on Advisor Channel. Sign up to the free mailing list to get beautiful visualizations on financial markets that help advisors and their clients.

Last year, stock and bond returns tumbled after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates at the fastest speed in 40 years. It was the first time in decades that both asset classes posted negative annual investment returns in tandem.

Over four decades, this has happened 2.4% of the time across any 12-month rolling period.

To look at how various stock and bond asset allocations have performed over history—and their broader correlations—the above graphic charts their best, worst, and average returns, using data from Vanguard.

How Has Asset Allocation Impacted Returns?

Based on data between 1926 and 2019, the table below looks at the spectrum of market returns of different asset allocations:

Stock / Bond Portfolio Allocation	Best Annual Return	Worst Annual Return	Average Annual Return
0% / 100%	32.6%	-8.1%	5.3%
10% / 90%	31.2%	-8.2%	6.0%
20% / 80%	29.8%	-10.1%	6.6%
30% / 70%	28.4%	-14.2%	7.2%
40% / 60%	27.9%	-18.4%	7.8%
50% / 50%	32.3%	-22.5%	8.3%
60% / 40%	36.7%	-26.6%	8.8%
70% / 30%	41.1%	-30.7%	9.2%
80% / 20%	45.4%	-34.9%	9.6%
90% / 10%	49.8%	-39.0%	10.0%
100% / 0%	54.2%	-43.1%	10.3%

We can see that a portfolio made entirely of stocks returned 10.3% on average, the highest across all asset allocations. Of course, this came with wider return variance, hitting an annual low of -43% and a high of 54%.

A traditional 60/40 portfolio—which has lost its luster in recent years as low interest rates have led to lower bond returns—saw an average historical return of 8.8%. As interest rates have climbed in recent years, this may widen its appeal once again as bond returns may rise.

Meanwhile, a 100% bond portfolio averaged 5.3% in annual returns over the period. Bonds typically serve as a hedge against portfolio losses thanks to their typically negative historical correlation to stocks.

A Closer Look at Historical Correlations

To understand how 2022 was an outlier in terms of asset correlations we can look at the graphic below:

The last time stocks and bonds moved together in a negative direction was in 1969. At the time, inflation was accelerating and the Fed was hiking interest rates to cool rising costs. In fact, historically, when inflation surges, stocks and bonds have often moved in similar directions.

Underscoring this divergence is real interest rate volatility. When real interest rates are a driving force in the market, as we have seen in the last year, it hurts both stock and bond returns. This is because higher interest rates can reduce the future cash flows of these investments.

Adding another layer is the level of risk appetite among investors. When the economic outlook is uncertain and interest rate volatility is high, investors are more likely to take risk off their portfolios and demand higher returns for taking on higher risk. This can push down equity and bond prices.

On the other hand, if the economic outlook is positive, investors may be willing to take on more risk, in turn potentially boosting equity prices.

Current Investment Returns in Context

Today, financial markets are seeing sharp swings as the ripple effects of higher interest rates are sinking in.

For investors, historical data provides insight on long-term asset allocation trends. Over the last century, cycles of high interest rates have come and gone. Both equity and bond investment returns have been resilient for investors who stay the course.