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On the Precipice: Will Global Markets Follow Commodities? [Chart]

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On the Precipice: Will Global Markets Follow Commodities? [Chart]

On the Precipice [Chart]

Will global markets follow commodities off the cliff?

The Chart of the Week is a weekly Visual Capitalist feature on Fridays.

From 1970 to 2004, commodities moved the opposite direction of assets like equities and bonds. For example, it was during times such as the 1990s that cheap inputs like oil and metals helped to fuel growth in industries across the globe.

When the oil price spiked, like in instances such as the Iranian Revolution and the subsequent Iran-Iraq War in 1980, the market reacted accordingly. In that particular case, inflation jumped to 11.3% in 1979 and 13.5% in 1980, a US recession was triggered, and many economic sectors were hit hard.

However, as we see in today’s chart, from 2001-2012 commodities (as measured by the Bloomberg Commodities Index) have more or less kept in line with the S&P 500. This is historically unusual and many analysts expected it would not last. In 2012, commodities diverged in a big way.

Gold and silver were the first to drop off. More recently, it was base metals and oil that fell off the cliff because of slowing growth in China and supply gluts. Today, the Bloomberg Commodity Index and the TSX Venture Composite Index are lower than they have ever been since their inception. The former is down -19.9% from the beginning of 2001. The Venture is down -40.1% since then.

Today may be the end of this trend of divergence. US equities are at a precipice: fueled by low rates and quantitative easing for years, they have finally started to tumble from record highs. Yesterday, the Dow had its largest one-day drop since April 2014 as it slid 350 points. Even tech darlings were down as $49 billion in market capitalization was wiped out, with Apple, Google, Netflix, Facebook, and Twitter all getting crushed in trading yesterday. Market sentiment is decidedly worse than it has ever been in recent years with the tailwinds of Greece, Puerto Rico, China, and other problems.

Making predictions are the dumbest possible idea, but they say that fortune favours the brave.

So here are some bold predictions:

Gold will at least hold its current value, if not see gains in the upcoming six month. US equities do not see sizable gains for awhile. The Fed does not hike rates in September (or if they do, it will be to a lack of fanfare from the markets). Industrial commodities like base metals will continue to drop off a little further as the overall market feels like it has lost momentum and supply gluts remain supreme.

What do you think will happen in the short and medium term?

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Economy

Animated Chart: The S&P 500 in 2023 So Far

Track the S&P 500’s performance in 2023, including all 500 companies, and the sectors they belong to, in this animated video.

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A visualization of the S&P 500 performance on March 1, 2023.

The S&P 500’s Performance in 2023 Q1

With one quarter of 2023 in the books, how has the S&P 500 performed so far?

The index had a tumultuous 2022, ending the year down 18%, its worst performance since 2008. But so far, despite dealing with tight monetary conditions and an unexpected banking crisis, the S&P 500 has promptly started to rebound.

The above animation from Jan Varsava shows the stock performance of each company on the S&P 500, categorized by sector.

Biggest Gainers on the S&P 500

The S&P 500 increased 7.5% during the first quarter of 2023. Though it was led by a few big outperformers, more than half of the stocks on the index closed above their end-of-December prices.

Here are the top 30 biggest gainers on the index from January 1 to March 31, 2023.

RankCompany3-Month Return
1Nvidia90.1%
2Meta (Facebook)76.1%
3Tesla68.4%
4Warner Bros. Discovery59.3%
5Align Technology58.4%
6AMD51.3%
7Salesforce50.7%
8West Pharmaceuticals47.3%
9General Electric46.3%
10Catalent46.0%
11First Solar45.2%
12Monolithic Power Systems41.8%
13MarketAxess Holdings40.6%
14GE Healthcare Tech40.5%
15Arista Networks38.3%
16ANSYS Inc.37.8%
17Fortinet Inc.35.9%
18Wynn Resorts35.7%
19Paramount Global33.8%
20FedEx Corp32.7%
21MGM Resorts32.5%
22Royal Caribbean Group32.1%
23ON Semiconductor Corp32.0%
24Booking Holdings31.6%
25Cadence Design Systems30.8%
26Skyworks Solutions30.2%
27Pulte Group28.4%
28Seagate Technology27.1%
29Apple27.1%
30Lam Research26.6%

Nvidia shares gained the most of all the companies on the S&P 500 in Q1 2023, posting a staggering 90% return over three months.

As the world’s largest chipmaker by market cap, Nvidia gained from both strong earnings and semiconductor industry performance. It also benefited from the rising prevalence of artificial intelligence (AI) through software like ChatGPT.

Meanwhile, other tech giants Apple and Microsoft gained 27% and 21% respectively over the same time period.

Tech Leads Returns by Sector

The technology sector as a whole was the best performing sectoral index thanks to these big moves, up 21.7% at the end of March.

Sector3-Month Return
Technology21.65%
Consumer Services21.27%
Consumer Discretionary16.60%
Materials4.29%
Industrials 3.47%
Real Estate1.95%
Consumer Staples0.72%
Utilities-3.24%
Health Care-4.31%
Energy-4.37%
Financials -5.56%
S&P 5007.5%

Shares of other tech-adjacent companies like Meta (formerly Facebook) and Tesla—listed on the S&P 500 under the categories of communication services and consumer discretionary—also had a strong start to the year and lifted their respective sectors.

Meta in particular is up 76% in Q1 2023, continuing its rebound after falling to an eight-year low in November 2022 on the back of better-than-expected fourth quarter results and share buybacks.

Biggest Losers on the S&P 500

On the other side of the S&P 500, the financial sector was rocked by sudden collapses.

Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Financial Group shares lost the most ground in the first quarter, after both banks collapsed, shedding nearly all of their value in a matter of 30 days.

In fact, seven of the 10 worst performers on the index to start 2023 are banks or financial companies. The visualization shows the ripple effect on the market after the collapse of regional banks in March, and the ensuing rout driving the entire sector down 5.6% year-to-date.

Here are the top 30 biggest losers on the index from January 1 to March 31, 2023.

RankCompany3-Month Return
1Signature Bank-99.8%
2Silicon Valley Financial Group-99.6%
3First Republic Bank-88.5%
4Lumen Technologies-49.2%
5Zions Bancorporation-38.6%
6Charles Schwab Corp-36.9%
7Comerica Incorporated-33.9%
8DISH Network-33.5%
9KeyCorp-27.3%
10Lincoln National Corp-25.8%
11Centene Corporation-22.9%
12Cigna Group-22.5%
13APA Corporation-22.3%
14Citizens Financial Group-22.1%
15Enphase Energy Inc.-20.6%
16Baxter International Inc.-19.9%
17Truist Financial Corporation-19.9%
18American International Group-19.8%
19CVS Health Corporation-19.7%
20Pfizer-19.6%
21Gen Digital-19.5%
22MetLife-19.4%
23Huntington Bancshares-19.4%
24Fidelity National-19.3%
25Halliburton Company-19.2%
26Molina Healthcare-19.0%
27PNC Financial Services-18.8%
28Boston Properties-18.4%
29Fifth Third Bancorp-17.8%
30Allstate Corporation-17.7%

Despite the tight monetary landscape, traditionally defensive sectors like energy, consumer staples, and healthcare also underperformed the broader index. This is a reversal from market trends seen in 2022.

Investment Trends to Watch for in 2023

Experts predict a pause in U.S. interest rate hikes “sometime in 2023” but it’s unclear when (or at what level) the pause will take place given persistent inflation in the economy.

However, if interest rates level off in 2023, it could be a key momentum maker for the S&P 500. As Barron’s points out, the index tends to rise after hikes are paused.

Meanwhile, the current tumult in the financial sector is fanning the flames of recessionary fears. How effectively regulators manage the crisis might be the story of the year.

Finally, as we have seen in 2023 so far, investor interest in AI has sent tech stocks soaring. Is this a quick fad, or an overarching trend for the year?

Curious about what started the upheaval in the financial sector? Check out Timeline: The Shocking Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank for the backstory.
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