On the Precipice: Will Global Markets Follow Commodities? [Chart]

The S&P 500’s Performance in 2023 Q1

With one quarter of 2023 in the books, how has the S&P 500 performed so far?

The index had a tumultuous 2022, ending the year down 18%, its worst performance since 2008. But so far, despite dealing with tight monetary conditions and an unexpected banking crisis, the S&P 500 has promptly started to rebound.

The above animation from Jan Varsava shows the stock performance of each company on the S&P 500, categorized by sector.

Biggest Gainers on the S&P 500

The S&P 500 increased 7.5% during the first quarter of 2023. Though it was led by a few big outperformers, more than half of the stocks on the index closed above their end-of-December prices.

Here are the top 30 biggest gainers on the index from January 1 to March 31, 2023.

Nvidia shares gained the most of all the companies on the S&P 500 in Q1 2023, posting a staggering 90% return over three months.

As the world’s largest chipmaker by market cap, Nvidia gained from both strong earnings and semiconductor industry performance. It also benefited from the rising prevalence of artificial intelligence (AI) through software like ChatGPT.

Meanwhile, other tech giants Apple and Microsoft gained 27% and 21% respectively over the same time period.

Tech Leads Returns by Sector

The technology sector as a whole was the best performing sectoral index thanks to these big moves, up 21.7% at the end of March.

Shares of other tech-adjacent companies like Meta (formerly Facebook) and Tesla—listed on the S&P 500 under the categories of communication services and consumer discretionary—also had a strong start to the year and lifted their respective sectors.

Meta in particular is up 76% in Q1 2023, continuing its rebound after falling to an eight-year low in November 2022 on the back of better-than-expected fourth quarter results and share buybacks.

Biggest Losers on the S&P 500

On the other side of the S&P 500, the financial sector was rocked by sudden collapses.

Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Financial Group shares lost the most ground in the first quarter, after both banks collapsed, shedding nearly all of their value in a matter of 30 days.

In fact, seven of the 10 worst performers on the index to start 2023 are banks or financial companies. The visualization shows the ripple effect on the market after the collapse of regional banks in March, and the ensuing rout driving the entire sector down 5.6% year-to-date.

Here are the top 30 biggest losers on the index from January 1 to March 31, 2023.

Despite the tight monetary landscape, traditionally defensive sectors like energy, consumer staples, and healthcare also underperformed the broader index. This is a reversal from market trends seen in 2022.

Investment Trends to Watch for in 2023

Experts predict a pause in U.S. interest rate hikes “sometime in 2023” but it’s unclear when (or at what level) the pause will take place given persistent inflation in the economy.

However, if interest rates level off in 2023, it could be a key momentum maker for the S&P 500. As Barron’s points out, the index tends to rise after hikes are paused.

Meanwhile, the current tumult in the financial sector is fanning the flames of recessionary fears. How effectively regulators manage the crisis might be the story of the year.

Finally, as we have seen in 2023 so far, investor interest in AI has sent tech stocks soaring. Is this a quick fad, or an overarching trend for the year?