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On the Precipice: Will Global Markets Follow Commodities? [Chart]

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On the Precipice: Will Global Markets Follow Commodities? [Chart]

On the Precipice [Chart]

Will global markets follow commodities off the cliff?

The Chart of the Week is a weekly Visual Capitalist feature on Fridays.

From 1970 to 2004, commodities moved the opposite direction of assets like equities and bonds. For example, it was during times such as the 1990s that cheap inputs like oil and metals helped to fuel growth in industries across the globe.

When the oil price spiked, like in instances such as the Iranian Revolution and the subsequent Iran-Iraq War in 1980, the market reacted accordingly. In that particular case, inflation jumped to 11.3% in 1979 and 13.5% in 1980, a US recession was triggered, and many economic sectors were hit hard.

However, as we see in today’s chart, from 2001-2012 commodities (as measured by the Bloomberg Commodities Index) have more or less kept in line with the S&P 500. This is historically unusual and many analysts expected it would not last. In 2012, commodities diverged in a big way.

Gold and silver were the first to drop off. More recently, it was base metals and oil that fell off the cliff because of slowing growth in China and supply gluts. Today, the Bloomberg Commodity Index and the TSX Venture Composite Index are lower than they have ever been since their inception. The former is down -19.9% from the beginning of 2001. The Venture is down -40.1% since then.

Today may be the end of this trend of divergence. US equities are at a precipice: fueled by low rates and quantitative easing for years, they have finally started to tumble from record highs. Yesterday, the Dow had its largest one-day drop since April 2014 as it slid 350 points. Even tech darlings were down as $49 billion in market capitalization was wiped out, with Apple, Google, Netflix, Facebook, and Twitter all getting crushed in trading yesterday. Market sentiment is decidedly worse than it has ever been in recent years with the tailwinds of Greece, Puerto Rico, China, and other problems.

Making predictions are the dumbest possible idea, but they say that fortune favours the brave.

So here are some bold predictions:

Gold will at least hold its current value, if not see gains in the upcoming six month. US equities do not see sizable gains for awhile. The Fed does not hike rates in September (or if they do, it will be to a lack of fanfare from the markets). Industrial commodities like base metals will continue to drop off a little further as the overall market feels like it has lost momentum and supply gluts remain supreme.

What do you think will happen in the short and medium term?

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Markets

All of the World’s Money and Markets in One Visualization

Our most famous visualization, updated for 2020 to show all global debt, wealth, money, and assets in one massive and mind-bending chart.

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All of the World’s Money and Markets in One Visualization

In the current economic circumstances, there are some pretty large numbers being thrown around by both governments and the financial media.

The U.S. budget deficit this year, for example, is projected to hit $3.8 trillion, which would be more than double the previous record set during the financial crisis ($1.41 trillion in FY2009). Meanwhile, the Fed has announced “open-ended” asset-buying programs to support the economy, which will add even more to its current $7 trillion balance sheet.

Given the scale of these new numbers—how can we relate them back to the more conventional numbers and figures that we may be more familiar with?

Introducing the $100 Billion Square

In the above data visualization, we even the playing field by using a common denominator to put the world’s money and markets all on the same scale and canvas.

Each black square on the chart is worth $100 billion, and is not a number to be trifled with:

What is in a $100 billion square?

In fact, the entire annual GDP of Cuba could fit in one square ($97 billion), and the Greek economy would be roughly two squares ($203 billion).

Alternatively, if you’re contrasting this unit to numbers found within Corporate America, there are useful comparisons there as well. For example, the annual revenues of Wells Fargo ($103.9 billion) would just exceed one square, while Facebook’s would squeeze in with room to spare ($70.7 billion).

Billions, Trillions, or Quadrillions?

Here’s our full list, which sums up all of the world’s money and markets, from the smallest to the biggest, along with sources used:

CategoryValue ($ Billions, USD)Source
Silver$44World Silver Survey 2019
Cryptocurrencies$244CoinMarketCap
Global Military Spending$1,782World Bank
U.S. Federal Deficit (FY 2020)$3,800U.S. CBO (Projected, as of April 2020)
Coins & Bank Notes$6,662BIS
Fed's Balance Sheet$7,037U.S. Federal Reserve
The World's Billionaires$8,000Forbes
Gold$10,891World Gold Council (2020)
The Fortune 500$22,600Fortune 500 (2019 list)
Stock Markets$89,475WFE (April 2020)
Narrow Money Supply$35,183CIA Factbook
Broad Money Supply$95,698CIA Factbook
Global Debt$252,600IIF Debt Monitor
Global Real Estate$280,600Savills Global Research (2018 est.)
Global Wealth$360,603Credit Suisse
Derivatives (Market Value)$11,600BIS (Dec 2019)
Derivatives (Notional Value)$558,500BIS (Dec 2019)
Derivatives (Notional Value - High end)$1,000,000Various sources (Unofficial)

Derivatives top the list, estimated at $1 quadrillion or more in notional value according to a variety of unofficial sources.

However, it’s worth mentioning that because of their non-tangible nature, the value of financial derivatives are measured in two very different ways. Notional value represents the position or obligation of the contract (i.e. a call to buy 100 shares at the price of $50 per share), while gross market value measures the price of the derivative security itself (i.e. $1.00 per call option, multiplied by 100 shares).

It’s a subtle difference that manifests itself in a big way numerically.

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Charting the Rise and Fall of the Global Luxury Goods Market

This infographic charts the rise and fall of the $308 billion global personal luxury market, and explores what the coming year holds for its growth

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The Rise and Fall of the Global Luxury Goods Market

Global demand for personal luxury goods has been steadily increasing for decades, resulting in an industry worth $308 billion in 2019.

However, the insatiable desire for consumers to own nice things was suddenly interrupted by the coming of COVID-19, and experts are predicting a brutal contraction of up to one-third of the current luxury good market size this year.

Will the industry bounce back? Or will it return as something noticeably different?

A Once Promising Trajectory

The global luxury goods market—which includes beauty, apparel, and accessories—has compounded at a 6% pace since the 1990s.

Recent years of growth in the personal luxury goods market can be mostly attributed to Chinese consumers. This geographic market accounted for 90% of total sales growth in 2019, followed by the Europe and the Americas.

Analysts suggest that China’s younger luxury goods consumers in particular have significant spending power, with an average spend of $6,000 (¥41,000) per person in pre-COVID times.

An Industry Now in Distress

The lethal combination of reduced foot traffic and decreased consumer spending in the first quarter of 2020 has brought the retail industry to its knees.

In fact, more than 80% of fashion and luxury players will experience financial distress as a result of extended store closures.

luxury market McKinsey supplemental

With iconic luxury retailers such as Neiman Marcus filing for bankruptcy, the pressure on the luxury industry is clear. It should be noted however, that companies who were experiencing distress before the COVID-19 outbreak will be the hardest hit.

Predicting the Collapse

In a recent report, Bain & Company estimated a 25% to 30% global luxury market contraction for the first quarter of 2020 based on several economic variables. They have also modeled three scenarios to predict the performance for the remainder of 2020.

  • Optimistic scenario: A limited market contraction of 15% to 18%, assuming increased consumer demand for the second and third quarter of the year, roughly equating to a sales decline of $46 billion to $56 billion.
  • Intermediate scenario: A moderate market contraction of between 22% and 25%, or $68 to $77 billion.
  • Worst-case scenario: A steep contraction of between 30% and 35%, equating to $92 billion to $108 billion. This assumes a longer period of sales decline.

Although there are signs of recovery in China, the industry is not expected to fully return to 2019 levels until 2022 at the earliest. By that stage, the industry could have transformed entirely.

Changing Consumer Mindsets

Since the beginning of the pandemic, one-quarter of of consumers have delayed purchasing luxury items. In fact, a portion of those who have delayed purchasing luxury goods are now considering entirely new avenues, such as seeking out cheaper alternatives.

However, most people surveyed claim that they will postpone buying luxury items until they can get a better deal on price.

luxury market supplemental

This frugal mindset could spark an interesting behavioral shift, and set the stage for a new category to emerge from the ashes—the second-hand luxury market.

Numerous sources claim that pre-owned luxury could in fact overtake the traditional luxury market, and the pandemic economy could very well be a tipping point.

The Future of Luxury

Medium-term market growth could be driven by a number of factors, from a global growing middle class and their demand for luxury products, as well as retailers’ sudden shift to e-commerce.

While analysts can only rely on predictions to determine the future of personal luxury, it is clear that the industry is at a crossroads.

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