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On the Precipice: Will Global Markets Follow Commodities? [Chart]

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On the Precipice: Will Global Markets Follow Commodities? [Chart]

On the Precipice [Chart]

Will global markets follow commodities off the cliff?

The Chart of the Week is a weekly Visual Capitalist feature on Fridays.

From 1970 to 2004, commodities moved the opposite direction of assets like equities and bonds. For example, it was during times such as the 1990s that cheap inputs like oil and metals helped to fuel growth in industries across the globe.

When the oil price spiked, like in instances such as the Iranian Revolution and the subsequent Iran-Iraq War in 1980, the market reacted accordingly. In that particular case, inflation jumped to 11.3% in 1979 and 13.5% in 1980, a US recession was triggered, and many economic sectors were hit hard.

However, as we see in today’s chart, from 2001-2012 commodities (as measured by the Bloomberg Commodities Index) have more or less kept in line with the S&P 500. This is historically unusual and many analysts expected it would not last. In 2012, commodities diverged in a big way.

Gold and silver were the first to drop off. More recently, it was base metals and oil that fell off the cliff because of slowing growth in China and supply gluts. Today, the Bloomberg Commodity Index and the TSX Venture Composite Index are lower than they have ever been since their inception. The former is down -19.9% from the beginning of 2001. The Venture is down -40.1% since then.

Today may be the end of this trend of divergence. US equities are at a precipice: fueled by low rates and quantitative easing for years, they have finally started to tumble from record highs. Yesterday, the Dow had its largest one-day drop since April 2014 as it slid 350 points. Even tech darlings were down as $49 billion in market capitalization was wiped out, with Apple, Google, Netflix, Facebook, and Twitter all getting crushed in trading yesterday. Market sentiment is decidedly worse than it has ever been in recent years with the tailwinds of Greece, Puerto Rico, China, and other problems.

Making predictions are the dumbest possible idea, but they say that fortune favours the brave.

So here are some bold predictions:

Gold will at least hold its current value, if not see gains in the upcoming six month. US equities do not see sizable gains for awhile. The Fed does not hike rates in September (or if they do, it will be to a lack of fanfare from the markets). Industrial commodities like base metals will continue to drop off a little further as the overall market feels like it has lost momentum and supply gluts remain supreme.

What do you think will happen in the short and medium term?

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Markets

Visualizing the Major Product Exported by Each U.S. State

Canada is the top destination for products from 21 states.

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Graphic showing product categories each state exports worldwide.

Visualizing the Major Product Exported by Each State

The U.S. is the second biggest exporter in the world, accounting for over 8% of global exports.

In this graphic by NeoMam Studios, we analyze the primary product exported by each state, as well as its main destination, utilizing data from the U.S. International Trade Administration.

Canada: The Primary Destination

Canada serves as the largest export market for most of the Midwest, while Mexico holds the top spot as the export destination for much of the Southwest and Southeast. Additionally, Canada stands out as the primary importer of products from 21 states, with China and Germany trailing behind as notable destinations.

StateDestinationTop Product ExportedValue (USD)
Alabama🇩🇪 GermanyTransportation equip.$3,649M
Alaska🇨🇦 CanadaMinerals$576M
Arizona🇲🇽 MexicoMinerals$1,760M
Arkansas🇨🇦 CanadaProcessed Foods$246M
California🇨🇦 CanadaComputer & Electronics$5,093M
Colorado🇰🇷 South KoreaProcessed Foods$545M
Connecticut🇩🇪 GermanyTransportation equip.$1,581M
Delaware🇰🇷 South KoreaAppliances$419M
Florida🇬🇧 UKChemicals$2,447M
Georgia🇨🇦 CanadaMachinery$1,629M
Hawaii🇭🇰 Hong KongTransportation equip.$68M
Idaho🇹🇼 TaiwanComputer & Electronics$394M
Illinois🇨🇦 CanadaTransportation equip.$4,517M
Indiana🇨🇦 CanadaTransportation equip.$6,561M
Iowa🇨🇦 CanadaMachinery$1,598M
Kansas🇲🇽 MexicoAgricultural$1,543M
Kentucky🇨🇦 CanadaTransportation equip.$3,630M
Louisiana🇨🇳 ChinaAgricultural$11,300M
Maine🇨🇦 CanadaOil & Gas$504M
Maryland🇫🇷 FranceTransportation equip.$949M
Massachusetts🇨🇳 ChinaMachinery$1,298M
Michigan🇨🇳 ChinaTransportation equip.$15,361M
Minnesota🇨🇦 CanadaPetroleum & Coal$2,787M
Mississippi🇵🇦 PanamaPetroleum & Coal$2,106M
Missouri🇨🇦 CanadaTransportation equip.$2,390M
Montana🇨🇦 CanadaMinerals$153M
Nebraska🇲🇽 MexicoAgricultural$933M
Nevada🇨🇭 SwitzerlandMetal$1,399M
New Hampshire🇩🇪 GermanyTransportation equip.$695M
New Jersey🇨🇦 CanadaChemicals$2,734M
New Mexico🇲🇽 MexicoComputer & Electronics$2,014M
New York🇨🇭 SwitzerlandMetal $18,262M
North Carolina🇨🇳 ChinaChemicals$4,312M
North Dakota🇨🇦 CanadaPetroleum & Coal$1,441M
Ohio🇨🇦 CanadaTransportation equip.$5,990M
Oklahoma🇨🇦 CanadaMachinery$418M
Oregon🇨🇳 ChinaComputer & Electronics$6,261M
Pennsylvania🇨🇦 CanadaChemicals$2,280M
Rhode Island🇮🇹 ItalyWaste & Scrap$321M
South Carolina🇩🇪 GermanyTransportation equip.$3,774M
South Dakota🇨🇦 CanadaProcessed Foods$297M
Tennessee🇨🇦 CanadaTransportation equip.$2,017M
Texas🇲🇽 MexicoPetroleum & Coal $33,627M
Utah🇬🇧 UKMetal $6,805M
Vermont🇹🇼 TaiwanComputer & Electronics$447M
Virginia🇮🇳 IndiaMinerals$1,799M
Washington🇨🇳 ChinaAgricultural $10,553M
West Virginia🇮🇳 IndiaMinerals$657M
Wisconsin🇨🇦 CanadaMachinery$1,802M
Wyoming🇮🇩 IndonesiaChemicals$200M

When it comes to the types of exports, transportation equipment emerges as the primary source for the majority of states, with minerals and ores, chemicals, and computer and electronics following closely behind.

For instance, North Carolina ships $4.3 billion worth of chemicals to China, marking one of the longest-distance trade flows among states. Meanwhile, Florida boasts one of the most diverse export portfolios, engaging in trade with Europe, South America, and the Caribbean.

Louisiana heavily relies on the export of agricultural products to China, which contributes significantly to its total GDP. Similarly, Michigan’s transportation equipment exports to Canada constitute a noteworthy portion of the state’s GDP.

In Oregon, exports of semiconductors and other computer parts to China, driven by companies like Intel and Micron, play a crucial role in the state’s economy. Meanwhile, Utah predominantly exports primary metal manufacturing goods to the United Kingdom.

The biggest exporter in the country, Texas, sees a significant portion of its GDP attributed to exports to Mexico, further underlining the state’s economic ties with its southern neighbor.

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