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Number Crunching: The Impact of China’s Currency Devaluation

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Number Crunching: The Impact of China’s Currency Devaluation

Number Crunching: The Impact of China’s Currency Devaluation

In the grand scheme of things, China’s mid-August currency devaluation spree was a drop in the bucket. Since the Financial Crisis, countries have routinely printed money, kept rates pegged artificially low, and found other ways to get temporary competitive advantages with cheaper currency.

While the People’s Bank of China has made some questionable interventions, China’s currency itself has been pegged to the US dollar officially or unofficially since its early history. With the US dollar climbing wildly against most global currencies since mid-2014, the yuan climbed along with it. China’s currency appreciated against all other major Asian currencies, which erased the country’s manufacturing cost advantage and trade surplus. In retrospect, it is almost surprising that they kept the reference rate where it was for this long.

The strong reaction from markets and media was more from the angle that even slightest movement made by China can create a ripple effect on fragile global markets. China, for a better lack of an analogy, is a bull in a china shop. Its economy and currency are seen as important bellwethers and when the PBOC makes an announcement, people listen.

That’s why in mid-summer, markets got volatile in a hurry. China devalued its currency by 1.9% on August 11 and made some smaller changes since then. The country also announced adjustments to how it would calculate its onshore reference rate moving forward.

Today’s infographic looks at the reaction in currency markets in three timeframes after the event: 24 hours, one week, and one month after.

Some currencies, like the euro, appreciated against the Chinese Renminbi right away and maintained that momentum. The euro went up 2.06% in the first day, and then continued to appreciate to 5.73% by the end of 30 days. Others swung back and forth wildly: at first the South African rand was up 0.71%, but then it ended as the biggest loser against the yuan at -4.24% over the course of a month.

Despite the mixed reaction from different currency markets, the reason China did this was clear. The country wanted to promote convergence in its onshore and offshore rates, and it has also been trying to woo the IMF for some time to be included in the IMF’s basket of reserve currencies called Special Drawing Rights. The latter move is a part of China’s posturing to eventually better internationalize the yuan.

As a side benefit of the devaluation, China also gets temporary relief in promoting exports at a cheaper price – though this will only last until the next country takes action in the game of currency war hot potato.

Original graphic by: Inovance

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Central Banks

$69 Trillion of World Debt in One Infographic

What share of government world debt does each country owe? See it all broken down in this stunning visualization.

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$69 Trillion of World Debt in One Infographic

Two decades ago, total government debt was estimated to sit at $20 trillion.

Since then, according to the latest figures by the IMF, the number has ballooned to $69.3 trillion with a debt to GDP ratio of 82% — the highest totals in human history.

Which countries owe the most money, and how do these figures compare?

The Regional Breakdown

Let’s start by looking at the continental level, to get an idea of how world debt is divided from a geographical perspective:

RegionDebt to GDPGross Debt (Millions of USD)% of Total World Debt
World81.8%$69,298100.0%
Asia and Pacific79.8%$24,12034.8%
North America100.4%$23,71034.2%
Europe74.2%$16,22523.4%
South America75.0%$2,6993.9%
Africa56.9%$1,3131.9%
Other37.1%$1,2311.8%

In absolute terms, over 90% of global debt is concentrated in North America, Asia Pacific, and Europe — meanwhile, regions like Africa, South America, and other account for less than 10%.

This is not surprising, since advanced economies hold most of the world’s debt (about 75.4%), while emerging or developing economies hold the rest.

World Debt by Country

Now let’s look at individual countries, according to data released by the IMF in October 2019.

It’s worth mentioning that the following numbers are representative of 2018 data, and that for a tiny subset of countries (i.e. Syria) we used the latest available numbers as an estimate.

RankCountryDebt to GDPGross Debt ($B)% of World Total
#1🇺🇸 United States104.3%$21,46531.0%
#2🇯🇵 Japan237.1%$11,78817.0%
#3🇨🇳 China, People's Republic of50.6%$6,7649.8%
#4🇮🇹 Italy132.2%$2,7444.0%
#5🇫🇷 France98.4%$2,7363.9%
#6🇬🇧 United Kingdom86.8%$2,4553.5%
#7🇩🇪 Germany61.7%$2,4383.5%
#8🇮🇳 India68.1%$1,8512.7%
#9🇧🇷 Brazil87.9%$1,6422.4%
#10🇨🇦 Canada89.9%$1,5402.2%
#11🇪🇸 Spain97.1%$1,3862.0%
#12🇲🇽 Mexico53.6%$6550.9%
#13🇰🇷 Korea, Republic of37.9%$6520.9%
#14🇦🇺 Australia41.4%$5880.8%
#15🇧🇪 Belgium102.0%$5430.8%
#16Netherlands52.4%$4790.7%
#17Argentina86.1%$4470.6%
#18Singapore113.6%$4140.6%
#19Greece184.9%$4040.6%
#20Austria73.8%$3370.5%
#21Indonesia30.1%$3080.4%
#22Portugal120.1%$2890.4%
#23Poland48.9%$2860.4%
#24Switzerland40.5%$2860.4%
#25Ireland63.7%$2440.4%
#26Russian Federation14.6%$2420.3%
#27Turkey30.2%$2330.3%
#28Egypt92.7%$2310.3%
#29Pakistan71.7%$2260.3%
#30Israel60.8%$2250.3%
#31Sweden38.5%$2140.3%
#32Thailand42.1%$2130.3%
#33South Africa56.7%$2090.3%
#34Taiwan Province of China35.1%$2070.3%
#35Malaysia55.6%$1990.3%
#36Venezuela182.4%$1800.3%
#37Norway40.0%$1740.3%
#38Colombia52.2%$1730.2%
#39Finland59.3%$1630.2%
#40Saudi Arabia19.0%$1490.2%
#41Iran32.2%$1440.2%
#42Vietnam55.6%$1340.2%
#43Philippines38.9%$1290.2%
#44Denmark34.3%$1210.2%
#45Hungary70.8%$1140.2%
#46Iraq49.3%$1110.2%
#47Nigeria27.3%$1090.2%
#48Bangladesh34.0%$98.10.14%
#49Angola89.0%$94.30.14%
#50Qatar48.6%$93.00.13%
#51Romania36.7%$87.90.13%
#52Lebanon151.0%$85.10.12%
#53Czech Republic32.6%$79.90.12%
#54United Arab Emirates19.1%$79.10.11%
#55Ukraine60.2%$78.80.11%
#56Morocco65.0%$77.00.11%
#57Chile25.6%$76.30.11%
#58Sri Lanka83.3%$74.10.11%
#59Sudan212.1%$72.70.10%
#60Algeria38.3%$66.50.10%
#61New Zealand29.8%$60.50.09%
#62Peru26.1%$58.80.08%
#63Puerto Rico55.5%$56.10.08%
#64Kenya60.1%$52.80.08%
#65Slovak Republic48.9%$52.10.08%
#66Ecuador45.8%$49.60.07%
#67Ethiopia61.0%$49.00.07%
#68Croatia74.6%$45.40.07%
#69Dominican Republic50.5%$43.20.06%
#70Oman53.4%$42.30.06%
#71Jordan94.4%$39.90.06%
#72Ghana59.3%$38.90.06%
#73Slovenia70.4%$38.10.05%
#74Uruguay63.5%$37.90.05%
#75Kazakhstan21.0%$36.30.05%
#76Bahrain94.7%$35.70.05%
#77Costa Rica53.5%$32.30.05%
#78Tunisia77.0%$30.70.04%
#79Belarus47.8%$28.50.04%
#80Serbia54.5%$27.50.04%
#81Myanmar38.2%$26.20.04%
#82Panama39.5%$25.70.04%
#83Cyprus102.5%$25.10.04%
#84Côte d'Ivoire53.2%$22.90.03%
#85Bolivia53.8%$21.80.03%
#86Tanzania37.3%$21.20.03%
#87Zambia78.1%$20.90.03%
#88Kuwait14.7%$20.80.03%
#89Guatemala24.7%$19.40.03%
#90Lithuania34.2%$18.20.03%
#91Syria30.0%$18.00.03%
#92Yemen64.8%$17.90.03%
#93El Salvador67.1%$17.50.03%
#94Cameroon39.1%$15.10.02%
#95Luxembourg21.4%$14.90.02%
#96Jamaica94.4%$14.60.02%
#97Senegal61.6%$14.50.02%
#98Mozambique99.8%$14.40.02%
#99Bulgaria20.4%$13.30.02%
#100Latvia35.9%$12.50.02%
#101Turkmenistan29.1%$11.90.02%
#102Uganda41.4%$11.60.02%
#103Albania69.9%$10.50.02%
#104Uzbekistan20.6%$10.40.02%
#105Lao P.D.R.57.2%$10.40.01%
#106Gabon60.7%$10.20.01%
#107Congo, Republic of87.8%$10.20.01%
#108Trinidad and Tobago45.1%$10.20.01%
#109Iceland37.6%$9.80.01%
#110Honduras40.2%$9.60.01%
#111Mauritius66.2%$9.40.01%
#112Paraguay21.5%$9.00.01%
#113Azerbaijan18.8%$8.80.01%
#114Nepal30.2%$8.80.01%
#115Papua New Guinea35.5%$8.20.01%
#116Bahamas, The63.3%$7.90.01%
#117Zimbabwe37.1%$7.80.01%
#118Georgia44.9%$7.30.01%
#119Congo, Dem. Rep. of the15.3%$7.20.01%
#120Cambodia28.6%$7.00.01%
#121Bosnia and Herzegovina34.3%$6.90.01%
#122Namibia45.8%$6.60.01%
#123Malta45.2%$6.60.01%
#124Mali37.3%$6.40.01%
#125Barbados125.7%$6.40.01%
#126Armenia51.3%$6.40.01%
#127Burkina Faso42.9%$6.10.01%
#128Equatorial Guinea43.3%$5.90.01%
#129Benin41.0%$5.90.01%
#130Madagascar45.7%$5.50.01%
#131Chad48.3%$5.30.01%
#132North Macedonia40.5%$5.10.01%
#133Niger53.8%$5.00.01%
#134Nicaragua37.2%$4.90.01%
#135Guinea38.2%$4.60.01%
#136Kyrgyz Republic56.0%$4.50.01%
#137Mauritania82.9%$4.30.01%
#138Malawi62.9%$4.30.01%
#139Togo76.2%$4.10.01%
#140Montenegro72.6%$4.00.01%
#141Rwanda40.7%$3.90.01%
#142Maldives68.0%$3.60.01%
#143Tajikistan47.9%$3.60.01%
#144Eritrea174.3%$3.50.01%
#145Moldova29.7%$3.40.00%
#146Haiti33.3%$3.20.00%
#147Bhutan102.4%$2.60.00%
#148Sierra Leone63.0%$2.60.00%
#149Estonia8.3%$2.60.00%
#150Fiji46.2%$2.60.00%
#151Suriname72.8%$2.50.00%
#152Cabo Verde124.5%$2.50.00%
#153Aruba84.5%$2.40.00%
#154Botswana12.1%$2.30.00%
#155Guyana52.9%$2.10.00%
#156Burundi58.4%$2.00.00%
#157South Sudan, Republic of42.2%$1.90.00%
#158Belize95.2%$1.80.00%
#159Eswatini35.2%$1.70.00%
#160Antigua and Barbuda89.5%$1.40.00%
#161Gambia, The86.6%$1.40.00%
#162Djibouti48.0%$1.40.00%
#163Afghanistan6.9%$1.40.00%
#164Kosovo17.0%$1.40.00%
#165Liberia39.9%$1.30.00%
#166San Marino77.9%$1.30.00%
#167Saint Lucia64.3%$1.20.00%
#168Lesotho44.5%$1.20.00%
#169Central African Republic49.9%$1.10.00%
#170Guinea-Bissau64.3%$0.90.00%
#171Seychelles56.9%$0.90.00%
#172Grenada63.5%$0.80.00%
#173Saint Vincent and the Grenadines74.5%$0.60.00%
#174Saint Kitts and Nevis60.5%$0.60.00%
#175Vanuatu51.4%$0.50.00%
#176Samoa50.3%$0.40.00%
#177Dominica74.1%$0.40.00%
#178Hong Kong SAR0.1%$0.40.00%
#179Brunei Darussalam2.6%$0.40.00%
#180São Tomé and Príncipe74.5%$0.30.00%
#181Comoros21.0%$0.20.00%
#182Timor-Leste6.1%$0.20.00%
#183Solomon Islands9.4%$0.10.00%
#184Micronesia, Fed. States of20.3%$0.10.00%
#185Nauru58.3%$0.10.00%
#186Marshall Islands25.2%$0.10.00%
#187Kiribati20.6%$0.00.00%
#188Tuvalu28.1%$0.00.00%

In absolute terms, the most indebted nation is the United States, which has a gross debt of $21.5 trillion according to the IMF as of 2018.

If you’re looking for a more precise figure for 2019, the U.S. government’s “Debt to the Penny” dataset puts the amount owing to exactly $23,015,089,744,090.63 as of November 12, 2019.

Of course, the U.S. is also the world’s largest economy in nominal terms, putting the debt to GDP ratio at 104.3%

Other stand outs from the list above include Japan, which has the highest debt to GDP ratio (237.1%), and China , which has increased government debt by almost $2 trillion in just the last two years. Meanwhile, the European economies of Italy and Belgium check the box as other large debtors with ratios topping 100% debt to GDP.

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The Silver Series: The Start of A New Gold-Silver Cycle (Part 1 of 3)

As the decade-long bull run shows signs of slowing, is it time for precious metals to shine? Here’s why it could be the start of a new gold-silver cycle.

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The world has experienced a decade of growth fueled by record-low interest rates, a burgeoning money supply, and historic debt levels – but the good times only last so long.

As the global economy slows and eventually begins to retract, can precious metals offer a useful store of value to investors?

Part 1: The Start of a New Cycle

Today’s infographic comes to us from Endeavour Silver, and it outlines some key indicators that precede a coming gold-silver cycle in which exposure to hard assets may help to protect wealth.

The Start of a New Gold-Silver Cycle

Bankers Blowing Bubbles

Since 2008, central bankers around the world launched a historic market intervention by printing money and bailing out major banks. With cheap and abundant money, this strategy worked so well that it created a bull market in every sector — except for precious metals.

Stock markets, consumer lending, and property values surged. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s assets ballooned, and so did corporate, government, and household debt. By 2018, total debt reached almost $250 trillion worldwide.

Currency vs. Precious Metals

The world awash in unprecedented amounts of currency, and these dollars chase a limited supply of goods. Historically speaking, it’s only a matter of time before the price of goods increases or inflates – eroding the purchasing power of every dollar.

Gold and silver are some of the only assets unaffected by inflation, retaining their value.

Gold and silver are money… everything else is credit.

– J.P. Morgan

The Perfect Story for a Gold-Silver Cycle?

Investors can use several indicators to gauge the beginning of the gold-silver cycle:

  1. Gold/Silver Futures

    Most traders do not trade physical gold and silver, but paper contracts with the promise to buy at a future price. Every week, U.S. commodity exchanges publish the Commitment of Traders “COT” report. This report summarizes the positions (long/short) of traders for a particular commodity.

    Typically, speculators are long and commercial traders are short the price of gold and silver. However, when speculators and commercial traders positions reach near zero, there is usually a big upswing in the price of silver.

  2. Gold-to-Silver Ratio Compression

    As the difference between gold and silver prices decreases (i.e. the compression of the ratio), history suggests silver prices can make big moves upwards in price. The gold-to-silver ratio compression is now at high levels and may eventually revert to its long-term average, which implies a strong movement in prices is imminent for silver.

  3. Scarcity: Declining Silver Production

    Silver production has been declining despite its growing importance as a safe haven hedge, as well as its use in industrial applications and renewable technologies.

  4. The Silver Exception

    Silver is not just for coins, bars, jewelry and the family silverware. It stands out from gold with its practical industrial uses which account for 56.1% of its annual consumption. Silver will continue to be a critical material in solar technology. While photovoltaics currently account for 8% of annual silver consumption, this is set to change with the dramatic increase in the use of solar technologies.

The Price of Gold and Silver

Forecasting the exact price of gold and silver is not a science, but there are clear signs that point to the direction their prices will head. The prices of gold and silver do not accurately reflect a world awash with cheap and easy money, but now may be their time to shine.

Don’t miss another part of the Silver Series by connecting with Visual Capitalist.

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