Markets

Visualizing the Most Populous Countries in the World

Published

2 years ago

December 8, 2020

Dorothy Neufeld

Visualizing the Most Populous Countries in the World

India’s population is projected to surpass China’s as soon as 2022.

While this is consequential on a global economic level, it also leaves other population trends overlooked. For instance, Nigeria is projected to have more people than the U.S., the world’s third-largest country by population, by the year 2050.

This treemap visualization, adapted from PopulationPyramid.net, is an overview of the global population in 2020, showing us the world’s most populous countries.

The 50 Most Populous Countries

China, with a population of 1.44 billion, is the most populous country worldwide.

In 2019, over 60% of its population resided in urban centers, a trend that has seen the portion of city dwellers double over the last 25 years. For context, 83% of the U.S. population lives in cities, while just 35% of India’s population dwells in urban areas.

Together, China and India’s populations make up over 36% of the global total.

	Country	Population (2020)
1	🇨🇳 China	1,439,323,774
2	🇮🇳 India	1,380,004,385
3	🇺🇸 U.S.	331,002,647
4	🇮🇩 Indonesia	273,523,621
5	🇵🇰 Pakistan	220,892,331
6	🇧🇷 Brazil	212,559,409
7	🇳🇬 Nigeria	206,139,587
8	🇧🇩 Bangladesh	164,689,383
9	🇷🇺 Russian Federation	145,934,460
10	🇲🇽 Mexico	128,932,753
11	🇯🇵 Japan	126,476,458
12	🇪🇹 Ethiopia	114,963,583
13	🇵🇭 Philippines	109,581,085
14	🇪🇬 Egypt	102,334,403
15	🇻🇳 Vietnam	97,338,583
16	🇨🇩 D.R. Congo	89,561,404
17	🇹🇷 Turkey	84,339,067
18	🇮🇷 Iran	83,992,953
19	🇩🇪 Germany	83,783,945
20	🇹🇭 Thailand	69,799,978
21	🇬🇧 United Kingdom	67,886,004
22	🇫🇷 France	65,273,512
23	🇮🇹 Italy	60,461,828
24	🇹🇿 Tanzania	59,734,213
25	🇿🇦 South Africa	59,308,690
26	🇲🇲 Myanmar	54,409,794
27	🇰🇪Kenya	53,771,300
28	🇰🇷 Republic of Korea	51,269,183
29	🇨🇴 Colombia	50,882,884
30	🇪🇸 Spain	46,754,783
31	🇺🇬 Uganda	45,741,000
32	🇦🇷 Argentina	45,195,777
33	🇩🇿 Algeria	43,851,043
34	🇸🇩 Sudan	43,849,269
35	🇺🇦 Ukraine	43,733,759
36	🇮🇶 Iraq	40,222,503
37	🇦🇫 Afghanistan	38,928,341
38	🇵🇱 Poland	37,846,605
39	🇨🇦 Canada	37,742,157
40	🇲🇦 Morocco	36,910,558
41	🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia	34,813,867
42	🇺🇿 Uzbekistan	33,469,199
43	🇵🇪 Peru	32,971,846
44	🇦🇴 Angola	32,866,268
45	🇲🇾 Malaysia	32,365,998
46	🇲🇿 Mozambique	31,255,435
47	🇬🇭 Ghana	31,072,945
48	🇾🇪 Yemen	29,825,968
49	🇳🇵 Nepal	29,136,808
50	🇻🇪 Venezuela	28,435,943

Extending over 17,000 islands, Indonesia comes fourth among the world’s most populous countries, standing at 273.5 million people.

Pakistan comes in fifth, with 220.8 million. Karachi, located on the southeastern coast of Pakistan, is home to over 16 million people alone. It is Pakistan’s most populous city, and the seventh-largest city in the world.

Nigeria also makes it onto the list. In just three decades, the country’s population is projected to climb from 206 million to 400 million—growing at a percentage clip that is more than double that of India.

The 50 Least Populous Countries

Combined, the 50 least-populous countries make up under 0.4% of the total world population. By contrast, the top 50 account for 87% of the total.

Unsurprisingly, the world’s low population nations are situated on small islands, often tropical and reliant on tourism.

	Country	Population*
1	🇻🇦 Vatican City	799
2	🇹🇰 Tokelau	1,340
3	🇳🇺 Niue	1,615
4	🇫🇰 Falkland Islands	3,377
5	🇲🇸 Montserrat	4,989
6	🇵🇲 Saint Pierre and Miquelon	5,822
7	🇸🇭 Saint Helena	6,059
8	🇳🇷 Nauru	10,756
9	🇼🇫 Wallis and Futuna	11,432
10	🇹🇻 Tuvalu	11,646
11	🇦🇮 Anguilla	14,869
12	🇨🇰 Cook Islands	17,548
13	🇵🇼 Palau	18,008
14	🇧🇶 Caribbean Netherlands	25,979
15	🇻🇬 British Virgin Islands	30,030
16	🇬🇮 Gibraltar	33,701
17	🇸🇲 San Marino	33,860
18	🇱🇮 Liechtenstein	38,019
19	🇹🇨 Turks and Caicos Islands	38,191
20	🇲🇨 Monaco	38,964
21	🇸🇽 Sint Maarten	42,388
22	🇫🇴 Faroe Islands	48,678
23	🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis	52,823
24	🇦🇸 American Samoa	55,312
25	🇲🇵 Northern Mariana Islands	56,188
26	🇬🇱 Greenland	56,672
27	🇲🇭 Marshall Islands	58,791
28	🇧🇲 Bermuda	62,506
29	🇰🇾 Cayman Islands	64,948
30	🇩🇲 Dominica	71,808
31	🇦🇩 Andorra	77,142
32	🇮🇲 Isle of Man	84,584
33	🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda	97,118
34	🇸🇨 Seychelles	97,739
35	🇻🇮 United States Virgin Islands	104,578
36	🇦🇼 Aruba	106,314
37	🇻🇨 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines	110,589
38	🇹🇴 Tonga	110,940
39	🇬🇩 Grenada	112,003
40	🇫🇲 Micronesia (Fed. States of)	113,815
41	🇰🇮 Kiribati	117,606
42	🇨🇼 Curaçao	163,424
43	🇬🇺 Guam	167,294
44	Channel Islands	172,259
45	🇱🇨 Saint Lucia	182,790
46	🇼🇸 Samoa	197,097
47	🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe	215,056
48	Mayotte	266,150
49	🇵🇫 French Polynesia	279,287
50	🇬🇫 French Guiana	282,731

*Source: United Nations, as of July 1, 2019. Includes territories.

With a total of 799 residents in 2019, Vatican City is the least populated country. Following close behind is the territory of Tokelau, a cluster of islands situated between New Zealand and Hawaii.

The Caribbean island nation of Antigua and Barbuda is also among the smallest populations in the world, with just 97,118 inhabitants. While it may be small in terms of total inhabitants, its population density is another story—with over 222 people per square kilometer. That is roughly 50% higher than China, but about half the population density of India.

Meanwhile, the 33 pacific islands of Kiribati also make the top 50 list of the least populous countries worldwide. With a population of 117,606, Kiribati was a testing site for atomic bombs by the British and Americans during the 1960s. The island reached independence in 1979, after being under crown colonial rule since 1916.

Regional Median Ages

How about the median ages across these populations?

By far, the African region has the lowest median age at 19.8 years old, partially driven by a high birth rate of 4.7 children per woman. In contrast, the global average falls around 2.5 children.

By 2050, Africa’s population will effectively double from 1.3 billion to 2.5 billion.

Region	Annual Rate of Natural Population Increase	Median Age (2020)
Africa	2.5%	19.8 years
Asia	0.9%	32.1 years
Central America	1.2%	28.3 years
Europe	-0.1%	42.7 years
Latin America & Caribbean	0.9%	30.9 years
Northern America	0.3%	38.6 years
Oceania	0.9%	33.5 years
South America	0.9%	32.0 years
World	1.0%	30.9 years

Source: Our World in Data

On the other hand, Europe is the oldest, at 42.7 years for this demographic metric.

With a median age of 47.9, Italy has the second-oldest population in the world, topped only by Japan. Meanwhile, Germany (46.6), Portugal (46.2), and Spain (45.5) fall next in line. If current trends continue, by 2050, half of Europe’s population will be non-working and over the age of 65.

That said, it should be noted that this trend is not exclusive to Europe. In 30 years, 1.5 billion people globally will be over the age of 65, amounting to 16% of the global population.

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Investor Education

Visualizing 90 Years of Stock and Bond Portfolio Performance

How have investment returns for different portfolio allocations of stocks and bonds compared over the last 90 years?

Published

2 days ago

March 22, 2023

Dorothy Neufeld

Visualizing 90 Years of Stock and Bond Portfolio Performance

This was originally posted on Advisor Channel. Sign up to the free mailing list to get beautiful visualizations on financial markets that help advisors and their clients.

Last year, stock and bond returns tumbled after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates at the fastest speed in 40 years. It was the first time in decades that both asset classes posted negative annual investment returns in tandem.

Over four decades, this has happened 2.4% of the time across any 12-month rolling period.

To look at how various stock and bond asset allocations have performed over history—and their broader correlations—the above graphic charts their best, worst, and average returns, using data from Vanguard.

How Has Asset Allocation Impacted Returns?

Based on data between 1926 and 2019, the table below looks at the spectrum of market returns of different asset allocations:

Stock / Bond Portfolio Allocation	Best Annual Return	Worst Annual Return	Average Annual Return
0% / 100%	32.6%	-8.1%	5.3%
10% / 90%	31.2%	-8.2%	6.0%
20% / 80%	29.8%	-10.1%	6.6%
30% / 70%	28.4%	-14.2%	7.2%
40% / 60%	27.9%	-18.4%	7.8%
50% / 50%	32.3%	-22.5%	8.3%
60% / 40%	36.7%	-26.6%	8.8%
70% / 30%	41.1%	-30.7%	9.2%
80% / 20%	45.4%	-34.9%	9.6%
90% / 10%	49.8%	-39.0%	10.0%
100% / 0%	54.2%	-43.1%	10.3%

We can see that a portfolio made entirely of stocks returned 10.3% on average, the highest across all asset allocations. Of course, this came with wider return variance, hitting an annual low of -43% and a high of 54%.

A traditional 60/40 portfolio—which has lost its luster in recent years as low interest rates have led to lower bond returns—saw an average historical return of 8.8%. As interest rates have climbed in recent years, this may widen its appeal once again as bond returns may rise.

Meanwhile, a 100% bond portfolio averaged 5.3% in annual returns over the period. Bonds typically serve as a hedge against portfolio losses thanks to their typically negative historical correlation to stocks.

A Closer Look at Historical Correlations

To understand how 2022 was an outlier in terms of asset correlations we can look at the graphic below:

The last time stocks and bonds moved together in a negative direction was in 1969. At the time, inflation was accelerating and the Fed was hiking interest rates to cool rising costs. In fact, historically, when inflation surges, stocks and bonds have often moved in similar directions.

Underscoring this divergence is real interest rate volatility. When real interest rates are a driving force in the market, as we have seen in the last year, it hurts both stock and bond returns. This is because higher interest rates can reduce the future cash flows of these investments.

Adding another layer is the level of risk appetite among investors. When the economic outlook is uncertain and interest rate volatility is high, investors are more likely to take risk off their portfolios and demand higher returns for taking on higher risk. This can push down equity and bond prices.

On the other hand, if the economic outlook is positive, investors may be willing to take on more risk, in turn potentially boosting equity prices.

Current Investment Returns in Context

Today, financial markets are seeing sharp swings as the ripple effects of higher interest rates are sinking in.

For investors, historical data provides insight on long-term asset allocation trends. Over the last century, cycles of high interest rates have come and gone. Both equity and bond investment returns have been resilient for investors who stay the course.