Markets
The Megacity Economy: How Seven Types of Global Cities Stack Up
Megacity Economy: How Seven Types of Global Cities Stack Up
Back in 1950, close to 30% of the global population lived in cities.
That since has shifted dramatically. By 2050, a whopping 70% of people will live in urban areas – some of which will be megacities housing tens of millions of people.
This trend of urbanization has been a boon to global growth and the economy. In fact, it is estimated today by McKinsey that the 600 top urban centers contribute a whopping 60% to the world’s total GDP.
Seven Types of Global Cities
With so many people moving to urban metropolitan areas, the complexion of cities and their economies change each day.
The Brookings Institute has a new way of classifying these megacities, using various economic indicators.
According to their analysis, here’s what differentiates the seven types of global cities:
Important note: This isn’t intended to be a “ranking” of cities. However, on the infographic, cities are sorted by GDP per capita within each typology, and given a number based on where they stand in terms of this metric. This is just intended to show how wealthy the average citizen is per city, and is not a broader indicator relating to the success or overall ranking of a city.
1. Global Giants
These six cities are the world’s leading economic and financial centers. They are hubs for financial markets and are characterized by large populations and a high concentration of wealth and talent.
Examples: New York City, Tokyo, London
2. Asian Anchors
The six Asian Anchor cities are not as wealthy as the Global Giants, however they leverage attributes such as infrastructure connectivity and talented workforces to attract the most Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) out of any other metro grouping.
Examples: Hong Kong, Seoul, Singapore
3. Emerging Gateways
These 28 cities are large business and transportation hubs for major national and regional markets in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East. While they have grown to reach middle-income status, they fall behind other global cities on many key competitiveness factors such as GDP and FDI.
Examples: Mumbai, Cape Town, Mexico City, Hangzhou
4. Factory China
There are 22 second and third-tier Chinese cities reliant on export manufacturing to power economic growth and international engagement. Although Factory China displays a GDP growth rate that is well above average, it fails to reach average levels of innovation, talent, and connectivity.
Examples: Shenyang, Changchun, Chengdu
5. Knowledge Capitals
These are 19 mid-sized cities in the U.S. and Europe that are considered centers of innovation, with elite research universities producing talented workforces.
Examples: San Francisco, Boston, Zurich
6. American Middleweights
These 16 mid-sized U.S. metro areas are relatively wealthy and house strong universities, as well as other anchor institutions.
Examples: Orlando, Sacramento, Phoenix
7. International Middleweights
These 26 cities span across several continents, internationally connected by human and investment capital flow. Like their American middleweight counterparts, growth has slowed for these cities since the 2008 recession.
Examples: Vancouver, Melbourne, Brussels, Tel Aviv
Markets
Beyond Big Names: The Case for Small- and Mid-Cap Stocks
Small- and mid-cap stocks have historically outperformed large caps. What are the opportunities and risks to consider?
Beyond Big Names: The Case for Small- and Mid-Cap Stocks
Over the last 35 years, small- and mid-cap stocks have outperformed large caps, making them an attractive choice for investors.
According to data from Yahoo Finance, from February 1989 to February 2024, large-cap stocks returned +1,664% versus +2,062% for small caps and +3,176% for mid caps. Â
This graphic, sponsored by New York Life Investments, explores their return potential along with the risks to consider.
Higher Historical Returns
If you made a $100 investment in baskets of small-, mid-, and large-cap stocks in February 1989, what would each grouping be worth today?
Small Caps | Mid Caps | Large Caps | |
---|---|---|---|
Starting value (February 1989) | $100 | $100 | $100 |
Ending value (February 2024) | $2,162 | $3,276 | $1,764 |
Source: Yahoo Finance (2024). Small caps, mid caps, and large caps are represented by the S&P 600, S&P 400, and S&P 500 respectively.
Mid caps delivered the strongest performance since 1989, generating 86% more than large caps.
This superior historical track record is likely the result of the unique position mid-cap companies find themselves in. Mid-cap firms have generally successfully navigated early stage growth and are typically well-funded relative to small caps. And yet they are more dynamic and nimble than large-cap companies, allowing them to respond quicker to the market cycle.
Small caps also outperformed over this timeframe. They earned 23% more than large caps.Â
Higher Volatility
However, higher historical returns of small- and mid-cap stocks came with increased risk. They both endured greater volatility than large caps.Â
Small Caps | Mid Caps | Large Caps | |
---|---|---|---|
Total Volatility | 18.9% | 17.4% | 14.8% |
Source: Yahoo Finance (2024). Small caps, mid caps, and large caps are represented by the S&P 600, S&P 400, and S&P 500 respectively.
Small-cap companies are typically earlier in their life cycle and tend to have thinner financial cushions to withstand periods of loss relative to large caps. As a result, they are usually the most volatile group followed by mid caps. Large-cap companies, as more mature and established players, exhibit the most stability in their stock prices.
Investing in small caps and mid caps requires a higher risk tolerance to withstand their price swings. For investors with longer time horizons who are capable of enduring higher risk, current market pricing strengthens the case for stocks of smaller companies.
Attractive Valuations
Large-cap stocks have historically high valuations, with their forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) trading above their 10-year average, according to analysis conducted by FactSet.
Conversely, the forward P/E ratios of small- and mid-cap stocks seem to be presenting a compelling entry point.Â
Small Caps/Large Caps | Mid Caps/Large Caps | |
---|---|---|
Relative Forward P/E Ratios | 0.71 | 0.75 |
Discount | 29% | 25% |
Source: Yardeni Research (2024). Small caps, mid caps, and large caps are represented by the S&P 600, S&P 400, and S&P 500 respectively.
Looking at both groups’ relative forward P/E ratios (small-cap P/E ratio divided by large-cap P/E ratio, and mid-cap P/E ratio divided by large-cap P/E ratio), small and mid caps are trading at their steepest discounts versus large caps since the early 2000s.
Discovering Small- and Mid-Cap Stocks
Growth-oriented investors looking to add equity exposure could consider incorporating small and mid caps into their portfolios.
With superior historical returns and relatively attractive valuations, small- and mid-cap stocks present a compelling opportunity for investors capable of tolerating greater volatility.
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