Technology
The Massive Impact of EVs on Commodities in One Chart
The Massive Impact of EVs on Commodities
How demand would change in a 100% EV world
The Chart of the Week is a weekly Visual Capitalist feature on Fridays.
What would happen if you flipped a switch, and suddenly every new car that came off assembly lines was electric?
It’s obviously a thought experiment, since right now EVs have close to just 1% market share worldwide. We’re still years away from EVs even hitting double-digit demand on a global basis, and the entire supply chain is built around the internal combustion engine, anyways.
At the same time, however, the scenario is interesting to consider. One recent projection, for example, put EVs at a 16% penetration by 2030 and then 51% by 2040. This could be conservative depending on the changing regulatory environment for manufacturers – after all, big markets like China, France, and the U.K. have recently announced that they plan on banning gas-powered vehicles in the near future.
The Thought Experiment
We discovered this “100% EV world” thought experiment in a UBS report that everyone should read. As a part of their UBS Evidence Lab initiative, they tore down a Chevy Bolt to see exactly what is inside, and then had 39 of the bank’s analysts weigh in on the results.
After breaking down the metals and other materials used in the vehicle, they noticed a considerable amount of variance from what gets used in a standard gas-powered car. It wasn’t just the battery pack that made a difference – it was also the body and the permanent-magnet synchronous motor that had big implications.
As a part of their analysis, they extrapolated the data for a potential scenario where 100% of the world’s auto demand came from Chevy Bolts, instead of the current auto mix.
The Implications
If global demand suddenly flipped in this fashion, here’s what would happen:
Material | Demand increase | Notes |
---|---|---|
Lithium | 2,898% | Needed in all lithium-ion batteries |
Cobalt | 1,928% | Used in the Bolt's NMC cathode |
Rare Earths | 655% | Bolt uses neodymium in permanent magnet motor |
Graphite | 524% | Used in the anode of lithium-ion batteries |
Nickel | 105% | Used in the Bolt's NMC cathode |
Copper | 22% | Used in permanent magnet motor and wiring |
Manganese | 14% | Used in the Bolt's NMC cathode |
Aluminum | 13% | Used to reduce weight of vehicle |
Silicon | 0% | Bolt uses 6-10x more semiconductors |
Steel | -1% | Uses 7% less steel, but fairly minimal impact on market |
PGMs | -53% | Catalytic converters not needed in EVs |
Some caveats we think are worth noting:
The Bolt is not a Tesla
The Bolt uses an NMC cathode formulation (nickel, manganese, and cobalt in a 1:1:1 ratio), versus Tesla vehicles which use NCA cathodes (nickel, cobalt, and aluminum, in an estimated 16:3:1 ratio). Further, the Bolt uses an permanent-magnet synchronous motor, which is different from Tesla’s AC induction motor – the key difference there being rare earth usage.
Big Markets, small markets:
Lithium, cobalt, and graphite have tiny markets, and they will explode in size with any notable increase in EV demand. The nickel market, which is more than $20 billion per year, will also more than double in this scenario. It’s also worth noting that the Bolt uses low amounts of nickel in comparison to Tesla cathodes, which are 80% nickel.
Meanwhile, the 100% EV scenario barely impacts the steel market, which is monstrous to begin with. The same can be said for silicon, even though the Bolt uses 6-10x more semiconductors than a regular car. The market for PGMs like platinum and palladium, however, gets decimated in this hypothetical scenario – that’s because their use as catalysts in combustion engines are a primary source of demand.
Technology
Charted: The Jobs Most Impacted by AI
We visualized the results of an analysis by the World Economic Forum, which uncovered the jobs most impacted by AI.
Charted: The Jobs Most Impacted by AI
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Large language models (LLMs) and other generative AI tools haven’t been around for very long, but they’re expected to have far-reaching impacts on the way people do their jobs. With this in mind, researchers have already begun studying the potential impacts of this transformative technology.
In this graphic, we’ve visualized the results of a World Economic Forum report, which estimated how different job departments will be exposed to AI disruption.
Data and Methodology
To identify the job departments most impacted by AI, researchers assessed over 19,000 occupational tasks (e.g. reading documents) to determine if they relied on language. If a task was deemed language-based, it was then determined how much human involvement was needed to complete that task.
With this analysis, researchers were then able to estimate how AI would impact different occupational groups.
Department | Large impact (%) | Small impact (%) | No impact (%) |
---|---|---|---|
IT | 73 | 26 | 1 |
Finance | 70 | 21 | 9 |
Customer Sales | 67 | 16 | 17 |
Operations | 65 | 18 | 17 |
HR | 57 | 41 | 2 |
Marketing | 56 | 41 | 3 |
Legal | 46 | 50 | 4 |
Supply Chain | 43 | 18 | 39 |
In our graphic, large impact refers to tasks that will be fully automated or significantly altered by AI technologies. Small impact refers to tasks that have a lesser potential for disruption.
Where AI will make the biggest impact
Jobs in information technology (IT) and finance have the highest share of tasks expected to be largely impacted by AI.
Within IT, tasks that are expected to be automated include software quality assurance and customer support. On the finance side, researchers believe that AI could be significantly useful for bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing.
Still interested in AI? Check out this graphic which ranked the most commonly used AI tools in 2023.
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