Markets
Mapped: The World’s Largest Exporters in 2018
Visualizing the World’s Largest Exporters in 2018
Trillions of dollars of goods get traded around the world every year.
In 2018, total global exports exceeded $19 trillion, including specialized goods falling into almost every possible category imaginable.
Whether you’re talking about German cars, Bangladeshi t-shirts, Saudi oil, or Swiss milk chocolate, just about anything is available on the world market for a price – and the world’s largest exporting countries aim to take advantage.
Ranked: The 15 Largest Exporters in 2018
Today’s visualization comes to us from HowMuch.net, and it resizes countries based on their most recent export numbers, as per data from the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Let’s take a look at how the field breaks down:
| Rank | Country | Exports (2018, $M) | Share of Global Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 🇨🇳 China | $2,487,045 | 12.8% |
| #2 | 🇺🇸 United States | $1,664,085 | 8.6% |
| #3 | 🇩🇪 Germany | $1,560,816 | 8.0% |
| #4 | 🇯🇵 Japan | $738,403 | 3.8% |
| #5 | 🇳🇱 Netherlands | $722,668 | 3.7% |
| #6 | 🇰🇷 Korea, Rep. | $604,860 | 3.1% |
| #7 | 🇫🇷 France | $581,816 | 3.0% |
| #8 | 🇭🇰 Hong Kong, China | $569,241 | 2.9% |
| #9 | 🇮🇹 Italy | $546,643 | 2.8% |
| #10 | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | $485,711 | 2.5% |
| #11 | 🇧🇪 Belgium | $466,724 | 2.4% |
| #12 | 🇲🇽 Mexico | $450,572 | 2.3% |
| #13 | 🇨🇦 Canada | $449,845 | 2.3% |
| #14 | 🇷🇺 Russia | $444,008 | 2.3% |
| #15 | 🇸🇬 Singapore | $412,629 | 2.1% |
Leading the list of the world’s largest exporters is China, with a whopping $2.5 trillion of goods sent abroad in 2018. If you add in Hong Kong’s numbers, China holds 15.7% of the global export total — roughly equal to Japan, Netherlands, South Korea, France, and Singapore combined.
Coming next on the list is the U.S., which exports about $1.7 trillion of goods each year. After that comes Germany, which is the only other country to export over $1 trillion of goods per year.
Comparing U.S. and Chinese Exports
What does China export, and how does that compare to a more developed economy such as the United States?
Using data from MIT’s Observatory of Economic Complexity, we can see the broad breakdown of exports in both countries:
| 🇨🇳 China (Exports) | Share | 🇺🇸 U.S. (Exports) | Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Machines | 48.5% | Machines | 22.1% | |
| Textiles | 9.9% | Transportation | 14.9% | |
| Metals | 7.1% | Chemical Products | 13.7% | |
| Chemical Products | 4.9% | Mineral Products | 11.4% | |
| Plastics and Rubbers | 4.0% | Instruments | 6.8% | |
| Instruments | 3.2% | Plastics and Rubbers | 5.5% | |
| Transportation | 3.2% | Vegetable Products | 5.1% | |
| Footwear and Headwear | 2.6% | Metals | 4.8% | |
| Stone and Glass | 1.7% | Foodstuffs | 3.3% | |
| Mineral Products | 1.3% | Precious Metals | 3.1% | |
| Animal Hides | 1.2% | Animal Products | 2.2% | |
| Other/Misc | 12.4% | Paper Goods | 2.1% | |
| Textiles | 1.7% | |||
| Other/Misc | 3.3% |
On first glance, it’s clear that China’s exports are reliant on one heavy-hitting category (Machines) to drive a whopping 48.5% of total export value. Within that broad category of machines, there are many narrower categories, including:
- Broadcasting equipment (9.6% of total exports)
- Computers (6.1%)
- Office machine parts (3.8%)
- Integrated circuits (3.3%)
- Telephones (2.6%)
- Electrical transformers (1.3%)
- Semiconductor devices (1.2%)
- Video displays (1.1%)
For the United States, machines are still important at 22.1% of exports, but three other broad categories also surpass the 10% mark: transportation, chemical products, and mineral products. This means the U.S. is generally more diversified in its major exports.
For more, see the largest export of each state on this map.
Markets
Visualizing Portfolio Return Expectations, by Country
This graphic shows the gap in portfolio return expectations between investors and advisors around the world, revealing a range of market outlooks.
Visualizing Portfolio Return Expectations, by Country
This was originally posted on Advisor Channel. Sign up to the free mailing list to get beautiful visualizations on financial markets that help advisors and their clients.
How do investors’ return expectations differ from those of advisors? How does this expectation gap shift across countries?
Despite 2022 being the worst year for stock markets in over a decade, investors around the world appear confident about the long-term performance of their portfolios. These convictions point towards resilience across global economies, driven by strong labor markets and moderating inflation.
While advisors are optimistic, their expectations are more conservative overall.
This graphic shows the return expectation gap by country between investors and financial professionals in 2023, based on data from Natixis.
Expectation Gap by Country
Below, we show the return expectation gap by country, based on a survey of 8,550 investors and 2,700 financial professionals:
| Long-Term Annual Return Expectations | Investors | Financial Professionals | Expectations Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 U.S. | 15.6% | 7.0% | 2.2X |
| 🇨🇱 Chile | 15.1% | 14.5% | 1.0X |
| 🇲🇽 Mexico | 14.7% | 14.0% | 1.1X |
| 🇸🇬 Singapore | 14.5% | 14.2% | 1.0X |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | 13.6% | 8.7% | 1.6X |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | 12.5% | 6.9% | 1.8X |
| 🇭🇰 Hong Kong SAR | 12.4% | 7.6% | 1.6X |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | 10.6% | 6.5% | 1.6X |
| 🇪🇸 Spain | 10.6% | 7.6% | 1.4X |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | 10.1% | 7.0% | 1.4X |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | 9.6% | 6.3% | 1.5X |
| 🇨🇭 Switzerland | 9.6% | 6.9% | 1.4X |
| 🇫🇷 France | 8.9% | 6.6% | 1.3X |
| 🇬🇧 UK | 8.1% | 6.2% | 1.3X |
| 🌐 Global | 12.8% | 9.0% | 1.4X |
Investors in the U.S. have the highest long-term annual return expectations, at 15.6%. The U.S. also has the highest expectations gap across countries, with investors’ expectations more than double that of advisors.
Likely influencing investor convictions are the outsized returns seen in the last decade, led by big tech. This year is no exception, as a handful of tech giants are seeing soaring returns, lifting the overall market.
From a broader perspective, the S&P 500 has returned 11.5% on average annually since 1928.
Following next in line were investors in Chile and Mexico with return expectations of 15.1% and 14.7%, respectively. Unlike many global markets, the MSCI Chile Index posted double-digit returns in 2022.
Global financial hub, Singapore, has the lowest expectations gap across countries.
Investors in the UK and Europe, have the most moderate return expectations overall. Confidence has been weighed down by geopolitical tensions, high interest rates, and dismal economic data.
Return Expectations Across Asset Classes
What are the expected returns for different asset classes over the next decade?
A separate report by Vanguard used a quantitative model to forecast returns through to 2033. For U.S. equities, it projects 4.1-6.1% in annualized returns. Global equities are forecast to have 6.4-8.4% returns, outperforming U.S. stocks over the next decade.
Bonds, meanwhile, are forecast to see 3.6-4.6% annualized returns for the U.S. aggregate market, while U.S. Treasuries are projected to average 3.3-4.3% annually.
While it’s impossible to predict the future, we can see a clear expectation gap not only between countries, but between advisors, clients, and other models. Factors such as inflation, interest rates, and the ability for countries to weather economic headwinds will likely have a significant influence on future portfolio returns.
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