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Mapped: Where are the World’s Ongoing Conflicts Today?

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Mapping World's Ongoing Conflicts

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Where are the World’s Ongoing Conflicts Today?

We live in an era of relative peace compared to most of history, however, this does not mean that there are no conflicts in the world today.

This map using data from the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) reveals where the world’s 27 ongoing conflicts are today, and what type of conflicts they are.

Note: conflicts are categorized by definitions laid out by the CFR.

Detailing the Conflicts

Many people alive today have never lived through a war on their country’s soil, especially those in the West. But conflict, wars, and violence are by no means things of the past.

According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), as of Q2’2021 alone:

  • Violence against civilians resulted in over 5,000 deaths worldwide
  • Battle related deaths numbered over 18,000
  • Explosion/remote violence led to more than 4,000 deaths
  • Riots resulted in over 600 fatalities

Most of the world’s conflicts are concentrated in Asia and Africa and the most common forms are territorial disputes and civil wars. While terrorism often strikes fear in people, only three of the world’s ongoing conflicts are linked to terrorism, according to the CFR.

Conflict NameTypeCountries Involved
Civil War in South SudanCivil War🇸🇸 South Sudan
War in YemenCivil War🇾🇪 Yemen
Civil War in LibyaCivil War🇱🇾 Libya
War in AfghanistanCivil War🇦🇫 Afghanistan
Civil War in SyriaCivil War🇸🇾 Syria
Instability in IraqCivil War🇮🇶 Iraq
Criminal Violence in MexicoCriminal🇲🇽 Mexico
Confrontation of U.S. & IranInterstates🇺🇸 United States
🇮🇷 Iran
Conflict of India & PakistanInterstates🇮🇳 India
🇵🇰 Pakistan
North Korea CrisisInterstates🇺🇸 United States
🇰🇵 North Korea
Violence in the DRCPolitical Instability🇨🇩 DRC
Instability in EgyptPolitical Instability🇪🇬 Egypt
Political Instability in LebanonPolitical Instability🇱🇧 Lebanon
Instability in VenezuelaPolitical Instability🇻🇪 Venezuela
Tigray War in EthiopiaPolitical Instability🇪🇹 Ethiopia
Boko Haram in NigeriaSectarian🇳🇬 Nigeria
Violence in Central African RepublicSectarian🇨🇫 Central African Republic
Rohingya Crisis in MyanmarSectarian🇲🇲 Myanmar
Nagorno-Karabakh ConflictTerritorial Disputes🇦🇲 Armenia
🇦🇿 Azerbaijan
Conflict in UkraineTerritorial Disputes🇺🇦 Ukraine
🇷🇺 Russia
Israeli-Palestine ConflictTerritorial Disputes🇮🇱 Israel
🇵🇸 Palestine
Turkey & Armed Kurdish GroupsTerritorial Disputes🇹🇷 Turkey
South China Sea DisputesTerritorial Disputes🇨🇳 China
🇻🇳 Vietnam
🇵🇭 Philippines
Tensions in East China SeaTerritorial Disputes🇨🇳 China
🇯🇵 Japan
Destabilization in MaliTerrorism🇲🇱 Mali
Al-Shabab in SomaliaTerrorism🇸🇴 Somalia
Islamist Militancy in PakistanTerrorism🇵🇰 Pakistan

As an example of a more typical conflict, Myanmar’s civil unrest began in February 2020 when the military overthrew the democratically elected government and arrested the country’s leader Aung San Suu Kyi. The civilian population has been protesting heavily but to no avail. According to a BBC report, more than 860 people have been killed and around 5,000 have been detained.

This is just one of the many examples of persistent violence today including recent events like Mexico’s midterm election violence, Ethiopia’s fighting in the country’s Tigray region, and the fighting between Israel and Palestine over the Sheikh Jarrah evictions.

Finally, though the United States military has now withdrawn from Afghanistan, and the Taliban has taken control of the country, the outlook for the country remains uncertain.

War and Peace

While there are conflicts today, deaths from violence and wars have and wars have decreased over time. For example, battle death rates in state-based conflicts have reduced significantly in a period from 1946 to 2016.

However, according to the UN, although battle related deaths have been decreasing, the number of conflicts occurring in the last few years has actually been on the rise (they have simply remained less deadly). Most conflicts have been waged by non-state actors, like organized criminal groups and political militias.

The UN found that the most common causes of conflict today are:

  • Regional tensions
  • Breakdowns in the rule of law
  • Co-opted or absent state institutions
  • Illicit economic gain
  • Scarcity of resources exacerbated by climate change

Traditional war between countries and war-related deaths may be becoming a thing of the past, but the threat of violence is still very real. Many countries know this as they continue to build up armies and spend significant amounts on military and defense.

The Future of Warfare

War and conflict are still extremely relevant in the 21st century and impact millions of people. However, traditional warfare may be changing its shape and may become less deadly as a result.

For instance, issues like climate change will create further exacerbations on conflicts, and new forms of technological and cyber warfare could threaten countries’ elections and manipulate populations.

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Economy

The Bloc Effect: International Trade with Geopolitical Allies on the Rise

Rising geopolitical tensions are shaping the future of international trade, but what is the effect on trading among G7 and BRICS countries?

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Map showing the change in the share of a country’s exports going to their own trading blocs from 2018 to 2023.

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The following content is sponsored by The Hinrich Foundation

The Bloc Effect: International Trade with Allies on the Rise

International trade has become increasingly fragmented over the last five years as countries have shifted to trading more with their geopolitical allies.

This graphic from The Hinrich Foundation, the first in a three-part series covering the future of trade, provides visual context to the growing divide in trade in G7 and pre-expansion BRICS countries, which are used as proxies for geopolitical blocs.  

Trade Shifts in G7 and BRICS Countries

This analysis uses IMF data to examine differences in shares of exports within and between trading blocs from 2018 to 2023. For example, we looked at the percentage of China’s exports with other BRICS members as well as with G7 members to see how these proportions shifted in percentage points (pp) over time.

Countries traded nearly $270 billion more with allies in 2023 compared to 2018. This shift came at the expense of trade with rival blocs, which saw a decline of $314 billion.

CountryChange in Exports Within Bloc (pp)Change in Exports With Other Bloc (pp)
🇮🇳 India0.03.9
🇷🇺 Russia0.7-3.8
🇮🇹 Italy0.8-0.7
🇨🇦 Canada0.9-0.7
🇫🇷 France1.0-1.1
🇪🇺 EU1.1-1.5
🇩🇪 Germany1.4-2.1
🇿🇦 South Africa1.51.5
🇺🇸 U.S.1.6-0.4
🇯🇵 Japan2.0-1.7
🇨🇳 China2.1-5.2
🇧🇷 Brazil3.7-3.3
🇬🇧 UK10.20.5

All shifts reported are in percentage points. For example, the EU saw its share of exports to G7 countries rise from 74.3% in 2018 to 75.4% in 2023, which equates to a 1.1 percentage point increase. 

The UK saw the largest uptick in trading with other countries within the G7 (+10.2 percentage points), namely the EU, as the post-Brexit trade slump to the region recovered. 

Meanwhile, the U.S.-China trade dispute caused China’s share of exports to the G7 to fall by 5.2 percentage points from 2018 to 2023, the largest decline in our sample set. In fact, partly as a result of the conflict, the U.S. has by far the highest number of harmful tariffs in place. 

The Russia-Ukraine War and ensuing sanctions by the West contributed to Russia’s share of exports to the G7 falling by 3.8 percentage points over the same timeframe.  

India, South Africa, and the UK bucked the trend and continued to witness advances in exports with the opposing bloc. 

Average Trade Shifts of G7 and BRICS Blocs

Though results varied significantly on a country-by-country basis, the broader trend towards favoring geopolitical allies in international trade is clear.

BlocChange in Exports Within Bloc (pp)Change in Exports With Other Bloc (pp)
Average2.1-1.1
BRICS1.6-1.4
G7 incl. EU2.4-1.0

Overall, BRICS countries saw a larger shift away from exports with the other bloc, while for G7 countries the shift within their own bloc was more pronounced. This implies that though BRICS countries are trading less with the G7, they are relying more on trade partners outside their bloc to make up for the lost G7 share. 

A Global Shift in International Trade and Geopolitical Proximity

The movement towards strengthening trade relations based on geopolitical proximity is a global trend. 

The United Nations categorizes countries along a scale of geopolitical proximity based on UN voting records.

According to the organization’s analysis, international trade between geopolitically close countries rose from the first quarter of 2022 (when Russia first invaded Ukraine) to the third quarter of 2023 by over 6%. Conversely, trade with geopolitically distant countries declined.  

The second piece in this series will explore China’s gradual move away from using the U.S. dollar in trade settlements.

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Visit the Hinrich Foundation to learn more about the future of geopolitical trade

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