Business
Mapped: The Uneven Recovery of U.S. Small Businesses
Mapped: The Uneven Recovery of U.S. Small Businesses
Small businesses are the backbone of the U.S. economy, employing nearly half of the private sector workforce.
Unfortunately, lockdown and work-from-home measures brought about by COVID-19 have disproportionately affected small businesses – particularly in the leisure and hospitality sectors.
As metro-level data from Opportunity Insights points out, geography makes a great deal of difference in the proportion of U.S. small businesses that have flipped their open sign. While some cities are mostly back to business as usual, others are in a situation where the majority of small businesses are still shuttered.
The Big Picture
In the U.S. as a whole, data suggests that nearly a quarter of all small businesses remain closed. Of course, the situation on the ground differs from place to place. Here’s how cities around the country are doing, sorted by percentage of small businesses closed as of September 2020:
Metros | Small Businesses Closed | Small Businesses Closed (Leisure & Hosp.) |
---|---|---|
San Francisco | -49% | -65% |
New Orleans | -45% | -72% |
Honolulu | -41% | -39% |
Washington DC | -37% | -55% |
San Jose | -35% | -41% |
Portland | -34% | -46% |
San Antonio | -34% | -60% |
Sacramento | -33% | -43% |
Boston | -33% | -42% |
Oakland | -32% | -52% |
Austin | -32% | -65% |
Bakersfield | -31% | -64% |
Houston | -30% | -58% |
Seattle | -28% | -47% |
San Diego | -28% | -41% |
Baltimore | -28% | -43% |
Detroit | -28% | -44% |
Los Angeles | -27% | -39% |
Chicago | -27% | -37% |
Tucson | -27% | -37% |
Atlanta | -26% | -33% |
Fresno | -26% | -50% |
Oklahoma City | -26% | -56% |
Cleveland | -26% | -39% |
Denver | -26% | -56% |
Indianapolis | -25% | -29% |
Denver | -25% | -38% |
El Paso | -25% | -34% |
Philadelphia | -24% | -34% |
Tulsa | -23% | -40% |
Albuquerque | -23% | -42% |
Colorado Springs | -23% | -37% |
Louisville | -23% | -25% |
Miami | -23% | -38% |
Fort Worth | -22% | -34% |
Las Vegas | -22% | -35% |
Tampa | -22% | -45% |
Milwaukee | -22% | -30% |
New York City | -21% | -40% |
Dallas | -21% | -38% |
Memphis | -21% | -37% |
Minneapolis | -21% | -36% |
Nashville | -21% | -39% |
Columbus | -21% | -35% |
Phoenix | -19% | -36% |
Jacksonville | -18% | -35% |
Salt Lake City | -18% | -24% |
Charlotte | -18% | -42% |
Raleigh | -16% | -34% |
Wichita | -15% | -29% |
Kansas City | -15% | -24% |
Omaha | -13% | -14% |
New Orleans and the Bay Area are still experiencing rates of small business closures that are almost double the national median.
Small businesses in the leisure and hospitality sector have been particularly hard hit, with 37% reporting no transaction data.
Getting Back to Business
Some cities are seeing rates of small business operation that are nearing pre-pandemic levels.
Of the cities covered in the data set, Omaha had the highest rate of small businesses open.
Still Shuttered
In cities with a large technology sector, such as San Francisco and Austin, COVID-19 is shaking up the economic patterns as entire companies switched to remote working almost overnight. This is bad news for the constellation of restaurants and services that cater to those workers.
Likewise, cities that have an economy built around serving visitors – Honolulu and New Orleans, for example – have seen a very high rate of small business closures as vacations and conferences have been paused indefinitely.
As the pandemic drags on, many of these temporary closures are looking to be permanent. Yelp recently reported that of the restaurants marked as closed on their platform, 61% are shut down permanently. As well, businesses in the retail and nightlife categories also saw more than half of closures become permanent.
In Remembrance of Revenue
A business being completely closed is a definitive measure, but it doesn’t tell the whole story. Even for businesses that remained open, revenue is often far below pre-pandemic rates.
Once again, businesses in the leisure and hospitality sector have been hit the hardest, with revenue falling by almost half since the beginning of 2020.
At present, it’s hard to predict when, or even if, economic activity will completely recover. Though travel and some level of in-office work will eventually ramp back up, the small business landscape will continue to face major upheaval in the meantime.
United States
Charted: U.S. Median House Prices vs. Income
We chart the ever-widening gap between median incomes and the median price of houses in America, using data from the Federal Reserve from 1984 to 2022.
Houses in America Now Cost Six Times the Median Income
This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
As of 2023, an American household hoping to buy a median-priced home, needs to make at least $100,000 a year. In some cities, they need to make nearly 3–4x that amount.
The median household income in the country is currently well below that $100,000 threshold. To look at the trends between median incomes and median house prices through the years, we charted their movement using the following datasets data from the Federal Reserve:
- Median household income (1984–2022).
- Median Sales Price of Houses Sold (1963–2023).
Importantly this graphic does not make allowances for actual household disposable income, nor how monthly mortgage payments change depending on the interest rates at the time. Finally, both datasets are in current U.S. dollars, meaning they are not adjusted for inflation.
Timeline: Median House Prices vs. Income in America
In 1984, the median annual income for an American household stood at $22,420, and the median house sales price for the first quarter of the year came in at $78,200. The house sales price-to-income ratio stood at 3.49.
By pure arithmetic, this is the most affordable houses have been in the U.S. since the Federal Reserve began tracking this data, as seen in the table below.
A hidden caveat of course, was inflation: running rampant towards the end of the 70s and the start of the 80s. While it fell significantly in the next five years, in 1984 the 30-year fixed rate was close to 14%, meaning a significant chunk of household income went to interest payments.
Date | Median House Sales Price | Median Household Income | Price-to-Income Ratio |
---|---|---|---|
1984-01-01 | $78,200 | $22,420 | 3.49 |
1985-01-01 | $82,800 | $23,620 | 3.51 |
1986-01-01 | $88,000 | $24,900 | 3.53 |
1987-01-01 | $97,900 | $26,060 | 3.76 |
1988-01-01 | $110,000 | $27,230 | 4.04 |
1989-01-01 | $118,000 | $28,910 | 4.08 |
1990-01-01 | $123,900 | $29,940 | 4.14 |
1991-01-01 | $120,000 | $30,130 | 3.98 |
1992-01-01 | $119,500 | $30,640 | 3.90 |
1993-01-01 | $125,000 | $31,240 | 4.00 |
1994-01-01 | $130,000 | $32,260 | 4.03 |
1995-01-01 | $130,000 | $34,080 | 3.81 |
1996-01-01 | $137,000 | $35,490 | 3.86 |
1997-01-01 | $145,000 | $37,010 | 3.92 |
1998-01-01 | $152,200 | $38,890 | 3.91 |
1999-01-01 | $157,400 | $40,700 | 3.87 |
2000-01-01 | $165,300 | $41,990 | 3.94 |
2001-01-01 | $169,800 | $42,230 | 4.02 |
2002-01-01 | $188,700 | $42,410 | 4.45 |
2003-01-01 | $186,000 | $43,320 | 4.29 |
2004-01-01 | $212,700 | $44,330 | 4.80 |
2005-01-01 | $232,500 | $46,330 | 5.02 |
2006-01-01 | $247,700 | $48,200 | 5.14 |
2007-01-01 | $257,400 | $50,230 | 5.12 |
2008-01-01 | $233,900 | $50,300 | 4.65 |
2009-01-01 | $208,400 | $49,780 | 4.19 |
2010-01-01 | $222,900 | $49,280 | 4.52 |
2011-01-01 | $226,900 | $50,050 | 4.53 |
2012-01-01 | $238,400 | $51,020 | 4.67 |
2013-01-01 | $258,400 | $53,590 | 4.82 |
2014-01-01 | $275,200 | $53,660 | 5.13 |
2015-01-01 | $289,200 | $56,520 | 5.12 |
2016-01-01 | $299,800 | $59,040 | 5.08 |
2017-01-01 | $313,100 | $61,140 | 5.12 |
2018-01-01 | $331,800 | $63,180 | 5.25 |
2019-01-01 | $313,000 | $68,700 | 4.56 |
2020-01-01 | $329,000 | $68,010 | 4.84 |
2021-01-01 | $369,800 | $70,780 | 5.22 |
2022-01-01 | $433,100 | $74,580 | 5.81 |
Note: The median house sale price listed in this table and in the chart is from the first quarter of each year. As a result the ratio can vary between quarters of each year.
The mid-2000s witnessed an explosive surge in home prices, eventually culminating in a housing bubble and subsequent crash—an influential factor in the 2008 recession. Subprime mortgages played a pivotal role in this scenario, as they were issued to buyers with poor credit and then bundled into seemingly more attractive securities for financial institutions. However, these loans eventually faltered as economic circumstances changed.
In response to the recession and to stimulate economic demand, the Federal Reserve reduced interest rates, consequently lowering mortgage rates.
While this measure aimed to make homeownership more accessible, it also contributed to a significant increase in housing prices in the following years. Additionally, a new generation entering the home-buying market heightened demand. Simultaneously, a scarcity of new construction and a surge in investors and corporations converting housing units into rental properties led to a shortage in supply, exerting upward pressure on prices.
As a result, median house prices are now nearly 6x the median household income in America.
How Does Unaffordable Housing Affect the U.S. Economy?
When housing costs exceed a significant portion of household income, families are forced to cut back on other essential expenditures, dampening consumer spending. Given how expanding housing supply helped drive U.S. economic growth in the 20th century, the current constraints in the country are especially ironic.
Unaffordable housing also stifles mobility, as individuals may be reluctant to relocate for better job opportunities due to housing constraints. On the flip side, many cities are seeing severe labor shortages as many lower-wage workers simply cannot afford to live in the city. Both phenomena affect market efficiency and productivity growth.
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