Markets
Mapped: GDP Growth Forecasts by Country, in 2023
Mapped: GDP Growth Forecasts by Country, in 2023
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Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine early last year, talk of global recession has dominated the outlook for 2023.
High inflation, spurred by rising energy costs, has tested GDP growth. Tightening monetary policy in the U.S., with interest rates jumping from roughly 0% to over 4% in 2022, has historically preceded a downturn about one to two years later.
For European economies, energy prices are critical. The good news is that prices have fallen recently since March highs, but the continent remains on shaky ground.
The above infographic maps GDP growth forecasts by country for the year ahead, based on projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) October 2022 Outlook and January 2023 update.
2023 GDP Growth Outlook
The world economy is projected to see just 2.9% GDP growth in 2023, down from 3.2% projected for 2022.
This is a 0.2% increase since the October 2022 Outlook thanks in part to China’s reopening, higher global demand, and slowing inflation projected across certain countries in the year ahead.
With this in mind, we show GDP growth forecasts for 191 jurisdictions given multiple economic headwinds—and a few emerging bright spots in 2023.
Country / Region | 2023 Real GDP % Change (Projected) |
---|---|
🇦🇱 Albania | 2.5% |
🇩🇿 Algeria | 2.6% |
🇦🇴 Angola | 3.4% |
🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda | 5.6% |
🇦🇷 Argentina* | 2.0% |
🇦🇲 Armenia | 3.5% |
🇦🇼 Aruba | 2.0% |
🇦🇺 Australia* | 1.6% |
🇦🇹 Austria | 1.0% |
🇦🇿 Azerbaijan | 2.5% |
🇧🇭 Bahrain | 3.0% |
🇧🇩 Bangladesh | 6.0% |
🇧🇧 Barbados | 5.0% |
🇧🇾 Belarus | 0.2% |
🇧🇪 Belgium | 0.4% |
🇧🇿 Belize | 2.0% |
🇧🇯 Benin | 6.2% |
🇧🇹 Bhutan | 4.3% |
🇧🇴 Bolivia | 3.2% |
🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 2.0% |
🇧🇼 Botswana | 4.0% |
🇧🇷 Brazil* | 1.2% |
🇧🇳 Brunei Darussalam | 3.3% |
🇧🇬 Bulgaria | 3.0% |
🇧🇫 Burkina Faso | 4.8% |
🇧🇮 Burundi | 4.1% |
🇨🇻 Cabo Verde | 4.8% |
🇨🇲 Cameroon | 4.6% |
🇰🇭 Cambodia | 6.2% |
🇨🇦 Canada* | 1.5% |
🇨🇫 Central African Republic | 3.0% |
🇹🇩 Chad | 3.4% |
🇨🇱 Chile | -1.0% |
🇨🇳 China* | 5.3% |
🇨🇴 Colombia | 2.2% |
🇰🇲 Comoros | 3.4% |
🇨🇷 Costa Rica | 2.9% |
🇨🇮 Côte d'Ivoire | 6.5% |
🇭🇷 Croatia | 3.5% |
🇨🇾 Cyprus | 2.5% |
🇨🇿 Czech Republic | 1.5% |
🇨🇩 Democratic Republic of the Congo | 6.7% |
🇩🇰 Denmark | 0.6% |
🇩🇯 Djibouti | 5.0% |
🇩🇲 Dominica | 4.9% |
🇩🇴 Dominican Republic | 4.5% |
🇪🇨 Ecuador | 2.7% |
🇪🇬 Egypt* | 4.0% |
🇸🇻 El Salvador | 1.7% |
🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea | -3.1% |
🇪🇷 Eritrea | 2.9% |
🇪🇪 Estonia | 1.8% |
🇸🇿 Eswatini | 1.8% |
🇪🇹 Ethiopia | 5.3% |
🇫🇯 Fiji | 6.9% |
🇫🇮 Finland | 0.5% |
🇫🇷 France* | 0.7% |
🇲🇰 North Macedonia | 3.0% |
🇬🇦 Gabon | 3.7% |
Georgia | 4.0% |
Germany* | 0.1% |
Ghana | 2.8% |
Greece | 1.8% |
Grenada | 3.6% |
Guatemala | 3.2% |
Guinea | 5.1% |
Guinea-Bissau | 4.5% |
Guyana | 25.2% |
Haiti | 0.5% |
Honduras | 3.5% |
Hong Kong SAR | 3.9% |
Hungary | 1.8% |
Iceland | 2.9% |
India* | 6.1% |
Indonesia* | 4.8% |
Iraq | 4.0% |
Ireland | 4.0% |
Iran* | 2.0% |
Israel | 3.0% |
Italy* | 0.6% |
Jamaica | 3.0% |
Japan* | 1.8% |
Jordan | 2.7% |
Kazakhstan* | 4.3% |
Kenya | 5.1% |
Kiribati | 2.4% |
South Korea* | 1.7% |
Kosovo | 3.5% |
Kuwait | 2.6% |
Kyrgyz Republic | 3.2% |
Lao P.D.R. | 3.1% |
Latvia | 1.6% |
Lesotho | 1.6% |
Liberia | 4.2% |
Libya | 17.9% |
Lithuania | 1.1% |
Luxembourg | 1.1% |
Macao SAR | 56.7% |
Madagascar | 5.2% |
🇲🇼 Malawi | 2.5% |
🇲🇾 Malaysia* | 4.4% |
🇲🇻 Maldives | 6.1% |
🇲🇱 Mali | 5.3% |
🇲🇹 Malta | 3.3% |
🇲🇭 Marshall Islands | 3.2% |
🇲🇷 Mauritania | 4.8% |
🇲🇺 Mauritius | 5.4% |
🇲🇽 Mexico* | 1.7% |
🇫🇲 Micronesia | 2.9% |
🇲🇩 Moldova | 2.3% |
🇲🇳 Mongolia | 5.0% |
🇲🇪 Montenegro | 2.5% |
🇲🇦 Morocco | 3.1% |
🇲🇿 Mozambique | 4.9% |
🇲🇲 Myanmar | 3.3% |
🇳🇦 Namibia | 3.2% |
🇳🇷 Nauru | 2.0% |
🇳🇵 Nepal | 5.0% |
🇳🇱 Netherlands* | 0.6% |
🇳🇿 New Zealand | 1.9% |
🇳🇮 Nicaragua | 3.0% |
🇳🇪 Niger | 7.3% |
🇳🇬 Nigeria* | 3.2% |
🇳🇴 Norway | 2.6% |
🇴🇲 Oman | 4.1% |
🇵🇰 Pakistan* | 2.0% |
🇵🇼 Palau | 12.3% |
🇵🇦 Panama | 4.0% |
🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea | 5.1% |
🇵🇾 Paraguay | 4.3% |
🇵🇪 Peru | 2.6% |
🇵🇭 Philippines* | 5.0% |
🇵🇱 Poland* | 0.3% |
🇵🇹 Portugal | 0.7% |
🇵🇷 Puerto Rico | 0.4% |
🇶🇦 Qatar | 2.4% |
🇨🇬 Republic of Congo | 4.6% |
🇷🇴 Romania | 3.1% |
🇷🇺 Russia* | 0.3% |
🇷🇼 Rwanda | 6.7% |
🇼🇸 Samoa | 4.0% |
🇸🇲 San Marino | 0.8% |
🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe | 2.6% |
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia* | 2.6% |
🇸🇳 Senegal | 8.1% |
🇷🇸 Serbia | 2.7% |
🇸🇨 Seychelles | 5.2% |
🇸🇱 Sierra Leone | 3.3% |
🇸🇬 Singapore | 2.3% |
🇸🇰 Slovak Republic | 1.5% |
🇸🇮 Slovenia | 1.7% |
🇸🇧 Solomon Islands | 2.6% |
🇸🇴 Somalia | 3.1% |
🇿🇦 South Africa* | 1.2% |
🇸🇸 South Sudan | 5.6% |
🇪🇸 Spain* | 1.1% |
🇱🇰 Sri Lanka | -3.0% |
🇰🇳 St. Kitts and Nevis | 4.8% |
🇱🇨 St. Lucia | 5.8% |
🇻🇨 St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 6.0% |
🇸🇩 Sudan | 2.6% |
🇸🇷 Suriname | 2.3% |
🇸🇪 Sweden | -0.1% |
🇨🇭 Switzerland | 0.8% |
🇹🇼 Taiwan | 2.8% |
🇹🇯 Tajikistan | 4.0% |
🇹🇿 Tanzania | 5.2% |
🇹🇭 Thailand* | 3.7% |
🇧🇸 The Bahamas | 4.1% |
🇬🇲 The Gambia | 6.0% |
🇹🇱 Timor-Leste | 4.2% |
🇹🇬 Togo | 6.2% |
🇹🇴 Tonga | 2.9% |
🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago | 3.5% |
🇹🇳 Tunisia | 1.6% |
🇹🇷 Turkey* | 3.0% |
🇹🇲 Turkmenistan | 2.3% |
🇹🇻 Tuvalu | 3.5% |
🇺🇬 Uganda | 5.9% |
🇺🇦 Ukraine | N/A |
🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates | 4.2% |
🇬🇧 United Kingdom* | -0.6% |
🇺🇲 U.S.* | 1.4% |
🇺🇾 Uruguay | 3.6% |
🇺🇿 Uzbekistan | 4.7% |
🇻🇺 Vanuatu | 3.1% |
🇻🇪 Venezuela | 6.5% |
🇻🇳 Vietnam | 6.2% |
West Bank and Gaza | 3.5% |
🇾🇪 Yemen | 3.3% |
🇿🇲 Zambia | 4.0% |
🇿🇼 Zimbabwe | 2.8% |
*Reflect updated figures from the January 2023 IMF Update.
The U.S. is forecast to see 1.4% GDP growth in 2023, up from 1.0% seen in the last October projection.
Still, signs of economic weakness can be seen in the growing wave of tech layoffs, foreshadowed as a white-collar or ‘Patagonia-vest’ recession. Last year, 88,000 tech jobs were cut and this trend has continued into 2023. Major financial firms have also followed suit. Still, unemployment remains fairly steadfast, at 3.5% as of December 2022. Going forward, concerns remain around inflation and the path of interest rate hikes, though both show signs of slowing.
Across Europe, the average projected GDP growth rate is 0.7% for 2023, a sharp decline from the 2.1% forecast for last year.
Both Germany and Italy are forecast to see slight growth, at 0.1% and 0.6%, respectively. Growth forecasts were revised upwards since the IMF’s October release. However, an ongoing energy crisis exposes the manufacturing sector to vulnerabilities, with potential spillover effects to consumers and businesses, and overall Euro Area growth.
China remains an open question. In 2023, growth is predicted to rise 5.2%, higher than many large economies. While its real estate sector has shown signs of weakness, the recent opening on January 8th, following 1,016 days of zero-Covid policy, could boost demand and economic activity.
A Long Way to Go
The IMF has stated that 2023 will feel like a recession for much of the global economy. But whether it is headed for a recovery or a sharper decline remains unknown.
Today, two factors propping up the global economy are lower-than-expected energy prices and resilient private sector balance sheets. European natural gas prices have sunk to levels seen before the war in Ukraine. During the height of energy shocks, firms showed a notable ability to withstand astronomical energy prices squeezing their finances. They are also sitting on significant cash reserves.
On the other hand, inflation is far from over. To counter this effect, many central banks will have to use measures to rein in prices. This may in turn have a dampening effect on economic growth and financial markets, with unknown consequences.
As economic data continues to be released over the year, there may be a divergence between consumer sentiment and whether things are actually changing in the economy. Where the economy is heading in 2023 will be anyone’s guess.
Markets
Will Tesla Lose Its Spot in the Magnificent Seven?
We visualize the recent performance of the Magnificent Seven stocks, uncovering a clear divergence between the group’s top and bottom names.
Will Tesla Lose Its Spot in the Magnificent Seven?
This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
In this graphic, we visualize the year-to-date (YTD) performance of the “Magnificent Seven”, a leading group of U.S. tech stocks that gained prominence in 2023 as the replacement of FAANG stocks.
All figures are as of March 12, 2024, and are listed in the table below.
Rank | Company | YTD Change (%) |
---|---|---|
1 | Nvidia | 90.8 |
2 | Meta | 44.3 |
3 | Amazon | 16.9 |
4 | Microsoft | 12 |
5 | 0.2 | |
6 | Apple | -6.7 |
7 | Tesla | -28.5 |
From these numbers, we can see a clear divergence in performance across the group.
Nvidia and Meta Lead
Nvidia is the main hero of this show, setting new all-time highs seemingly every week. The chipmaker is currently the world’s third most valuable company, with a valuation of around $2.2 trillion. This puts it very close to Apple, which is currently valued at $2.7 trillion.
The second best performer of the Magnificent Seven has been Meta, which recently re-entered the trillion dollar club after falling out of favor in 2022. The company saw a massive one-day gain of $197 billion on Feb 2, 2024.
Apple and Tesla in the Red
Tesla has lost over a quarter of its value YTD as EV hype continues to fizzle out. Other pure play EV stocks like Rivian and Lucid are also down significantly in 2024.
Meanwhile, Apple shares have struggled due to weakening demand for its products in China, as well as the company’s lack of progress in the artificial intelligence (AI) space.
Investors may have also been disappointed to hear that Apple’s electric car project, which started a decade ago, has been scrapped.
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