Mapped: GDP Growth Forecasts by Country, in 2023
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine early last year, talk of global recession has dominated the outlook for 2023.
High inflation, spurred by rising energy costs, has tested GDP growth. Tightening monetary policy in the U.S., with interest rates jumping from roughly 0% to over 4% in 2022, has historically preceded a downturn about one to two years later.
For European economies, energy prices are critical. The good news is that prices have fallen recently since March highs, but the continent remains on shaky ground.
The above infographic maps GDP growth forecasts by country for the year ahead, based on projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) October 2022 Outlook and January 2023 update.
2023 GDP Growth Outlook
The world economy is projected to see just 2.9% GDP growth in 2023, down from 3.2% projected for 2022.
This is a 0.2% increase since the October 2022 Outlook thanks in part to China’s reopening, higher global demand, and slowing inflation projected across certain countries in the year ahead.
With this in mind, we show GDP growth forecasts for 191 jurisdictions given multiple economic headwinds—and a few emerging bright spots in 2023.
|Country / Region||2023 Real GDP % Change (Projected)|
|🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda||5.6%|
|🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina||2.0%|
|🇧🇳 Brunei Darussalam||3.3%|
|🇧🇫 Burkina Faso||4.8%|
|🇨🇻 Cabo Verde||4.8%|
|🇨🇫 Central African Republic||3.0%|
|🇨🇷 Costa Rica||2.9%|
|🇨🇮 Côte d'Ivoire||6.5%|
|🇨🇿 Czech Republic||1.5%|
|🇨🇩 Democratic Republic of the Congo||6.7%|
|🇩🇴 Dominican Republic||4.5%|
|🇸🇻 El Salvador||1.7%|
|🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea||-3.1%|
|🇲🇰 North Macedonia||3.0%|
|Hong Kong SAR||3.9%|
|🇲🇭 Marshall Islands||3.2%|
|🇳🇿 New Zealand||1.9%|
|🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea||5.1%|
|🇵🇷 Puerto Rico||0.4%|
|🇨🇬 Republic of Congo||4.6%|
|🇸🇲 San Marino||0.8%|
|🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe||2.6%|
|🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia*||2.6%|
|🇸🇱 Sierra Leone||3.3%|
|🇸🇰 Slovak Republic||1.5%|
|🇸🇧 Solomon Islands||2.6%|
|🇿🇦 South Africa*||1.2%|
|🇸🇸 South Sudan||5.6%|
|🇱🇰 Sri Lanka||-3.0%|
|🇰🇳 St. Kitts and Nevis||4.8%|
|🇱🇨 St. Lucia||5.8%|
|🇻🇨 St. Vincent and the Grenadines||6.0%|
|🇧🇸 The Bahamas||4.1%|
|🇬🇲 The Gambia||6.0%|
|🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago||3.5%|
|🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates||4.2%|
|🇬🇧 United Kingdom*||-0.6%|
|West Bank and Gaza||3.5%|
*Reflect updated figures from the January 2023 IMF Update.
The U.S. is forecast to see 1.4% GDP growth in 2023, up from 1.0% seen in the last October projection.
Still, signs of economic weakness can be seen in the growing wave of tech layoffs, foreshadowed as a white-collar or ‘Patagonia-vest’ recession. Last year, 88,000 tech jobs were cut and this trend has continued into 2023. Major financial firms have also followed suit. Still, unemployment remains fairly steadfast, at 3.5% as of December 2022. Going forward, concerns remain around inflation and the path of interest rate hikes, though both show signs of slowing.
Across Europe, the average projected GDP growth rate is 0.7% for 2023, a sharp decline from the 2.1% forecast for last year.
Both Germany and Italy are forecast to see slight growth, at 0.1% and 0.6%, respectively. Growth forecasts were revised upwards since the IMF’s October release. However, an ongoing energy crisis exposes the manufacturing sector to vulnerabilities, with potential spillover effects to consumers and businesses, and overall Euro Area growth.
China remains an open question. In 2023, growth is predicted to rise 5.2%, higher than many large economies. While its real estate sector has shown signs of weakness, the recent opening on January 8th, following 1,016 days of zero-Covid policy, could boost demand and economic activity.
A Long Way to Go
The IMF has stated that 2023 will feel like a recession for much of the global economy. But whether it is headed for a recovery or a sharper decline remains unknown.
Today, two factors propping up the global economy are lower-than-expected energy prices and resilient private sector balance sheets. European natural gas prices have sunk to levels seen before the war in Ukraine. During the height of energy shocks, firms showed a notable ability to withstand astronomical energy prices squeezing their finances. They are also sitting on significant cash reserves.
On the other hand, inflation is far from over. To counter this effect, many central banks will have to use measures to rein in prices. This may in turn have a dampening effect on economic growth and financial markets, with unknown consequences.
As economic data continues to be released over the year, there may be a divergence between consumer sentiment and whether things are actually changing in the economy. Where the economy is heading in 2023 will be anyone’s guess.
Charted: What are Retail Investors Interested in Buying in 2023?
What key themes and strategies are retail investors looking at for the rest of 2023? Preview: AI is a popular choice.
Charted: Retail Investors’ Top Picks for 2023
U.S. retail investors, enticed by a brief pause in the interest rate cycle, came roaring back in the early summer. But what are their investment priorities for the second half of 2023?
We visualized the data from Public’s 2023 Retail Investor Report, which surveyed 1,005 retail investors on their platform, asking “which investment strategy or themes are you interested in as part of your overall investment strategy?”
Survey respondents ticked all the options that applied to them, thus their response percentages do not sum to 100%.
Where Are Retail Investors Putting Their Money?
By far the most popular strategy for retail investors is dividend investing with 50% of the respondents selecting it as something they’re interested in.
Dividends can help supplement incomes and come with tax benefits (especially for lower income investors or if the dividend is paid out into a tax-deferred account), and can be a popular choice during more inflationary times.
|Investment Strategy||Percent of Respondents|
|Total Stock Market Index||36%|
|Gold & Precious Metals||23%|
Meanwhile, the hype around AI hasn’t faded, with 36% of the respondents saying they’d be interested in investing in the theme—including juggernaut chipmaker Nvidia. This is tied for second place with Total Stock Market Index investing.
Treasury Bills (30%) represent the safety anchoring of the portfolio but the ongoing climate crisis is also on investors’ minds with Renewable Energy (33%) and EVs (27%) scoring fairly high on the interest list.
Commodities and Inflation-Protection stocks on the other hand have fallen out of favor.
Come on Barbie, Let’s Go Party…
Another interesting takeaway pulled from the survey is how conversations about prevailing companies—or the buzz around them—are influencing trades. The platform found that public investors in Mattel increased 6.6 times after the success of the ‘Barbie’ movie.
Bud Light also saw a 1.5x increase in retail investors, despite receiving negative attention from their fans after the company did a beer promotion campaign with trans influencer Dylan Mulvaney.
Given the origin story of a large chunk of American retail investors revolves around GameStop and AMC, these insights aren’t new, but they do reveal a persisting trend.
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