Markets
Mapped: GDP Growth Forecasts by Country, in 2023
Mapped: GDP Growth Forecasts by Country, in 2023
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Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine early last year, talk of global recession has dominated the outlook for 2023.
High inflation, spurred by rising energy costs, has tested GDP growth. Tightening monetary policy in the U.S., with interest rates jumping from roughly 0% to over 4% in 2022, has historically preceded a downturn about one to two years later.
For European economies, energy prices are critical. The good news is that prices have fallen recently since March highs, but the continent remains on shaky ground.
The above infographic maps GDP growth forecasts by country for the year ahead, based on projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) October 2022 Outlook and January 2023 update.
2023 GDP Growth Outlook
The world economy is projected to see just 2.9% GDP growth in 2023, down from 3.2% projected for 2022.
This is a 0.2% increase since the October 2022 Outlook thanks in part to China’s reopening, higher global demand, and slowing inflation projected across certain countries in the year ahead.
With this in mind, we show GDP growth forecasts for 191 jurisdictions given multiple economic headwinds—and a few emerging bright spots in 2023.
Country / Region | 2023 Real GDP % Change (Projected) |
---|---|
🇦🇱 Albania | 2.5% |
🇩🇿 Algeria | 2.6% |
🇦🇴 Angola | 3.4% |
🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda | 5.6% |
🇦🇷 Argentina* | 2.0% |
🇦🇲 Armenia | 3.5% |
🇦🇼 Aruba | 2.0% |
🇦🇺 Australia* | 1.6% |
🇦🇹 Austria | 1.0% |
🇦🇿 Azerbaijan | 2.5% |
🇧🇭 Bahrain | 3.0% |
🇧🇩 Bangladesh | 6.0% |
🇧🇧 Barbados | 5.0% |
🇧🇾 Belarus | 0.2% |
🇧🇪 Belgium | 0.4% |
🇧🇿 Belize | 2.0% |
🇧🇯 Benin | 6.2% |
🇧🇹 Bhutan | 4.3% |
🇧🇴 Bolivia | 3.2% |
🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 2.0% |
🇧🇼 Botswana | 4.0% |
🇧🇷 Brazil* | 1.2% |
🇧🇳 Brunei Darussalam | 3.3% |
🇧🇬 Bulgaria | 3.0% |
🇧🇫 Burkina Faso | 4.8% |
🇧🇮 Burundi | 4.1% |
🇨🇻 Cabo Verde | 4.8% |
🇨🇲 Cameroon | 4.6% |
🇰🇭 Cambodia | 6.2% |
🇨🇦 Canada* | 1.5% |
🇨🇫 Central African Republic | 3.0% |
🇹🇩 Chad | 3.4% |
🇨🇱 Chile | -1.0% |
🇨🇳 China* | 5.3% |
🇨🇴 Colombia | 2.2% |
🇰🇲 Comoros | 3.4% |
🇨🇷 Costa Rica | 2.9% |
🇨🇮 Côte d'Ivoire | 6.5% |
🇭🇷 Croatia | 3.5% |
🇨🇾 Cyprus | 2.5% |
🇨🇿 Czech Republic | 1.5% |
🇨🇩 Democratic Republic of the Congo | 6.7% |
🇩🇰 Denmark | 0.6% |
🇩🇯 Djibouti | 5.0% |
🇩🇲 Dominica | 4.9% |
🇩🇴 Dominican Republic | 4.5% |
🇪🇨 Ecuador | 2.7% |
🇪🇬 Egypt* | 4.0% |
🇸🇻 El Salvador | 1.7% |
🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea | -3.1% |
🇪🇷 Eritrea | 2.9% |
🇪🇪 Estonia | 1.8% |
🇸🇿 Eswatini | 1.8% |
🇪🇹 Ethiopia | 5.3% |
🇫🇯 Fiji | 6.9% |
🇫🇮 Finland | 0.5% |
🇫🇷 France* | 0.7% |
🇲🇰 North Macedonia | 3.0% |
🇬🇦 Gabon | 3.7% |
Georgia | 4.0% |
Germany* | 0.1% |
Ghana | 2.8% |
Greece | 1.8% |
Grenada | 3.6% |
Guatemala | 3.2% |
Guinea | 5.1% |
Guinea-Bissau | 4.5% |
Guyana | 25.2% |
Haiti | 0.5% |
Honduras | 3.5% |
Hong Kong SAR | 3.9% |
Hungary | 1.8% |
Iceland | 2.9% |
India* | 6.1% |
Indonesia* | 4.8% |
Iraq | 4.0% |
Ireland | 4.0% |
Iran* | 2.0% |
Israel | 3.0% |
Italy* | 0.6% |
Jamaica | 3.0% |
Japan* | 1.8% |
Jordan | 2.7% |
Kazakhstan* | 4.3% |
Kenya | 5.1% |
Kiribati | 2.4% |
South Korea* | 1.7% |
Kosovo | 3.5% |
Kuwait | 2.6% |
Kyrgyz Republic | 3.2% |
Lao P.D.R. | 3.1% |
Latvia | 1.6% |
Lesotho | 1.6% |
Liberia | 4.2% |
Libya | 17.9% |
Lithuania | 1.1% |
Luxembourg | 1.1% |
Macao SAR | 56.7% |
Madagascar | 5.2% |
🇲🇼 Malawi | 2.5% |
🇲🇾 Malaysia* | 4.4% |
🇲🇻 Maldives | 6.1% |
🇲🇱 Mali | 5.3% |
🇲🇹 Malta | 3.3% |
🇲🇭 Marshall Islands | 3.2% |
🇲🇷 Mauritania | 4.8% |
🇲🇺 Mauritius | 5.4% |
🇲🇽 Mexico* | 1.7% |
🇫🇲 Micronesia | 2.9% |
🇲🇩 Moldova | 2.3% |
🇲🇳 Mongolia | 5.0% |
🇲🇪 Montenegro | 2.5% |
🇲🇦 Morocco | 3.1% |
🇲🇿 Mozambique | 4.9% |
🇲🇲 Myanmar | 3.3% |
🇳🇦 Namibia | 3.2% |
🇳🇷 Nauru | 2.0% |
🇳🇵 Nepal | 5.0% |
🇳🇱 Netherlands* | 0.6% |
🇳🇿 New Zealand | 1.9% |
🇳🇮 Nicaragua | 3.0% |
🇳🇪 Niger | 7.3% |
🇳🇬 Nigeria* | 3.2% |
🇳🇴 Norway | 2.6% |
🇴🇲 Oman | 4.1% |
🇵🇰 Pakistan* | 2.0% |
🇵🇼 Palau | 12.3% |
🇵🇦 Panama | 4.0% |
🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea | 5.1% |
🇵🇾 Paraguay | 4.3% |
🇵🇪 Peru | 2.6% |
🇵🇭 Philippines* | 5.0% |
🇵🇱 Poland* | 0.3% |
🇵🇹 Portugal | 0.7% |
🇵🇷 Puerto Rico | 0.4% |
🇶🇦 Qatar | 2.4% |
🇨🇬 Republic of Congo | 4.6% |
🇷🇴 Romania | 3.1% |
🇷🇺 Russia* | 0.3% |
🇷🇼 Rwanda | 6.7% |
🇼🇸 Samoa | 4.0% |
🇸🇲 San Marino | 0.8% |
🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe | 2.6% |
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia* | 2.6% |
🇸🇳 Senegal | 8.1% |
🇷🇸 Serbia | 2.7% |
🇸🇨 Seychelles | 5.2% |
🇸🇱 Sierra Leone | 3.3% |
🇸🇬 Singapore | 2.3% |
🇸🇰 Slovak Republic | 1.5% |
🇸🇮 Slovenia | 1.7% |
🇸🇧 Solomon Islands | 2.6% |
🇸🇴 Somalia | 3.1% |
🇿🇦 South Africa* | 1.2% |
🇸🇸 South Sudan | 5.6% |
🇪🇸 Spain* | 1.1% |
🇱🇰 Sri Lanka | -3.0% |
🇰🇳 St. Kitts and Nevis | 4.8% |
🇱🇨 St. Lucia | 5.8% |
🇻🇨 St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 6.0% |
🇸🇩 Sudan | 2.6% |
🇸🇷 Suriname | 2.3% |
🇸🇪 Sweden | -0.1% |
🇨🇭 Switzerland | 0.8% |
🇹🇼 Taiwan | 2.8% |
🇹🇯 Tajikistan | 4.0% |
🇹🇿 Tanzania | 5.2% |
🇹🇭 Thailand* | 3.7% |
🇧🇸 The Bahamas | 4.1% |
🇬🇲 The Gambia | 6.0% |
🇹🇱 Timor-Leste | 4.2% |
🇹🇬 Togo | 6.2% |
🇹🇴 Tonga | 2.9% |
🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago | 3.5% |
🇹🇳 Tunisia | 1.6% |
🇹🇷 Turkey* | 3.0% |
🇹🇲 Turkmenistan | 2.3% |
🇹🇻 Tuvalu | 3.5% |
🇺🇬 Uganda | 5.9% |
🇺🇦 Ukraine | N/A |
🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates | 4.2% |
🇬🇧 United Kingdom* | -0.6% |
🇺🇲 U.S.* | 1.4% |
🇺🇾 Uruguay | 3.6% |
🇺🇿 Uzbekistan | 4.7% |
🇻🇺 Vanuatu | 3.1% |
🇻🇪 Venezuela | 6.5% |
🇻🇳 Vietnam | 6.2% |
West Bank and Gaza | 3.5% |
🇾🇪 Yemen | 3.3% |
🇿🇲 Zambia | 4.0% |
🇿🇼 Zimbabwe | 2.8% |
*Reflect updated figures from the January 2023 IMF Update.
The U.S. is forecast to see 1.4% GDP growth in 2023, up from 1.0% seen in the last October projection.
Still, signs of economic weakness can be seen in the growing wave of tech layoffs, foreshadowed as a white-collar or ‘Patagonia-vest’ recession. Last year, 88,000 tech jobs were cut and this trend has continued into 2023. Major financial firms have also followed suit. Still, unemployment remains fairly steadfast, at 3.5% as of December 2022. Going forward, concerns remain around inflation and the path of interest rate hikes, though both show signs of slowing.
Across Europe, the average projected GDP growth rate is 0.7% for 2023, a sharp decline from the 2.1% forecast for last year.
Both Germany and Italy are forecast to see slight growth, at 0.1% and 0.6%, respectively. Growth forecasts were revised upwards since the IMF’s October release. However, an ongoing energy crisis exposes the manufacturing sector to vulnerabilities, with potential spillover effects to consumers and businesses, and overall Euro Area growth.
China remains an open question. In 2023, growth is predicted to rise 5.2%, higher than many large economies. While its real estate sector has shown signs of weakness, the recent opening on January 8th, following 1,016 days of zero-Covid policy, could boost demand and economic activity.
A Long Way to Go
The IMF has stated that 2023 will feel like a recession for much of the global economy. But whether it is headed for a recovery or a sharper decline remains unknown.
Today, two factors propping up the global economy are lower-than-expected energy prices and resilient private sector balance sheets. European natural gas prices have sunk to levels seen before the war in Ukraine. During the height of energy shocks, firms showed a notable ability to withstand astronomical energy prices squeezing their finances. They are also sitting on significant cash reserves.
On the other hand, inflation is far from over. To counter this effect, many central banks will have to use measures to rein in prices. This may in turn have a dampening effect on economic growth and financial markets, with unknown consequences.
As economic data continues to be released over the year, there may be a divergence between consumer sentiment and whether things are actually changing in the economy. Where the economy is heading in 2023 will be anyone’s guess.
Markets
Beyond Big Names: The Case for Small- and Mid-Cap Stocks
Small- and mid-cap stocks have historically outperformed large caps. What are the opportunities and risks to consider?
Beyond Big Names: The Case for Small- and Mid-Cap Stocks
Over the last 35 years, small- and mid-cap stocks have outperformed large caps, making them an attractive choice for investors.
According to data from Yahoo Finance, from February 1989 to February 2024, large-cap stocks returned +1,664% versus +2,062% for small caps and +3,176% for mid caps.
This graphic, sponsored by New York Life Investments, explores their return potential along with the risks to consider.
Higher Historical Returns
If you made a $100 investment in baskets of small-, mid-, and large-cap stocks in February 1989, what would each grouping be worth today?
Small Caps | Mid Caps | Large Caps | |
---|---|---|---|
Starting value (February 1989) | $100 | $100 | $100 |
Ending value (February 2024) | $2,162 | $3,276 | $1,764 |
Source: Yahoo Finance (2024). Small caps, mid caps, and large caps are represented by the S&P 600, S&P 400, and S&P 500 respectively.
Mid caps delivered the strongest performance since 1989, generating 86% more than large caps.
This superior historical track record is likely the result of the unique position mid-cap companies find themselves in. Mid-cap firms have generally successfully navigated early stage growth and are typically well-funded relative to small caps. And yet they are more dynamic and nimble than large-cap companies, allowing them to respond quicker to the market cycle.
Small caps also outperformed over this timeframe. They earned 23% more than large caps.
Higher Volatility
However, higher historical returns of small- and mid-cap stocks came with increased risk. They both endured greater volatility than large caps.
Small Caps | Mid Caps | Large Caps | |
---|---|---|---|
Total Volatility | 18.9% | 17.4% | 14.8% |
Source: Yahoo Finance (2024). Small caps, mid caps, and large caps are represented by the S&P 600, S&P 400, and S&P 500 respectively.
Small-cap companies are typically earlier in their life cycle and tend to have thinner financial cushions to withstand periods of loss relative to large caps. As a result, they are usually the most volatile group followed by mid caps. Large-cap companies, as more mature and established players, exhibit the most stability in their stock prices.
Investing in small caps and mid caps requires a higher risk tolerance to withstand their price swings. For investors with longer time horizons who are capable of enduring higher risk, current market pricing strengthens the case for stocks of smaller companies.
Attractive Valuations
Large-cap stocks have historically high valuations, with their forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) trading above their 10-year average, according to analysis conducted by FactSet.
Conversely, the forward P/E ratios of small- and mid-cap stocks seem to be presenting a compelling entry point.
Small Caps/Large Caps | Mid Caps/Large Caps | |
---|---|---|
Relative Forward P/E Ratios | 0.71 | 0.75 |
Discount | 29% | 25% |
Source: Yardeni Research (2024). Small caps, mid caps, and large caps are represented by the S&P 600, S&P 400, and S&P 500 respectively.
Looking at both groups’ relative forward P/E ratios (small-cap P/E ratio divided by large-cap P/E ratio, and mid-cap P/E ratio divided by large-cap P/E ratio), small and mid caps are trading at their steepest discounts versus large caps since the early 2000s.
Discovering Small- and Mid-Cap Stocks
Growth-oriented investors looking to add equity exposure could consider incorporating small and mid caps into their portfolios.
With superior historical returns and relatively attractive valuations, small- and mid-cap stocks present a compelling opportunity for investors capable of tolerating greater volatility.
Explore more insights from New York Life Investments
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