Mapped: Europe’s Projected Population Crash by 2100

Visualizing Europe’s Projected Population Crash by 2100

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This map shows Europe’s projected population change for every European country between now and the year 2100.

Only sovereign countries are included on this map. Ukraine figures include Crimea.

Data is sourced from the UN World Population Prospects 2024, using their medium variant estimates.

Eastern and Southern Europeans are Moving West and North

Due to declining fertility rates, every European country will see deaths outnumber births by 2100.

However, Eastern and Southern Europe will see the largest declines relative to their current population.

This group is led by Ukraine; the UN projects it will lose 61% of its population in the next 75 years.

Aside from falling births, there is also a pattern of migration out of the entire region.

This migration—usually west, or out of Europe altogether—is not new. Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, Europeans have been leaving former Soviet-era countries.

A lack of jobs and opportunities to increase income and wealth make many of them economic migrants.

Meanwhile, some Western European countries (UK, France) may see single-digit population growth, due to immigration.

Is This a Problem For Europe?

These figures come at a time within the larger context of immigrants in Europe.

In the last decade Europe has seen an upsurge in anti-immigrant sentiment. However, economically, these immigrants could be a key to Europe’s future.

According to this Guardian investigation, immigrants are currently the stopgap between Europe’s gradual population fall and a rapid decline. A quick crash leads to shrinking workforces, which place higher burdens on social security nets, in turn leading to higher taxes.

The tax-to-GDP ratios for several European countries have already climbed in the last two decades—and top the rest of the world.

Then, falling consumer demand could lead to fewer jobs and higher unemployment. This could make higher tax burdens untenable, affecting social cohesion.

In the absence of significant technological changes, the continent’s reputation for a high standard of living could deteriorate rapidly.

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Want to see this same map in pure numbers? Check out: Europe’s Population in 2100 to see how many people Ukraine will lose.