Mapped: America’s $2 Trillion Economic Drop
It only took a handful of months for the U.S. economy to reel from COVID-19’s effects.
As unemployment rates hit all-time highs and businesses scrambled to stay afloat, new data shows that current dollar GDP plummeted from nearly $21.6 trillion down to $19.5 trillion between Q1’2020 and Q2’2020 (seasonally adjusted at annual rates).
While all states experienced a decline, the effects were not distributed equally across the nation. This visualization takes a look at the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, uncovering the biggest declines across states, and which industries were most affected by COVID-19 related closures and uncertainty.
Change in GDP by State and Industry
Between March-June 2020, stay-at-home orders resulted in disruptions to consumer activity, health, and the broader economy, causing U.S. GDP to fall by 31.4% from numbers posted in Q1.
The U.S. economy is the sum of its parts, with each state contributing to the total output—making the COVID-19 decline even more evident when state-by-state change in GDP is taken into consideration.
|State||Real GDP Change||Biggest Industry Decline||Industry Change
|Alabama||-29.6||Durable Goods Manufacturing||-5.02|
|Alaska||-33.8||Transport and Warehousing||-9.43|
|Arizona||-25.3||Accommodation and Food Services||-4.2|
|Arkansas||-27.9||Health Care and Social Assistance||-4.57|
|California||-31.5||Accommodation and Food Services||-4.43|
|Colorado||-28.1||Accommodation and Food Services||-3.85|
|Connecticut||-31.1||Health Care and Social Assistance||-4.61|
|Delaware||-21.9||Health Care and Social Assistance||-4.19|
|Florida||-30.1||Accommodation and Food Services||-5.3|
|Georgia||-27.7||Accommodation and Food Services||-3.43|
|Hawaii||-42.2||Accommodation and Food Services||-18.85|
|Idaho||-32.4||Health Care and Social Assistance||-4.49|
|Illinois||-29.7||Accommodation and Food Services||-4.11|
|Indiana||-33.0||Durable Goods Manufacturing||-6.74|
|Iowa||-28.2||Durable Goods Manufacturing||-4.35|
|Kansas||-30.3||Durable Goods Manufacturing||-4.42|
|Kentucky||-34.5||Durable Goods Manufacturing||-5.41|
|Louisiana||-31.4||Accommodation and Food Services||-4.72|
|Maine||-34.4||Accommodation and Food Services||-7.09|
|Maryland||-27.7||Health Care and Social Assistance||-4.18|
|Massachusetts||-31.6||Health Care and Social Assistance||-4.73|
|Michigan||-37.6||Durable Goods Manufacturing||-7.57|
|Minnesota||-31.3||Health Care and Social Assistance||-4.55|
|Mississippi||-32.9||Health Care and Social Assistance||-4.56|
|Missouri||-32.1||Health Care and Social Assistance||-4.29|
|Montana||-30.8||Health Care and Social Assistance||-5.67|
|Nebraska||-31.0||Transport and Warehousing||-6.13|
|Nevada||-42.2||Accommodation and Food Services||-15.62|
|New Hampshire||-36.9||Accommodation and Food Services||-6.7|
|New Jersey||-35.6||Health Care and Social Assistance||-5.33|
|New Mexico||-28.3||Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction||-4.4|
|New York||-36.3||Accommodation and Food Services||-5.97|
|North Carolina||-30.5||Accommodation and Food Services||-4.67|
|North Dakota||-27.6||Transport and Warehousing||-4.94|
|Ohio||-33.0||Durable Goods Manufacturing||-4.92|
|Oklahoma||-31.1||Transport and Warehousing||-6.22|
|Oregon||-31.9||Accommodation and Food Services||-5.81|
|Pennsylvania||-34.0||Health Care and Social Assistance||-5.07|
|Rhode Island||-32.4||Health Care and Social Assistance||-5.73|
|South Carolina||-32.6||Accommodation and Food Services||-6.16|
|South Dakota||-28.8||Health Care and Social Assistance||-5.44|
|Tennessee||-40.4||Health Care and Social Assistance||-6.25|
|Texas||-29.0||Health Care and Social Assistance||-3.13|
|Utah||-22.4||Transport and Warehousing||-3.12|
|Vermont||-38.2||Accommodation and Food Services||-8.52|
|Virginia||-27.0||Health Care and Social Assistance||-3.59|
|Washington||-25.5||Accommodation and Food Services||-4.39|
|West Virginia||-29.6||Health Care and Social Assistance||-5.48|
|Wisconsin||-32.6||Durable Goods Manufacturing||-5.17|
|Wyoming||-32.5||Transport and Warehousing||-7.38|
|🇺🇸 U.S.||-31.4||Accommodation and Food Services||-4.38|
Note: Industry changes are reported in percentage points (p.p.) of total current dollar GDP between Q1 and Q2.
A total of 18 states took the biggest hit within the Accommodation & Food Services sector, which was also the industry that suffered the most nationally, dropping by 4.38%.
Highly dependent on tourism, Hawaii bore the brunt of decline in this industry with a 18.85% drop. According to The Economic Research Organization at the University of Hawaii (UHERO), a second wave of infections and expired financial assistance were behind this contraction.
Next, the Health Care & Social Assistance sector was most impacted in 17 states between the two quarters, falling the most in Tennessee (-6.25%).
The most resilient industry amid the pandemic was Financial Services. In the state of Delaware, home to major banks such as JPMorgan Chase and Capital One, the sector actually grew by 4.47%. However, Delaware’s GDP ultimately still fell due to contractions in other sectors.
Each Industry’s Worst Performing State
Looking at it another way, the worst-performing state by industry also becomes clear when the change in percentage points (p.p.) Q1’–Q2’2020 GDP contributions are measured. Of the 21 industries profiled, Nevada shows up in the lower end of the spectrum four times.
|Industry||Worst-performing state||Change (p.p.)|
|Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting||Nebraska||-4.99%|
|Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction||Wyoming||-5.76%|
|Durable goods manufacturing||Michigan||-7.57%|
|Nondurable goods manufacturing||Indiana||-2.65%|
|Wholesale trade||New Jersey||-3.35%|
|Transportation and warehousing||Alaska||-9.43%|
|Finance and insurance||South Dakota||-1.53%|
|Real estate and rental and leasing||Florida||-2.00%|
|Professional, scientific, and technical services||District of Columbia||-4.46%|
|Management of companies and enterprises||Nevada||-0.38%|
|Administrative/ support /waste management / remediation||Nevada||-2.48%|
|Educational services||Rhode Island||-1.47%|
|Health care and social assistance||Tennessee||-6.25%|
|Arts, entertainment, and recreation||Nevada||-4.44%|
|Accommodation and food services||Hawaii||-18.85%|
|Other services (ex. govt)||District of Columbia||-2.40%|
|Government and government enterprises||Alaska||-4.19%|
With many U.S. business leaders expecting a second contraction to occur in the economy, will future figures reflect further declines, or will states manage to bounce back?
How the Top Cryptocurrencies Performed in 2021
Cryptocurrencies had a breakout year in 2021, providing plenty of volatility and strong returns across crypto’s various sectors.
The Returns of Top Cryptocurrencies in 2021
2021 saw the crypto markets boom and mature, with different sectors flourishing and largely outperforming the market leader, bitcoin.
While bitcoin only managed to return 59.8% last year, the crypto sector’s total market cap grew by 187.5%, with many of the top coins offering four and even five-digit percentage returns.
2021 Crypto Market Roundup
Last year wasn’t just a breakout year for crypto in terms of returns, but also the growing infrastructure’s maturity and resulting decorrelation of individual crypto industries and coins.
Crypto’s infrastructure has developed significantly, and there are now many more onramps for people to buy altcoins that don’t require purchasing and using bitcoin in the process. As a result, many cryptocurrency prices were more dictated by the value and functionality of their protocol and applications rather than their correlation to bitcoin.
|Ethereum||Smart Contract Platform||399.2%|
|Binance Coin||Exchange Token||1,268.9%|
|Solana||Smart Contract Platform||11,177.8%|
|Cardano||Smart Contract Platform||621.3%|
|Terra||Smart Contract Platform||12,967.3%|
|Avalanche||Smart Contract Platform||3,334.8%|
|Polkadot||Smart Contract Platform||187.9%|
Sources: TradingView, Binance, Uniswap, FTX, Bittrex
Bitcoin wasn’t the only cryptocurrency that didn’t manage to reach triple-digit returns in 2021. Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash also provided meagre double-digit percentage returns, as payment-focused cryptocurrencies were largely ignored for projects with smart contract capabilities.
Other older projects like Stellar Lumens (109%) and XRP (278%) provided triple-digit returns, with Cardano (621%) being the best performer of the old guard despite not managing to ship its smart contract functionality last year.
The Rise of the Ethereum Competitors
Ethereum greatly outpaced bitcoin in 2021, returning 399.2% as the popularity boom of NFTs and creation of DeFi 2.0 protocols like Olympus (OHM) expanded possible use-cases.
But with the rise of network activity, a 50% increase in transfers in 2021, Ethereum gas fees surged. From minimums of $20 for a single transaction, to NFT mint prices starting around $40 and going into the hundreds on congested network days, crypto’s retail crowd migrated to other smart contract platforms with lower fees.
Alternative budding smart contract platforms like Solana (11,178%), Avalanche (3,335%), and Fantom (13,207%) all had 4-5 digit percentage returns, as these protocols built out their own decentralized finance ecosystems and NFT markets.
With Ethereum set to merge onto the beacon chain this year, which uses proof of stake instead of proof of work, we’ll see if 2022 brings lower gas fees and retail’s return to Ethereum if the merge is successful.
Dog Coins Meme their Way to the Top
While many new cryptocurrencies with strong functionality and unique use-cases were rewarded with strong returns, it was memes that powered the greatest returns in cryptocurrencies this past year.
Dogecoin’s surge after Elon Musk’s “adoption” saw many other dog coins follow, with SHIB benefitting the most and returning an astounding 19.85 million percent.
But ever since Dogecoin’s run from $0.07 to a high of $0.74 in Q2 of last year, the original meme coin’s price has slowly bled -77% down to $0.17 at the time of writing. After the roller coaster ride of last year, 2022 started with a positive catalyst for Dogecoin holders as Elon Musk announced DOGE can be used to purchase Tesla merchandise.
Gamifying the Crypto Industry
The intersection between crypto, games, and the metaverse became more than just a pipe dream in 2021. Axie Infinity was the first crypto native game to successfully establish a play to earn structure that combines its native token (AXS) and in-game NFTs, becoming a sensation and source of income for many in the Philippines.
Other crypto gaming projects like Defi Kingdoms are putting recognizable game interfaces on decentralized finance applications, with the decentralized exchange becoming the town’s “marketplace” and yield farms being the “gardens” where yield is harvested. This fantasy aesthetic is more than just a new coat of paint, as the project with $1.04B of total value locked is developing an underlying play-to-earn game.
Along with gamification, 2021 saw crypto native and non-crypto developers put a big emphasis on the digital worlds or metaverses users will inhabit. Facebook’s name change to Meta resulted in the two prominent metaverse projects The Sandbox (SAND) and Decentraland (MANA) surge another few hundred percent to finish off the year at 16,261% and 4,104% returns respectively.
With so many eyes on the crypto sector after the 2021’s breakout year, we’ll see how developing U.S. regulation and changing macro conditions affect cryptocurrencies in 2022.
The Periodic Table of Commodity Returns (2012-2021)
Energy fuels led the way as commodity prices surged in 2021, with only precious metals providing negative returns.
The Periodic Table of Commodity Returns (2022 Edition)
For investors, 2021 was a year in which nearly every asset class finished in the green, with commodities providing some of the best returns.
The S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) was the third best-performing asset class in 2021, returning 37.1% and beating out real estate and all major equity indices.
This graphic from U.S. Global Investors tracks individual commodity returns over the past decade, ranking them based on their individual performance each year.
Commodity Prices Surge in 2021
After a strong performance from commodities (metals especially) in the year prior, 2021 was all about energy commodities.
The top three performers for 2021 were energy fuels, with coal providing the single best annual return of any commodity over the past 10 years at 160.6%. According to U.S. Global Investors, coal was also the least volatile commodity of 2021, meaning investors had a smooth ride as the fossil fuel surged in price.
Source: U.S. Global Investors
The only commodities in the red this year were precious metals, which failed to stay positive despite rising inflation across goods and asset prices. Gold and silver had returns of -3.6% and -11.7% respectively, with platinum returning -9.6% and palladium, the worst performing commodity of 2021, at -22.2%.
Aside from the precious metals, every other commodity managed double-digit positive returns, with four commodities (crude oil, coal, aluminum, and wheat) having their best single-year performances of the past decade.
Energy Commodities Outperform as the World Reopens
The partial resumption of travel and the reopening of businesses in 2021 were both powerful catalysts that fueled the price rise of energy commodities.
After crude oil’s dip into negative prices in April 2020, black gold had a strong comeback in 2021 as it returned 55.01% while being the most volatile commodity of the year.
Natural gas prices also rose significantly (46.91%), with the UK and Europe’s natural gas prices rising even more as supply constraints came up against the winter demand surge.
Despite being the second worst performer of 2020 with the clean energy transition on the horizon, coal was 2021’s best commodity.
High electricity demand saw coal return in style, especially in China which accounts for one-third of global coal consumption.
Base Metals Beat out Precious Metals
2021 was a tale of two metals, as precious metals and base metals had opposing returns.
Copper, nickel, zinc, aluminum, and lead, all essential for the clean energy transition, kept up last year’s positive returns as the EV batteries and renewable energy technologies caught investors’ attention.
Demand for these energy metals looks set to continue in 2022, with Tesla having already signed a $1.5 billion deal for 75,000 tonnes of nickel with Talon Metals.
On the other end of the spectrum, precious metals simply sunk like a rock last year.
Investors turned to equities, real estate, and even cryptocurrencies to preserve and grow their investments, rather than the traditionally favorable gold (-3.64%) and silver (-11.72%). Platinum and palladium also lagged behind other commodities, only returning -9.64% and -22.21% respectively.
Grains Bring Steady Gains
In a year of over and underperformers, grains kept up their steady track record and notched their fifth year in a row of positive returns.
Both corn and wheat provided double-digit returns, with corn reaching eight-year highs and wheat reaching prices not seen in over nine years. Overall, these two grains followed 2021’s trend of increasing food prices, as the UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s food price index reached a 10-year high, rising by 17.8% over the course of the year.
As inflation across commodities, assets, and consumer goods surged in 2021, investors will now be keeping a sharp eye for a pullback in 2022. We’ll have to wait and see whether or not the Fed’s plans to increase rates and taper asset purchases will manage to provide price stability in commodities.
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