Mapped: America’s $2 Trillion Economic Drop, By State and Industry
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Mapped: America’s $2 Trillion Economic Drop, by State and Sector

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Change in GDP $2T Economic Drop

Mapped: America’s $2 Trillion Economic Drop

It only took a handful of months for the U.S. economy to reel from COVID-19’s effects.

As unemployment rates hit all-time highs and businesses scrambled to stay afloat, new data shows that current dollar GDP plummeted from nearly $21.6 trillion down to $19.5 trillion between Q1’2020 and Q2’2020 (seasonally adjusted at annual rates).

While all states experienced a decline, the effects were not distributed equally across the nation. This visualization takes a look at the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, uncovering the biggest declines across states, and which industries were most affected by COVID-19 related closures and uncertainty.

Change in GDP by State and Industry

Between March-June 2020, stay-at-home orders resulted in disruptions to consumer activity, health, and the broader economy, causing U.S. GDP to fall by 31.4% from numbers posted in Q1.

The U.S. economy is the sum of its parts, with each state contributing to the total output—making the COVID-19 decline even more evident when state-by-state change in GDP is taken into consideration.

StateReal GDP ChangeBiggest Industry DeclineIndustry Change
(p.p.)
Alabama-29.6Durable Goods Manufacturing-5.02
Alaska-33.8Transport and Warehousing-9.43
Arizona-25.3Accommodation and Food Services-4.2
Arkansas-27.9Health Care and Social Assistance-4.57
California-31.5Accommodation and Food Services-4.43
Colorado-28.1Accommodation and Food Services-3.85
Connecticut-31.1Health Care and Social Assistance-4.61
Delaware-21.9Health Care and Social Assistance-4.19
Florida-30.1Accommodation and Food Services-5.3
Georgia-27.7Accommodation and Food Services-3.43
Hawaii-42.2Accommodation and Food Services-18.85
Idaho-32.4Health Care and Social Assistance-4.49
Illinois-29.7Accommodation and Food Services-4.11
Indiana-33.0Durable Goods Manufacturing-6.74
Iowa-28.2Durable Goods Manufacturing-4.35
Kansas-30.3Durable Goods Manufacturing-4.42
Kentucky-34.5Durable Goods Manufacturing-5.41
Louisiana-31.4Accommodation and Food Services-4.72
Maine-34.4Accommodation and Food Services-7.09
Maryland-27.7Health Care and Social Assistance-4.18
Massachusetts-31.6Health Care and Social Assistance-4.73
Michigan-37.6Durable Goods Manufacturing-7.57
Minnesota-31.3Health Care and Social Assistance-4.55
Mississippi-32.9Health Care and Social Assistance-4.56
Missouri-32.1Health Care and Social Assistance-4.29
Montana-30.8Health Care and Social Assistance-5.67
Nebraska-31.0Transport and Warehousing-6.13
Nevada-42.2Accommodation and Food Services-15.62
New Hampshire-36.9Accommodation and Food Services-6.7
New Jersey-35.6Health Care and Social Assistance-5.33
New Mexico-28.3Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction-4.4
New York-36.3Accommodation and Food Services-5.97
North Carolina-30.5Accommodation and Food Services-4.67
North Dakota-27.6Transport and Warehousing-4.94
Ohio-33.0Durable Goods Manufacturing-4.92
Oklahoma-31.1Transport and Warehousing-6.22
Oregon-31.9Accommodation and Food Services-5.81
Pennsylvania-34.0Health Care and Social Assistance-5.07
Rhode Island-32.4Health Care and Social Assistance-5.73
South Carolina-32.6Accommodation and Food Services-6.16
South Dakota-28.8Health Care and Social Assistance-5.44
Tennessee-40.4Health Care and Social Assistance-6.25
Texas-29.0Health Care and Social Assistance-3.13
Utah-22.4Transport and Warehousing-3.12
Vermont-38.2Accommodation and Food Services-8.52
Virginia-27.0Health Care and Social Assistance-3.59
Washington-25.5Accommodation and Food Services-4.39
West Virginia-29.6Health Care and Social Assistance-5.48
Wisconsin-32.6Durable Goods Manufacturing-5.17
Wyoming-32.5Transport and Warehousing-7.38
🇺🇸 U.S.-31.4Accommodation and Food Services-4.38

Note: Industry changes are reported in percentage points (p.p.) of total current dollar GDP between Q1 and Q2.

A total of 18 states took the biggest hit within the Accommodation & Food Services sector, which was also the industry that suffered the most nationally, dropping by 4.38%.

Highly dependent on tourism, Hawaii bore the brunt of decline in this industry with a 18.85% drop. According to The Economic Research Organization at the University of Hawaii (UHERO), a second wave of infections and expired financial assistance were behind this contraction.

Next, the Health Care & Social Assistance sector was most impacted in 17 states between the two quarters, falling the most in Tennessee (-6.25%).

The most resilient industry amid the pandemic was Financial Services. In the state of Delaware, home to major banks such as JPMorgan Chase and Capital One, the sector actually grew by 4.47%. However, Delaware’s GDP ultimately still fell due to contractions in other sectors.

Each Industry’s Worst Performing State

Looking at it another way, the worst-performing state by industry also becomes clear when the change in percentage points (p.p.) Q1’–Q2’2020 GDP contributions are measured. Of the 21 industries profiled, Nevada shows up in the lower end of the spectrum four times.

IndustryWorst-performing stateChange (p.p.)
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and huntingNebraska-4.99%
Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extractionWyoming-5.76%
UtilitiesNebraska-0.33%
ConstructionNew York-2.02%
Durable goods manufacturingMichigan-7.57%
Nondurable goods manufacturingIndiana-2.65%
Wholesale tradeNew Jersey-3.35%
Retail tradeNevada-2.88%
Transportation and warehousingAlaska-9.43%
InformationCalifornia-0.88%
Finance and insuranceSouth Dakota-1.53%
Real estate and rental and leasingFlorida-2.00%
Professional, scientific, and technical servicesDistrict of Columbia-4.46%
Management of companies and enterprisesNevada-0.38%
Administrative/ support /waste management / remediationNevada-2.48%
Educational servicesRhode Island-1.47%
Health care and social assistanceTennessee-6.25%
Arts, entertainment, and recreationNevada-4.44%
Accommodation and food servicesHawaii-18.85%
Other services (ex. govt)District of Columbia-2.40%
Government and government enterprisesAlaska-4.19%

With many U.S. business leaders expecting a second contraction to occur in the economy, will future figures reflect further declines, or will states manage to bounce back?

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The Top Google Searches Related to Investing in 2022

What was on investors’ minds in 2022? Discover the top Google searches and how the dominant trends played out in portfolios.

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Trend lines showing when the top Google searches related to investing reached peak popularity over the course of 2022.
The following content is sponsored by New York Life Investments

The Top Google Searches Related to Investing in 2022

It was a turbulent year for the markets in 2022, with geopolitical conflict, rising prices, and the labor market playing key roles. Which stories captured investors’ attention the most? 

This infographic from New York Life Investments outlines the top Google searches related to investing in 2022, and offers a closer look at some of the trends.

Top Google Searches: Year in Review

We picked some of the top economic and investing stories that saw peak search interest in the U.S. each month, according to Google Trends.

Month of Peak InterestSearch Term
JanuaryGreat Resignation
FebruaryRussian Stock Market
MarchOil Price
April Housing Bubble
MayValue Investing
JuneBitcoin
JulyRecession
AugustInflation
SeptemberUS Dollar
OctoberOPEC
NovemberLayoffs
DecemberInterest Rate Forecast

Data based on exact searches in the U.S. from December 26, 2021 to December 18, 2022.

Let’s look at each quarter in more detail, to see how these top Google searches were related to activity in the economy and investors’ portfolios.

Q1 2022

The start of the year was marked by U.S. workers quitting their jobs in record numbers, and the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war. For instance, the price of crude oil skyrocketed after the war caused supply uncertainties. Early March’s peak of $125 per barrel was a 13-year high.

DateClosing Price of WTI Crude Oil
(USD/Barrel)
January 2, 2022$76
March 3, 2022$125
December 29, 2022$80

While crude oil lost nearly all its gains by year-end, the energy sector in general performed well. In fact, the S&P 500 Energy Index gained 57% over the year compared to the S&P 500’s 19% loss.

Q2 2022

The second quarter of 2022 saw abnormal house price growth, renewed interest in value investing, and a bitcoin crash. In particular, value investing performed much better than growth investing over the course of the year.

IndexPrice Return in 2022
S&P 500 Value Index-7.4%
S&P 500 Growth Index-30.1%

Value stocks have typically outperformed during periods of rising rates, and 2022 was no exception.

Q3 2022

The third quarter was defined by worries about a recession and inflation, along with interest in the rising U.S. dollar. In fact, the U.S. dollar gained against nearly every major currency.

Currency USD Appreciation Against Currency
(Dec 31 2020-Sep 30 2022)
Japanese Yen40.1%
Chinese Yuan9.2%
Euro25.1%
Canadian Dollar7.2%
British Pound22.0%
Australian Dollar18.1%

Higher interest rates made the U.S. dollar more attractive to investors, since it meant they would get a higher return on their fixed income investments.

Q4 2022

The end of the year was dominated by OPEC cutting oil production, high layoffs in the tech sector, and curiosity about the future of interest rates. The Federal Reserve’s December 2022 economic projections offer clues about the trajectory of the policy rate.

 202320242025Longer Run
Minimum Projection4.9%3.1%2.4%2.3%
Median Projection5.1%4.1%3.1%2.5%
Maximum Projection5.6%5.6%5.6%3.3%

The Federal Reserve expects interest rates to peak in 2023, with rates to remain elevated above pre-pandemic levels for the foreseeable future.

The Top Google Searches to Come

After a year of volatility across asset classes, economic uncertainty remains. Which themes will become investors’ top Google searches in 2023?

Find out how New York Life Investments can help you make sense of market trends.

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