Globalisation is a rising tide that lifts all boats.

In an increasingly connected world, countries are engaging with global markets more than ever before. As a result, global wealth is shifting towards emerging markets. This megatrend—a global trend with sustained impacts—is profoundly influencing everyday life, society, and business.

Shifting Economic Power

Today’s infographic from iShares by BlackRock explains how emerging markets are classified, along with which countries are growing the fastest—and how investors can follow the money.

What Is An Emerging Market?

Every economy goes through five distinct stages of growth:

1. Traditional Society: Based on primary industries, such as subsistence farming.
2. The Pre-Conditions of Take-off: Spread of technology creates a more productive agricultural economy.
3. Take-off: Industrialisation begins, and technological breakthroughs occur.
4. Drive to Maturity: More complex manufacturing, and large-scale infrastructure investment takes place.
5. Age of Mass Consumption: Urban society and a tertiary industry dominate, as disposable income grows.

Source

Emerging markets fall into the transitory stages between ‘Take-off’ and ‘Drive to maturity’ as their economies modernise. Today, such countries offer lots of promise, but also come with a range of challenges:

• Pro: Greater return potential, growing middle class, increasing consumption
• Risk: Political instability, lack of infrastructure, lack of market access

Between 2000–2018, emerging markets’ share of global wealth has more than doubled from 10% to 24%. China is a major player in this transformation.

China’s Economic Might

China’s impressive trajectory from agricultural economy to global superpower cannot be ignored. The nation is on track to overtake the U.S. in terms of gross domestic product (GDP, nominal) by the year 2030.

Year	🇨🇳 China GDP	🇺🇸 U.S. GDP
2000	$2.2T	$12.6T
2010	$6.1T	$15T
2018	$10.8T	$17.8T
2020E	$16T	$20.2T
2030E	$26.5T	$23.5T
2040E	$36.6T	$28.3T
2050E	$50T	$34.1T

China’s enormous growth has a ripple effect on its GDP composition. A more affluent middle class is buying higher-priced discretionary goods—such as cars and electronics—boosting the country’s domestic consumption.

Investors must keep an eye out for other emerging markets that are emulating China’s example.

One Piece Of the Puzzle

China is just one case study—several other economies are also making strides on the world stage. Each country brings unique advantages, but also barriers to overcome.

Country	Real GDP Growth (2019E)	Strengths	Weaknesses
🇮🇳 India	7.4%	✔ Rapidly growing economy ✔ Vast working-age population	✘ Red tape ✘ Lack of infrastructure
🇨🇳 China	6.2%	✔ Good infrastructure ✔ High R&D spending	✘ Ageing population ✘ High debt
🇮🇩 Indonesia	5.1%	✔ Cheap labour ✔ Diversifying economy	✘Wide income gap ✘ Lack of infrastructure
🇲🇽 Mexico	2.5%	✔ Integrated with global economy ✔ Cheap and qualified labour	✘ Political unrest ✘ Reliant on U.S. ties
🇧🇷 Brazil	2.4%	✔ Diversifying economy ✔ Strategic location	✘ High production costs ✘ Inflation
🇳🇬 Nigeria	2.3%	✔ High FDI ✔ Diversifying economy	✘ Political unrest ✘ Lack of infrastructure
🇷🇺 Russia	1.8%	✔ Natural resources ✔ Educated workforce	✘ Political unrest ✘ Lack of FDI
🇹🇷 Turkey	0.4%	✔ Cheap labour ✔ Strategic location	✘ Political unrest ✘ Red tape

Source: Global Finance Magazine

With these major emerging markets in mind, how can investors tap into the global wealth shift?

Where Are the Opportunities?

There are several avenues for an investor to play into this megatrend: structural solutions, consumer goods, and international investment.

Structural solutions

Emerging markets are increasingly gaining access to technology. Growth in connectivity is closely linked with improved productivity, and many countries are ripe for a surge in online users.

However, much can still be done to speed up technological adoption, such as boosting 3G/4G network volume and coverage, and lowering the cost of data and smartphones to be more economical.

By helping solve some of these structural constraints through technological innovation, investors can tap into the economic growth of emerging markets.

Consumer goods

As disposable income increases, a sizeable middle class will seek out products that elevate the quality of life. In India, domestic consumption is estimated to hit $6 trillion by 2023—four times its 2018 level.

The region’s spending will likely be propelled by higher-priced goods, as well as a wider variety of choices across food, transport, and fitness categories.

Global brands that plan to expand into emerging markets, or companies with a proven track record in these areas, are potential winners for investment.

International investment

Last but not least, investors can identify local winners in emerging wealth markets, through active or passive investing.

An active investment strategy would be to directly buy into individual company stocks, listed on a country’s stock exchange. Meanwhile, a passive investing strategy would be to seek out exchange-traded funds (ETFs) covering specific markets, and/or sectors within emerging markets. Many of these are also listed on major exchanges.

Diversifying either or both strategies across two or more countries can help mitigate risk. Investors can also choose index funds that broadly encompass all emerging markets.

As countries climb the economic ladder, the emerging wealth shift continues to gain momentum. By staying attuned to these macro changes, investors may unlock long-term growth from emerging markets.



Get your mind blown on a daily basis:

Thank you!

Given email address is already subscribed, thank you!

Please provide a valid email address.

Please complete the CAPTCHA.

Oops. Something went wrong. Please try again later.

How the Global Inequality Gap Has Changed In 200 Years

What makes a person healthy, wealthy, and wise? The UN’s Human Development Index (HDI) measures this by one’s life expectancy, average income, and years of education.

However, the value of each metric varies greatly depending on where you live. Today’s data visualization from Max Roser at Our World in Data summarizes five basic dimensions of development across countries—and how our average standards of living have evolved since 1800.

Health: Mortality Rates and Life Expectancy

Child mortality rates and life expectancy at birth are telltale signs of a country’s overall standard of living, as they indicate a population’s ability to access healthcare services.

Iceland stood at the top of these ranks in 2017, with only a 0.21% mortality rate for children under five years old. On the other end of the spectrum, Somalia had the highest child mortality rate of 12.7%—over three times the current global average.

While there’s a stark contrast between the best and worst performing countries, it’s clear that even Somalia has made significant strides since 1800. At that time, the global average child mortality rate was a whopping 43%.

Lower child mortality is also tied to higher life expectancy. In 1800, the average life expectancy was that of today’s millennial—only 29 years old:

Today, the global average has shot up to 72.2 years, with areas like Japan exceeding this benchmark by more than a decade.

Education: Mean and Expected Years of Schooling

Education levels are measured in two distinct ways:

• Mean years: the average number of years a person aged 25+ receives in their lifetime
• Expected years: the total years a 2-year old child is likely to spend in school

In the 1800s, the mean and expected years of education were both less than a year—only 78 days to be precise. Low attendance rates occurred because children were expected to work during harvests, or contracted long-term illnesses that kept them at home.

Since then, education levels have drastically improved:

Research shows that investing in education can greatly narrow the inequality gap. Just one additional year of school can:

• Raise a person’s income by up to 10%
• Raise average annual GDP growth by 0.37%
• Reduce the probability of motherhood by 7.3%
• Reduce the likelihood of child marriage by >5 percentage points

Source

Education has a strong correlation with individual wealth, which cascades into national wealth. Not surprisingly, average income has ballooned significantly in two centuries as well.

Wealth: Average GDP Per Capita

Global inequality levels are the most stark when it comes to GDP per capita. While the U.S. stands at $54,225 per person in 2017, resource-rich Qatar brings in more than double this amount—an immense $116,936 per person.

The global average GDP per capita is $15,469, but inequality heavily skews the bottom end of these values. In the Central African Republic, GDP per capita is only $661 today—similar to the average income two hundred years ago.

A Virtuous Cycle

These measures of development clearly feed into one another. Rising life expectancies are an indication of a society’s growing access to healthcare options. Compounded with more years of education, especially for women, this has had a ripple effect on declining fertility rates, contributing to higher per capita incomes.

People largely agree on what goes into human well-being: life, health, sustenance, prosperity, peace, freedom, safety, knowledge, leisure, happiness… If they have improved over time, that, I submit, is progress.

—Steven Pinker

As technology accelerates the pace of change across these indicators, will the global inequality gap narrow more, or expand even wider?



Get your mind blown on a daily basis:

Thank you!

Given email address is already subscribed, thank you!

Please provide a valid email address.

Please complete the CAPTCHA.

Oops. Something went wrong. Please try again later.