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Navigating Uncertainty: Leadership Accountability in Times of Crisis

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In the face of adversity, leaders may struggle to manage their teams effectively.

Before the COVID-19 outbreak, over half of all professionals globally worked remotely at least 2.5 days a week. This has since increased dramatically, with 88% of organizations now insisting their employees work from home and implement social distancing.

Leaders must adapt to a more flexible workplace and create a culture of accountability so that their organization can successfully weather the COVID-19 storm.

Leadership Accountability in Uncertain Times

Today’s infographic, from bestselling author Vince Molinaro, reveals the five behaviors that leaders can adopt in order to provide thoughtful navigation through uncertainty.

leadership accountability in times of crisis infographic

>> Join Vince Molinaro’s Community of Accountable Leaders

The Impact of Leadership Accountability

As the workforce pivots to remote working arrangements, the benefits of flexible working policies are coming into sharper focus.

Research shows that these policies can lower overhead costs, reduce commuting times and increase employee satisfaction—in addition to attracting top talent. Moreover, the shift to working remotely could boost the U.S. economy by $4.5 trillion annually by 2030.

But achieving these benefits requires accountability from everyone in an organization, and in an increasingly virtual world, that can become difficult to manage.

Challenges Facing Leaders Today

Leaders are already subject to an array of challenges that they must overcome, such as:

  • The pressure to differentiate: Leaders feel an unrelenting pressure to innovate and help their organizations stand out in a sea of ruthless competitors.
  • Executing the strategy: Leaders must align the organization to ensure employees are clear about what needs to get done to execute priorities seamlessly.
  • Leading transformational change: With so many moving parts, constant change across several aspects of a business can be difficult for leaders to manage.
  • Creating enduring value: Customers, boards, and shareholders have high expectations for leaders in exchange for their loyalty.
  • Building future talent: Leaders must build and nurture the next generation of leaders in addition to managing the day-to-day.

These mounting pressures can have a detrimental impact on a business leader’s performance, so it is crucial that they get the support they need now, more than ever.

The Characteristics of Accountable Leaders

Truly accountable leadership is the only way an organization can weather uncertainty in a world that has been upended. Research reveals that among the strongest performing companies, accountable leaders consistently demonstrate five behaviors that set them apart from others.

  1. Hold others accountable for high standards of performance
    Good leaders make mutual expectations clear by consistently reinforcing what is important, and what employees should prioritize in their roles.
  2. Tackle tough issues and make difficult decisions
    Technology is hugely beneficial, but it should never replace the human element. Picking up the phone or having a Skype call is more immediate and personal, especially when it comes to problem solving and making tough decisions.
  3. Communicate the strategy across the organization
    Leaders must ensure that employees have complete clarity in terms of the company’s vision to do their jobs effectively. Creating a set of well-defined goals can help people stay engaged and decrease their stress levels.
  4. Express optimism about the company and its future
    Many employees can feel isolated and disconnected in the virtual world, so leaders must provide support, positive energy, and a sense of hope for the future.
  5. Display clarity about external trends in the business environment
    Finally, it is critical to help employees make sense of the current situation right now. Leaders must provide honest and transparent communication in a way that manages fear, stress, and anxiety. This encourages employees’s determination to help the organization succeed.

Leading The Future

As we embrace the unknown, it is clear that leadership accountability will become more important than ever.

In fact, it has become a crucial element for future-proofing organizations in times of crisis or drastic change. Perhaps more importantly, it is necessary for encouraging teams to emerge more connected and resilient than ever before.

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How Disinflation Could Affect Company Financing

History signals that after a period of slowing inflation—also known as disinflation—debt and equity issuance expands.

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Chart showing U.S. Equity Issuance Deal Value from 1980-2000. Equity Issuance goes up over time, with the 300% increase in 1983 highlighted at the end of the disinflation period.
The following content is sponsored by Citizens Commercial Banking

How Disinflation Could Affect Company Financing

The macroeconomic environment is shifting. Since the second half of 2022, the pace of U.S. inflation has been dropping.

We explore how this disinflation may affect company financing in Part 2 of our Understanding Market Trends series from Citizens.

Disinflation vs. Deflation

The last time inflation climbed above 9% and then dropped was in the early 1980’s.

Time PeriodMarch 1980-July 1983June 2022-April 2023*
Inflation at Start of Cycle14.8%9.1%
Inflation at End of Cycle2.5%4.9%

* The June 2022-April 2023 cycle is ongoing. Source: Federal Reserve. Inflation is based on the Consumer Price Index.

A decrease in the rate of inflation is known as disinflation. It differs from deflation, which is a negative inflation rate like the U.S. experienced at the end of the Global Financial Crisis in 2009.

How might slowing inflation affect the amount of debt and equity available to companies?

Looking to History

There are many factors that influence capital markets, such as technological advances, monetary policy, and regulatory changes.

With this caveat in mind, history signals that both debt and equity issuance expand after a period of disinflation.

Equity Issuance

Companies issued low levels of stock during the ‘80s disinflation period, but issuance later rose nearly 300% in 1983.

YearDeal Value
1980$2.6B
1981$5.0B
1982$3.6B
1983$13.5B
1984$2.5B
1985$12.0B
1986$24.2B
1987$24.9B
1988$16.9B
1989$12.9B
1990$13.4B
1991$45.2B
1992$50.3B
1993$95.3B
1994$63.7B
1995$79.7B
1996$108.7B
1997$106.5B
1998$97.0B
1999$142.8B
2000$156.5B

Source: Bloomberg. U.S. public equity issuance dollar volume that includes both initial and follow-on offerings and excludes convertibles.

Issuance grew quickly in the years that followed. Other factors also influenced issuance, such as the macroeconomic expansion, productivity growth, and the dotcom boom of the ‘90s.

Debt Issuance

Similarly, companies issued low debt during the ‘80s disinflation, but levels began to increase substantially in later years.

YearDeal Value Interest Rate
1980$4.5B11.4%
1981$6.7B13.9%
1982$14.5B13.0%
1983$8.1B11.1%
1984$25.7B12.5%
1985$46.4B10.6%
1986$47.1B7.7%
1987$26.4B8.4%
1988$24.7B8.9%
1989$29.9B8.5%
1990$40.2B8.6%
1991$41.6B7.9%
1992$50.0B7.0%
1993$487.8B5.9%
1994$526.4B7.1%
1995$632.7B6.6%
1996$906.0B6.4%
1997$1.3T6.4%
1998$1.8T5.3%
1999$1.8T5.7%
2000$2.8T6.0%

Source: Dealogic, Federal Reserve. Data reflects U.S. debt issuance dollar volume across several deal types including: Asset Backed Securities, U.S. Agency, Non-U.S. Agency, High Yield, Investment Grade, Government Backed, Mortgage Backed, Medium Term Notes, Covered Bonds, Preferreds, and Supranational. Interest Rate is the 10 Year Treasury Yield.

As interest rates dropped and debt capital markets matured, issuing debt became cheaper and corporations seized this opportunity.

It’s worth noting that debt issuance was also impacted by other factors, like the maturity of the high-yield debt market and growth in non-bank lenders such as hedge funds and pension funds.

Then vs. Now

Could the U.S. see levels of capital financing similar to what happened during the ‘80s disinflation? There are many economic differences between then and now.

Consider how various indicators differed 10 months into each disinflationary period.

January 1981April 2023*
Inflation Rate
Annual
11.8%4.9%
Inflation Expectations
Next 12 Months
9.5%4.5%
Interest Rate
10-Yr Treasury Yield
12.6%3.7%
Unemployment Rate
Seasonally Adjusted
7.5%3.4%
Nominal Wage Growth
Annual, Seasonally Adjusted
9.3%5.0%
After-Tax Corporate Profits
As Share of Gross Value Added
9.1%13.8%

* Data for inflation expectations and interest rate is as of May 2023, data for corporate profits is as of Q4 1980 and Q1 2023. Inflation is a year-over-year inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index. Source: Federal Reserve.

The U.S. economy is in a better position when it comes to factors like inflation, unemployment, and corporate profits. On the other hand, fears of an upcoming recession and turmoil in the banking sector have led to volatility.

What to Consider During Disinflation

Amid uncertainty in financial markets, lenders and investors may be more cautious. Companies will need to be strategic about how they approach capital financing.

  • High-quality, profitable companies could be well positioned for IPOs as investors are placing more focus on cash flow.
  • High-growth companies could face fewer options as lenders become more selective and could consider alternative forms of equity and private debt.
  • Companies with lower credit ratings could find debt more expensive as lenders charge higher rates to account for market volatility.

In uncertain times, it’s critical for businesses to work with the right advisor to find—and take advantage of—financing opportunities.

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