Central Banks
Japan Officially Gets Leapfrogged by the Four Asian Tigers
Japan Officially Gets Leapfrogged by the Four Asian Tigers
Throughout the decades in the 1950s and 1960s, the Japanese economy was envied for its unrelenting growth.
Dubbed the “Post-War Miracle”, this period of time saw Japan become a global center of manufacturing and exports. Japanese brands such as Toyota, Sony, Honda, Mitsubishi, Panasonic, and Canon would become household names worldwide. By the 1960s, Japan catapulted to become the second largest economy in the world.
Today, Japan has the third largest economy in terms of total nominal GDP, and the fourth largest by GDP adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). This doesn’t seem so bad on paper, but Japan also has nearly 130 million people.
What do those amounts look like per capita? It turns out to be not so good.
After over two decades of economic stagnation, the most recent GDP per capita (PPP) numbers for 2014 by the IMF had the Japanese economy in 29th place globally. As you saw in the opening chart, even more recent projections from another source show that all four Asian Tigers have now all officially leapfrogged Japan in terms of GDP per capita (PPP).
The “Four Asian Tigers”, a term used to reference the highly free-market and developed economies of Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan, have continued to grow despite Japan’s struggles. Singapore, a significant Asian banking center, passed Japan in GDP per capita (PPP) back in 1979. Hong Kong would be the next to do so in 1993, and Taiwan would jump ahead during the Financial Crisis. The last of the leapfrogging happened when South Korea passed Japan this year.
This shouldn’t be too surprising, as the struggles of Japan over the last 25 years have been well-documented. However, a point of interest may be the context of how these challenges began.
In the mid-80s, the yen had basically doubled in value against the dollar. For a manufacturing and exporting nation (similar to how China is today), this was less than ideal. While this was happening, the Bank of Japan intervened with five sessions of monetary easing starting in January 1986 to weaken the yen, cutting interest rates from 5.0% to 2.5% in just one year.
During this time, monetary growth was much quicker than anticipated. More-than-sufficient liquidity and ultra low interest rates fueled speculation, which helped lead to inflate a classic asset bubble. In the early 90s, the BOJ hiked rates to counter speculation and curb inflation.
The asset bubble popped, and Japan’s economy would be sent into the “Lost Decade” – a “decade” which has lasted 25 years.
You can see the drastic increase in money supply leading up to the crisis here:
Japan now has the world’s highest debt-to-GDP ratio of 243% as well as the world’s highest debt-to-revenue ratio.
Despite this, they’ve started an even more potentially dangerous experiment known as Abenomics, which is the three-headed beast of unprecedented quantitative easing, monetary stimulus, and reforms.
Original graphics by: Utopia – You’re Standing In It (blog), Trading Economics
Economy
Charted: Public Trust in the Federal Reserve
Public trust in the Federal Reserve chair has hit its lowest point in 20 years. Get the details in this infographic.
The Briefing
- Gallup conducts an annual poll to gauge the U.S. public’s trust in the Federal Reserve
- After rising during the COVID-19 pandemic, public trust has fallen to a 20-year low
Charted: Public Trust in the Federal Reserve
Each year, Gallup conducts a survey of American adults on various economic topics, including the country’s central bank, the Federal Reserve.
More specifically, respondents are asked how much confidence they have in the current Fed chairman to do or recommend the right thing for the U.S. economy. We’ve visualized these results from 2001 to 2023 to see how confidence levels have changed over time.
Methodology and Results
The data used in this infographic is also listed in the table below. Percentages reflect the share of respondents that have either a “great deal” or “fair amount” of confidence.
| Year | Fed chair | % Great deal or Fair amount |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Jerome Powell | 36% |
| 2022 | Jerome Powell | 43% |
| 2021 | Jerome Powell | 55% |
| 2020 | Jerome Powell | 58% |
| 2019 | Jerome Powell | 50% |
| 2018 | Jerome Powell | 45% |
| 2017 | Janet Yellen | 45% |
| 2016 | Janet Yellen | 38% |
| 2015 | Janet Yellen | 42% |
| 2014 | Janet Yellen | 37% |
| 2013 | Ben Bernanke | 42% |
| 2012 | Ben Bernanke | 39% |
| 2011 | Ben Bernanke | 41% |
| 2010 | Ben Bernanke | 44% |
| 2009 | Ben Bernanke | 49% |
| 2008 | Ben Bernanke | 47% |
| 2007 | Ben Bernanke | 50% |
| 2006 | Ben Bernanke | 41% |
| 2005 | Alan Greenspan | 56% |
| 2004 | Alan Greenspan | 61% |
| 2003 | Alan Greenspan | 65% |
| 2002 | Alan Greenspan | 69% |
| 2001 | Alan Greenspan | 74% |
Data for 2023 collected April 3-25, with this statement put to respondents: “Please tell me how much confidence you have [in the Fed chair] to recommend the right thing for the economy.”
We can see that trust in the Federal Reserve has fluctuated significantly in recent years.
For example, under Alan Greenspan, trust was initially high due to the relative stability of the economy. The burst of the dotcom bubble—which some attribute to Greenspan’s easy credit policies—resulted in a sharp decline.
On the flip side, public confidence spiked during the COVID-19 pandemic. This was likely due to Jerome Powell’s decisive actions to provide support to the U.S. economy throughout the crisis.
Measures implemented by the Fed include bringing interest rates to near zero, quantitative easing (buying government bonds with newly-printed money), and emergency lending programs to businesses.
Confidence Now on the Decline
After peaking at 58%, those with a “great deal” or “fair amount” of trust in the Fed chair have tumbled to 36%, the lowest number in 20 years.
This is likely due to Powell’s hard stance on fighting post-pandemic inflation, which has involved raising interest rates at an incredible speed. While these rate hikes may be necessary, they also have many adverse effects:
- Negative impact on the stock market
- Increases the burden for those with variable-rate debts
- Makes mortgages and home buying less affordable
Higher rates have also prompted many U.S. tech companies to shrink their workforces, and have been a factor in the regional banking crisis, including the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
Where does this data come from?
Source: Gallup (2023)
Data Notes: Results are based on telephone interviews conducted April 3-25, 2023, with a random sample of –1,013—adults, ages 18+, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on this sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. See source for details.
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