It's Time to Pile Back Into Gold Stocks (Charts)
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It’s Time to Pile Back Into Gold Stocks [Charts]

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The blessing and curse of being a contrarian is this: an inevitable outcome is recognized well before it comes to fruition. Even though profitable opportunities may be identified well in advance, it can take so long for hallmark events such as capitulation to happen, that it gives ample time to second guess one’s convictions.

We’ve believed, even before the correction that has recently hit U.S. markets, that the bear market for gold was long in the tooth. With asset bubbles all over the place, it has seemed for awhile that gold and silver were the only assets that were reasonably priced. Then yesterday, our friends at Palisade Capital sent us over five charts on why they believe that gold stocks are the most undervalued that they have been in decades.

We tend to agree with that sentiment, which is why in last week’s chart of the week we predicted that gold had already bottomed and that it had nowhere to go but up. (We further predicted that other commodities such as base metals would continue to get routed for the time being, and that U.S. equities would not return to the same levels for awhile.)

In any case, here are the charts:

1. The divergence between the S&P 500 and Bloomberg Commodity Index is at an all-time high.
Bloomberg Commodities Index vs. S&P 500

2. The bear market in the TSX Venture now stands at 1,090+ days.
TSX Venture Bear Market
The TSX Venture, the Canadian home to the majority of the world’s junior mining stocks, is still plagued with plenty of zombie stocks that amount to billions of dollars of negative working capital. The exchange and regulators have also been readily criticized for recent changes that limit access to capital from retail investors. However, in spite of all of this, there are truly some great projects and assets lying in some of the companies that have survived the onslaught. As you’ll see in the next chart, these companies have never been more undervalued.

3. Gold stocks have never been this cheap relative to the price of gold.
HUI to gold price chart
The Gold BUGS Index (HUI), which tracks the world’s largest gold miners, was last this low when gold was only $250/oz.

4. The gold bear market is closing in on being the longest in BGMI history.
Gold bear markets
Using the Barron’s Gold Mining Index (BGMI), this is already the worst bear market for gold miners. However, in just a couple of months, it will also surpass the 1996-2000 bear market as the longest.

5. The ratio between the gold/silver sector to the S&P 500 is unprecedented.
S&P 500 to Gold/Silver market ratio
When pricing the S&P 500 in terms of the Gold/Silver Sector Index (XAU), it has never been this expensive. Put another way: gold and silver has never been this cheap.

Chart credit to: Palisade Research and The Daily Gold

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Energy

The Periodic Table of Endangered Elements

90 different elements form the building blocks for everything on Earth. Some are being used up, and soon could be endangered.

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The Periodic Table of Endangered Elements

The building blocks for everything on Earth are made from 90 different naturally occurring elements.

This visualization made by the European Chemical Society (EuChemS), shows a periodic table of these 90 different elements, highlighting which ones are in abundance and which ones are in serious threat as of 2021.

On the graphic, the area of each element relates to its number of atoms on a logarithmic scale. The color-coding shows whether there’s enough of each element, or whether the element is becoming scarce, based on current consumption levels.

ElementFull NameStatus
AcActiniumPlentiful supply
AgSilverSerious threat
AIAluminumPlentiful supply
ArArgonPlentiful supply
AsArsenicSerious threat
AtAstatinePlentiful supply
AuGoldLimited availability
BBoronLimited availability
BaBariumPlentiful supply
BeBerylliumPlentiful supply
BiBismuthLimited availability
BrBrominePlentiful supply
CCarbonPlentiful supply / serious threat
CaCalciumPlentiful supply
CdCadmiumRising threat
CeCeriumPlentiful supply
CIChlorinePlentiful supply
CoCobaltRising threat
CrChromiumRising threat
CsCesiumPlentiful supply
CuCopperRising threat
DyDysprosiumRising threat
ErErbiumPlentiful supply
EuEuropiumPlentiful supply
FFlourinePlentiful supply
FeIronPlentiful supply
FrFranciumPlentiful supply
GaGalliumSerious threat
GdGadoliniumPlentiful supply
GeGermaniumSerious threat
HHydrogenPlentiful supply
HeHeliumSerious threat
HfHafniumSerious threat
HgMercuryLimited availability
HoHolmiumPlentiful supply
IIodinePlentiful supply
InIndiumSerious threat
IrIridiumRising threat
KPotassiumPlentiful supply
KrKryptonPlentiful supply
LaLanthanumPlentiful supply
LiLithiumLimited availability
LuLutetiumPlentiful supply
MgMagnesiumLimited availability
MnManganeseLimited availability
MoMolybdenumLimited availability
NNitrogenPlentiful supply
NaSodiumPlentiful supply
NbNiobiumLimited availability
NdNeodymiumLimited availability
NeNeonPlentify supply
NiNickelLimited availability
OOxygenPlentiful supply
OsOsmiumRising threat
PPhosphorusLimited availability
PaProtactiniumPlentiful supply
PbLeadLimited availability
PdPalladiumRising threat
PoPoloniumPlentiful supply
PrPraseodymiumPlentiful supply
PtPlatinumRising threat
RaRadiumPlentiful supply
RbRubidiumPlentiful supply
ReRheniumPlentiful supply
RhRhodiumRising threat
RnRadonPlentify supply
RuRutheniumRising threat
SbAntimonyLimited availability
ScScandiumLimited availability
SeSeleniumLimited availability
SiSiliconPlentiful supply
SSulfurPlentiful supply
SmSamariumPlentiful supply
SnTinLimited availability
SrStrontiumSerious threat
TaTantalumSerious threat
TbTerbiumPlentiful supply
TeTelluriumSerious threat
TiTitaniumPlentiful supply
TIThaliumLimited availability
TmThuliumPlentiful supply
VVanadiumLimited availability
WTungstenLimited availability
XeXenonPlentiful supply
YYttriumSerious threat
YbYtterbiumPlentiful supply
ZnZincSerious threat
ZrZirconiumLimited availability
ThThoriumPlentiful supply
UUraniumRising threat

While these elements don’t technically run out and instead transform (except for helium, which rises and escapes from Earth’s atmosphere), some are being used up exceptionally fast, to the point where they may soon become extremely scarce.

One element worth pointing out on the graphic is carbon, which is three different colors: green, red, and dark gray.

  • Green, because carbon is in abundance (to a fault) in the form of carbon dioxide
  • Red, because it will soon cause a number of cataphoric problems if consumption habits don’t change
  • Gray because carbon-based fuels often come from conflict countries

For more elements-related content, check out our channel dedicated to raw materials and the megatrends that drive them, VC Elements.

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Mining

Mapped: The 10 Largest Gold Mines in the World, by Production

Gold mining companies produced over 3,500 tonnes of gold in 2021. Where in the world are the largest gold mines?

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The 10 Largest Gold Mines in the World, by Production

This was originally posted on Elements. Sign up to the free mailing list to get beautiful visualizations on natural resource megatrends in your email every week.

Gold mining is a global business, with hundreds of mining companies digging for the precious metal in dozens of countries.

But where exactly are the largest gold mines in the world?

The above infographic uses data compiled from S&P Global Market Intelligence and company reports to map the top 10 gold-producing mines in 2021.

Editor’s Note: The article uses publicly available global production data from the World Gold Council to calculate the production share of each mine. The percentages slightly differ from those calculated by S&P.

The Top Gold Mines in 2021

The 10 largest gold mines are located across nine different countries in North America, Oceania, Africa, and Asia.

Together, they accounted for around 13 million ounces or 12% of global gold production in 2021.

RankMineLocationProduction (ounces)% of global production
#1Nevada Gold Mines🇺🇸 U.S. 3,311,0002.9%
#2Muruntau🇺🇿 Uzbekistan 2,990,0202.6%
#3Grasberg🇮🇩 Indonesia 1,370,0001.2%
#4Olimpiada🇷🇺 Russia 1,184,0681.0%
#5Pueblo Viejo🇩🇴 Dominican Republic 814,0000.7%
#6Kibali🇨🇩 Democratic Republic of the Congo 812,0000.7%
#7Cadia🇦🇺 Australia 764,8950.7%
#8Lihir🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea 737,0820.6%
#9Canadian Malartic🇨🇦 Canada 714,7840.6%
#10Boddington🇦🇺 Australia 696,0000.6%
N/ATotalN/A13,393,84911.7%

Share of global gold production is based on 3,561 tonnes (114.5 million troy ounces) of 2021 production as per the World Gold Council.

In 2019, the world’s two largest gold miners—Barrick Gold and Newmont Corporation—announced a historic joint venture combining their operations in Nevada. The resulting joint corporation, Nevada Gold Mines, is now the world’s largest gold mining complex with six mines churning out over 3.3 million ounces annually.

Uzbekistan’s state-owned Muruntau mine, one of the world’s deepest open-pit operations, produced just under 3 million ounces, making it the second-largest gold mine. Muruntau represents over 80% of Uzbekistan’s overall gold production.

Only two other mines—Grasberg and Olimpiada—produced more than 1 million ounces of gold in 2021. Grasberg is not only the third-largest gold mine but also one of the largest copper mines in the world. Olimpiada, owned by Russian gold mining giant Polyus, holds around 26 million ounces of gold reserves.

Polyus was also recently crowned the biggest miner in terms of gold reserves globally, holding over 104 million ounces of proven and probable gold between all deposits.

How Profitable is Gold Mining?

The price of gold is up by around 50% since 2016, and it’s hovering near the all-time high of $2,000/oz.

That’s good news for gold miners, who achieved record-high profit margins in 2020. For every ounce of gold produced in 2020, gold miners pocketed $828 on average, significantly higher than the previous high of $666/oz set in 2011.

With inflation rates hitting decade-highs in several countries, gold mining could be a sector to watch, especially given gold’s status as a traditional inflation hedge.

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