Infographic: Investing in the Rise of the New Spending Class
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Investing in the Rise of the New Spending Class

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Investing in the Rise of the New Spending Class

Investing in the Rise of the New Spending Class

It’s no secret that the world has been a little down on China.

The world’s most populous country has been the primary engine of economic growth for decades, but recently investor optimism around China has diminished significantly. With a sliding manufacturing sector and lower GDP growth, most mainstream pundits have shifted focus to whether the country will have a “soft” or a “hard” landing.

Ever the contrarian, investor and author Gianni Kovacevic is not one to buy into this Kool Aid.

In his new book “My Electrician Drives a Porsche?”, Kovacevic examines the fundamentals around China and other emerging markets to create perspective on the newest and fastest-growing generation of consumers. Using an allegorical conversation between a doctor and his Porsche-driving electrician, the impact and ripple effects of this new “spending class” are described, affecting everything from the economy to the environment.

We thought the book had some great statistics on emerging markets, and that the easy-to-follow conversation was an effective way at introducing the contrarian way of thinking. Further, the book also outlines an interesting track on how to invest in green energy specifically.

Key Themes

Today’s infographic pulls some of the themes from this book to show who makes up the new spending class, and why their inevitable rise will translate to a blossoming green energy sector. There is much more meat to the book and to avoid spoilers, we’ve left out Kovacevic’s ultimate investment conclusion.

However, here are some of the points that we thought were most compelling:

Millennials

Millennials get a lot of media coverage in the United States. There’s 87 million of them and they have already had a profound impact on the economy. That said, it is incredible to think that the same generation in China is nearly 5x as big with 415 million people. This cohort of millennials (16-35 years old) in China is larger than the entire working populations of the U.S., Canada, and Western Europe combined.

Millennials in China and other emerging markets are nothing like previous generations. For example, in China, millennials have already earned 107 million college degrees, while all other previous generations have combined for a grand total of only 14 million. Newly educated and aware of the modern world through technology, China’s millennials do not want to work in factories or fields.

Spending Class Potential

China’s spectacular growth isn’t coming to an end anytime soon. The country is in 74th place worldwide in GDP per capita with $8,280. This is compared to neighboring countries such as Japan and South Korea, which have amounts closer to $30,000 per capita.

Only 22% of the Chinese population has drivers licenses, yet the country is already the largest auto market in the world with close to 25 million cars sold per year. Imagine how many refrigerators, air conditioners, and other basic comfort products the spending class will be buying over the coming years as their disposable income rises.

Energy

The common denominator of these goods is that they all take significant amounts of raw materials and energy to manufacture. Most of these goods, such as refrigerators or air conditions, require great amounts of energy to constantly power as well.

Today, the average person in China uses less than 30% of the energy used each year by an American. As 400 million people buy these essential goods of human progress and comfort, the energy draw will rise rapidly. Where will this energy come from?

Certainly all power sources will be a part of this energy mix going forward, but China is leaning green the most. Air pollution is so bad in China that it is commonly referred to as the “Airpocalypse”. It’s estimated that pollution kills 4,000 people per day in China, and green energy will help combat this problem.

That’s why China is building 1,000 GW of green energy capacity between 2014 and 2030, which is the equivalent of 90% of the entire current U.S. energy grid.

Tesla Tour

To amplify the message of the book, Gianni Kovacevic is embarking on “The Realistic Environmentalist Tesla Tour” to 32 official cities in North America. This one-of-a-kind, zero emissions book tour will be facilitated by driving a Tesla Model S from Toronto to California. The objective is to enlighten millions of people by illustrating what makes green energy and human progress factually possible while debunking common myths from the validity of electric cars to the future of energy.

Here’s more on the Tesla Tour in his own words:

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Economy

The $16 Trillion European Union Economy

This chart shows the contributors to the EU economy through a percentage-wise distribution of country-level GDP.

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The $16 Trillion European Union Economy

The European Union has the third-largest economy in the world, accounting for one-sixth of global trade. All together, 27 member countries make up one internal market allowing free movement of goods, services, capital and people.

But how did this sui generis (a class by itself) political entity come into being?

A Brief History of the EU

After the devastating aftermath of the World War II, Western Europe saw a concerted move towards regional peace and security by promoting democracy and protecting human rights.

Crucially, the Schuman Declaration was presented in 1950. The coal and steel industries of Western Europe were integrated under common management, preventing countries from turning on each other and creating weapons of war. Six countries signed on — the eventual founders of the EU.

Here’s a list of all 27 members of the EU and the year they joined.

CountryYear of entry
🇧🇪 Belgium1958
🇫🇷 France1958
🇩🇪 Germany1958
🇮🇹 Italy1958
🇱🇺 Luxembourg1958
🇳🇱 Netherlands1958
🇩🇰 Denmark1973
🇮🇪 Ireland1973
🇬🇷 Greece1981
🇵🇹 Portugal1986
🇪🇸 Spain1986
🇦🇹 Austria1995
🇫🇮 Finland1995
🇸🇪 Sweden1995
🇨🇾 Cyprus2004
🇨🇿 Czechia2004
🇪🇪 Estonia2004
🇭🇺 Hungary2004
🇱🇻 Latvia2004
🇱🇹 Lithuania2004
🇲🇹 Malta2004
🇵🇱 Poland2004
🇸🇰 Slovakia2004
🇸🇮 Slovenia2004
🇧🇬 Bulgaria2007
🇷🇴 Romania2007
🇭🇷 Croatia2013

Greater economic and security cooperation followed over the next four decades, along with the addition of new members. These tighter relationships disincentivized conflict, and Western Europe—after centuries of constant war—has seen unprecedented peace for the last 80 years.

The modern version of the EU can trace its origin to 1993, with the adoption of the name, ‘the European Union,’ the birth of a single market, and the promise to use a single currency—the euro.

Since then the EU has become an economic and political force to reckon with. Its combined gross domestic product (GDP) stood at $16.6 trillion in 2022, after the U.S. ($26 trillion) and China ($19 trillion.)

ℹ️ GDP is a broad indicator of the economic activity within a country. It measures the total value of economic output—goods and services—produced within a given time frame by both the private and public sectors.

Front Loading the EU Economy

For the impressive numbers it shows however, the European Union’s economic might is held up by three economic giants, per data from the International Monetary Fund. Put together, the GDPs of Germany ($4 trillion), France ($2.7 trillion) and Italy ($1.9 trillion) make up more than half of the EU’s entire economic output.

These three countries are also the most populous in the EU, and together with Spain and Poland, account for 66% of the total population of the EU.

Here’s a table of all 27 member states and the percentage they contribute to the EU’s gross domestic product.

RankCountry GDP (Billion USD)% of the EU Economy
1.🇩🇪 Germany4,031.124.26%
2.🇫🇷 France2,778.116.72%
3.🇮🇹 Italy1,997.012.02%
4.🇪🇸 Spain1,390.08.37%
5.🇳🇱 Netherlands990.65.96%
6.🇵🇱 Poland716.34.31%
7.🇸🇪 Sweden603.93.64%
8.🇧🇪 Belgium589.53.55%
9.🇮🇪 Ireland519.83.13%
10.🇦🇹 Austria468.02.82%
11.🇩🇰 Denmark386.72.33%
12.🇷🇴 Romania299.91.81%
13.🇨🇿 Czechia295.61.78%
14.🇫🇮 Finland281.41.69%
15.🇵🇹 Portugal255.91.54%
16.🇬🇷 Greece222.01.34%
17.🇭🇺 Hungary184.71.11%
18.🇸🇰 Slovakia112.40.68%
19.🇧🇬 Bulgaria85.00.51%
20.🇱🇺 Luxembourg82.20.49%
21.🇭🇷 Croatia69.40.42%
22.🇱🇹 Lithuania68.00.41%
23.🇸🇮 Slovenia62.20.37%
24.🇱🇻 Latvia40.60.24%
25.🇪🇪 Estonia39.10.24%
26.🇨🇾 Cyprus26.70.16%
27.🇲🇹 Malta17.20.10%
Total16,613.1100%

The top-heaviness continues. By adding Spain ($1.3 trillion) and the Netherlands ($990 billion), the top five make up nearly 70% of the EU’s GDP. That goes up to 85% when the top 10 countries are included.

That means less than half of the 27 member states make up $14 trillion of the $16 trillion EU economy.

Older Members, Larger Share

Aside from the most populous members having bigger economies, another pattern emerges, with the time the country has spent in the EU.

Five of the six founders of the EU—Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium—are in the top 10 biggest economies of the EU. Ireland and Denmark, the next entrants into the union (1973) are ranked 9th and 11th respectively. The bottom 10 countries all joined the EU post-2004.

The UK—which joined the bloc in 1973 and formally left in 2020—would have been the third-largest economy in the region at $3.4 trillion.

Sectoral Analysis of the EU

The EU has four primary sectors of economic output: services, industry, construction, and agriculture (including fishing and forestry.) Below is an analysis of some of these sectors and the countries which contribute the most to it. All figures are from Eurostat.

Services and Tourism

The EU economy relies heavily on the services sector, accounting for more than 70% of the value added to the economy in 2020. It also is the sector with the highest share of employment in the EU, at 73%.

In Luxembourg, which has a large financial services sector, 87% of the country’s gross domestic product came from the services sector.

Tourism economies like Malta and Cyprus also had an above 80% share of services in their GDP.

Industry

Meanwhile 20% of the EU’s gross domestic product came from industry, with Ireland’s economy having the most share (40%) in its GDP. Czechia, Slovenia and Poland also had a significant share of industry output.

Mining coal and lignite in the EU saw a brief rebound in output in 2021, though levels continued to be subdued.

RankSector% of the EU Economy
1.Services72.4%
2.Industry20.1%
3.Construction5.6%
4.Agriculture, forestry and fishing1.8%

Agriculture

Less than 2% of the EU’s economy relies on agriculture, forestry and fishing. Romania, Latvia, and Greece feature as contributors to this sector, however the share in total output in each country is less than 5%. Bulgaria has the highest employment (16%) in this sector compared to other EU members.

Energy

The EU imports nearly 60% of its energy requirements. Until the end of 2021, Russia was the biggest exporter of petroleum and natural gas to the region. After the war in Ukraine that share has steadily decreased from nearly 25% to 15% for petroleum liquids and from nearly 40% to 15% for natural gas, per Eurostat.

Headwinds, High Seas

The IMF has a gloomy outlook for Europe heading into 2023. War in Ukraine, spiraling energy costs, high inflation, and stagnant wage growth means that EU leaders are facing “severe trade-offs and tough policy decisions.”

Reforms—to relieve supply constraints in the labor and energy markets—are key to increasing growth and relieving price pressures, according to the international body. The IMF projects that the EU will grow 0.7% in 2023.

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