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Infection Trajectory: See Which Countries are Flattening Their COVID-19 Curve

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NOTE: This chart updates daily with new data. Also, the search button in the lower–left corner allows filtering of specific countries.

At the outset of 2020, the world looked on as China grappled with an outbreak that seemed be spiraling out of control.

Two months later, the situation is markedly different. After aggressive testing and quarantine efforts, China’s outbreak of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) appears to be leveling off.

Now, numerous countries around the world are in the beginning stages of managing their own outbreaks. March 15th, 2020, marked a significant statistical milestone for this, as confirmed cases of COVID-19 outside of China surpassed the Chinese total.

The tracker above, by Our World in Data, charts the trajectory of the growing number of countries with more than 100 confirmed cases of COVID-19. As the number of new infections reported around the world continues to grow, which countries are winning the battle against COVID-19, and which are still struggling to slow the rate of infection?

What’s Your National Infection Trajectory?

As of publishing time, 39 countries have passed the threshold of 100 confirmed cases, with many more countries on the cusp. By comparing infection trajectories from the 100 case mark, we’re able to see a clearer picture of how quickly the virus is spreading within various countries.

A rapid “doubling rate” can spell big trouble, as even countries with advanced healthcare systems can become overwhelmed by the sheer number of cases. This was the case in the Lombardy region of Italy, where hospitals were overloaded and an increasing number of medical staff are under quarantine after testing positive for the virus. Nearly 10% of COVID-19 patients in Lombardy required intensive care, which stretched resources to their breaking point.

Other countries are looking to avoid this situation by “flattening the curve” of the pandemic. In other words, preventing and delaying the spread of the virus so that large portions of the population aren’t sick at the same time.

flattening the covid19 curve

Original concept by Drew Harris

Everything’s Canceled

While all the countries on this tracker are united behind a common goal – stamping out COVID-19 as soon as possible – each country has its own approach and unique challenges when it comes to keeping their population safe. Of course, countries that are just beginning to experience exponential growth in case numbers have the benefit of learning from mistakes made elsewhere, and adopting ideas that are proving successful at slowing the rate of infection.

Many jurisdictions are implementing some or all of these measures to help flatten the curve:

  • Quarantining
  • Encouraging social distancing
  • Encouraging working from home
  • Closing schools and other institutions
  • Placing hard limits on the size of crowds at events

The following chart explains why this last measure is critical to limiting the spread of the virus.

event risk assessment chart

View the interactive Event Risk Assessment Tool here.

In scenario B above, which assumes just 20,000 active cases of COVID-19 in the U.S., there’s nearly a 50% chance an infected person will be attending a 10,000 person conference or sporting event. This is precisely the reason why temporary limits on crowd size are popping up in many jurisdictions around the world.

Direct losses due to canceled tech conferences alone, such as SXSW and the Electronic Entertainment Expo, have already surpassed the $1 billion mark, but despite the short-term economic pain of cancellations and decreased entertainment spending, the costs of business-as-usual could be incalculable.

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Economy

Mapped: Indian States with Cities Over 1 Million People

Ten Indian states—most of them from the northeast region of the country—don’t have a single city with 1 million residents.

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A cropped map of Indian states and the number of 1 million+ cities in them.

Mapped: Indian States with Cities Over 1 Million People

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

Slightly more than one-third of the 1.4 billion Indian population lives in an urban area. So where are the country’s most populous cities, and how are they spread across the country’s 28 states and eight union territories?

This map shows the number of Indian urban agglomerations (cities) with more than a million residents in each jurisdiction. Data for this graphic is sourced from 2024 urban agglomeration estimates in the UN World Urbanization Prospects.

Ranked: Indian States by Cities with 1M Residents

India’s Uttar Pradesh state has 10 cities with a population size of 1 million or more. It is also India’s most populous state, home to 240 million people. This makes it comparable to the size of Pakistan, the fifth most populous country in the world.

Indian StateCities with 1M Residents (2024)City Names
Uttar Pradesh10Lucknow, Kanpur, Agra, Meerut,
Varanasi, Prayagraj,
Bareilly, Aligarh,
Moradabad, Saharanpur
Kerala7Kozhikode,
Malappuram,
Thrissur, Kochi,
Thiruvananthapura,
Kannur, Kollam
Maharashtra6Mumbai, Pune,
Nagpur, Nashik,
Aurangabad, Solapur
Tamil Nadu6Chennai, Coimbatore,
Madurai, Tiruppur,
Tiruchirappalli, Salem
Gujarat4Ahmedabad, Surat,
Vadodara, Rajkot
Madhya Pradesh4Indore, Bhopal,
Jabalpur, Gwalior
Jharkhand3Jamshedpur, Ranchi,
Dhanbad
Karnataka3Bengaluru, Mysore,
Hubli-Dharwad
Punjab3Ludhiana, Amritsar,
Jalandhar
Rajasthan3Jaipur, Jodhpur, Kota
West Bengal3Kolkata, Asansol, Siliguri
Andhra Pradesh2Visakhapatnam,
Vijayawada
Chhattisgarh2Raipur, Durg-Bhilainagar
Telangana2Hyderabad, Warangal
Assam1Guwahati
Bihar1Patna
Odisha1Bhubaneswar
Uttarakhand1Dehradun
Chandigarh*1Chandigargh
Delhi*1New Delhi
Jammu & Kashmir*1Srinagar

*Union Territories. Figures rounded. Some city names may have changed since this data was published.

Further south, Kerala (7), Maharashtra (6), and Tamil Nadu (6) also have more than five cities with a million or more people.

Meanwhile, some cities, including India’s national capital, New Delhi, are either in or are themselves union territories—areas directly administered by the central government.

Ten Indian states—most of them from the country’s northeast region—don’t have a single city with 1 million residents.

All together, India has 65 cities with more than one million inhabitants. For comparison, China has 105, and the U.S. has nine.

RankCityState/Union Territory2024 Population
Estimates
1New DelhiDelhi*34M
2MumbaiMaharashtra22M
3KolkataWest Bengal16M
4BengaluruKarnataka14M
5ChennaiTamil Nadu12M
6HyderabadTelangana11M
7AhmadabadGujarat9M
8SuratGujarat8M
9PuneMaharashtra7M
10JaipurRajasthan4M
11KozhikodeKerala4M
12MalappuramKerala4M
13LucknowUttar Pradesh4M
14ThrissurKerala4M
15KochiKerala4M
16IndoreMadhya Pradesh3M
17KanpurUttar Pradesh3M
18NagpurMaharashtra3M
19CoimbatoreTamil Nadu3M
20ThiruvananthapuramKerala3M
21PatnaBihar3M
22BhopalMadhya Pradesh3M
23AgraUttar Pradesh3M
24KannurKerala2M
25VisakhapatnamAndhra Pradesh2M
26VadodaraGujarat2M
27NashikMaharashtra2M
28VijayawadaAndhra Pradesh2M
29KollamKerala2M
30RajkotGujarat2M
31LudhianaPunjab2M
32MaduraiTamil Nadu2M
33RaipurChhattisgarh2M
34MeerutUttar Pradesh2M
35VaranasiUttar Pradesh2M
36SrinagarJammu & Kashmir*2M
37TiruppurTamil Nadu2M
38JamshedpurJharkhand2M
39AurangabadMaharashtra2M
40JodhpurRajasthan2M
41RanchiJharkhand2M
42KotaRajasthan2M
43JabalpurMadhya Pradesh2M
44AsansolWest Bengal2M
45GwaliorMadhya Pradesh2M
46AllahabadUttar Pradesh2M
47AmritsarPunjab1M
48DhanbadJharkhand1M
49BareillyUttar Pradesh1M
50AligarhUttar Pradesh1M
51MoradabadUttar Pradesh1M
52MysoreKarnataka1M
53Durg-BhilainagarChhattisgarh1M
54BhubaneswarOdisha1M
55TiruchirappalliTamil Nadu1M
56ChandigarhChandigarh*1M
57SaharanpurUttar Pradesh1M
58Hubli-DharwadKarnataka1M
59GuwahatiAssam1M
60SalemTamil Nadu1M
61SiliguriWest Bengal1M
62JalandharPunjab1M
63SolapurMaharashtra1M
64WarangalTelangana1M
65DehradunUttarakhand1M

*Union Territories. Figures rounded. Some city names may have changed since this data was published.

Interestingly, three of the five most populous Indian cities (Mumbai, Kolkata, and Chennai) were villages that became key British trading outposts. As a result all three cities have a fort within their city limits which acted as protection against competing colonial interests at the time.

Finally, Uttar Pradesh—which leads the states by number of cities with 1M people—doesn’t have a single metropolis within the top 10.

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