Politics
How the 2016 Presidential Candidates are Getting Their Money
How the 2016 Presidential Candidates are Getting Their Money
With today’s technology and political funding climate, there are a variety of strategies that can be pursued to get much-needed cash into campaign coffers.
If you happen to already be a billionaire, we recommend the “self-funded” approach. That’s what Donald Trump has used thus far, which has enabled him to speak his mind as well as gloat about the donations he’s made to other candidates in the past.
The opposite take would be a grassroots strategy, which is employed by Bernie Sanders and Ben Carson. While they’ve raised far less in total than many other candidates, it is certainly enough to get the ball rolling. Each candidate has gotten 77% and 65% respectively of their funding from donations under $200.
If you’re not a billionaire and don’t have grassroots appeal, we suggest that you start lobbying hard. Wall Street, big corporations, unions, and billionaires are a good place to start. Most candidates fit in this group.
Hillary Clinton and Rick Santorum both rely heavily on maxed out individual donations of $2,700 so far in the 2016 campaign. Hillary also typically relies on big support from Wall Street banks, with Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Credit Suisse among her top all-time donors for previous campaigns. Though, in 2016, so far it is banks like Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan, along with many large law firms doing the heavy lifting.
Others candidates such as Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and Scott Walker rely the most heavily on big donations from the usual suspects. Goldman Sachs is the largest funder of Jeb Bush, who has only raised 12% of his total funds from donations of $2,700 or less. Ted Cruz has gotten the highest percentage of $1 million+ donations, including a $15 million donation from the Wilks brothers to his super PAC. Lastly, Scott Walker has also had some support from ultra-wealthy brothers: Walker is a preferred candidate of the Koch brothers, who are planning to wield nearly $1 billion in funding in the 2016 election cycle.
Original graphic by: NPR
Economy
The Bloc Effect: International Trade with Geopolitical Allies on the Rise
Rising geopolitical tensions are shaping the future of international trade, but what is the effect on trading among G7 and BRICS countries?
The Bloc Effect: International Trade with Allies on the Rise
International trade has become increasingly fragmented over the last five years as countries have shifted to trading more with their geopolitical allies.
This graphic from The Hinrich Foundation, the first in a three-part series covering the future of trade, provides visual context to the growing divide in trade in G7 and pre-expansion BRICS countries, which are used as proxies for geopolitical blocs.
Trade Shifts in G7 and BRICS Countries
This analysis uses IMF data to examine differences in shares of exports within and between trading blocs from 2018 to 2023. For example, we looked at the percentage of China’s exports with other BRICS members as well as with G7 members to see how these proportions shifted in percentage points (pp) over time.
Countries traded nearly $270 billion more with allies in 2023 compared to 2018. This shift came at the expense of trade with rival blocs, which saw a decline of $314 billion.
Country Change in Exports Within Bloc (pp) Change in Exports With Other Bloc (pp)
🇮🇳 India 0.0 3.9
🇷🇺 Russia 0.7 -3.8
🇮🇹 Italy 0.8 -0.7
🇨🇦 Canada 0.9 -0.7
🇫🇷 France 1.0 -1.1
🇪🇺 EU 1.1 -1.5
🇩🇪 Germany 1.4 -2.1
🇿🇦 South Africa 1.5 1.5
🇺🇸 U.S. 1.6 -0.4
🇯🇵 Japan 2.0 -1.7
🇨🇳 China 2.1 -5.2
🇧🇷 Brazil 3.7 -3.3
🇬🇧 UK 10.2 0.5
All shifts reported are in percentage points. For example, the EU saw its share of exports to G7 countries rise from 74.3% in 2018 to 75.4% in 2023, which equates to a 1.1 percentage point increase.
The UK saw the largest uptick in trading with other countries within the G7 (+10.2 percentage points), namely the EU, as the post-Brexit trade slump to the region recovered.
Meanwhile, the U.S.-China trade dispute caused China’s share of exports to the G7 to fall by 5.2 percentage points from 2018 to 2023, the largest decline in our sample set. In fact, partly as a result of the conflict, the U.S. has by far the highest number of harmful tariffs in place.
The Russia-Ukraine War and ensuing sanctions by the West contributed to Russia’s share of exports to the G7 falling by 3.8 percentage points over the same timeframe.
India, South Africa, and the UK bucked the trend and continued to witness advances in exports with the opposing bloc.
Average Trade Shifts of G7 and BRICS Blocs
Though results varied significantly on a country-by-country basis, the broader trend towards favoring geopolitical allies in international trade is clear.
Bloc Change in Exports Within Bloc (pp) Change in Exports With Other Bloc (pp)
Average 2.1 -1.1
BRICS 1.6 -1.4
G7 incl. EU 2.4 -1.0
Overall, BRICS countries saw a larger shift away from exports with the other bloc, while for G7 countries the shift within their own bloc was more pronounced. This implies that though BRICS countries are trading less with the G7, they are relying more on trade partners outside their bloc to make up for the lost G7 share.
A Global Shift in International Trade and Geopolitical Proximity
The movement towards strengthening trade relations based on geopolitical proximity is a global trend.
The United Nations categorizes countries along a scale of geopolitical proximity based on UN voting records.
According to the organization’s analysis, international trade between geopolitically close countries rose from the first quarter of 2022 (when Russia first invaded Ukraine) to the third quarter of 2023 by over 6%. Conversely, trade with geopolitically distant countries declined.
The second piece in this series will explore China’s gradual move away from using the U.S. dollar in trade settlements.
Visit the Hinrich Foundation to learn more about the future of geopolitical trade
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