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What People Think of Globalization, by Country

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What People think of Globalization, by Country

What People Think of Globalization, by Country

View the high resolution version of today’s graphic by clicking here.

More than in the past, the population is divided on whether globalization is a force for good or not.

In the aftermath of events like Brexit and the Trump election, it’s clear that there’s a growing movement of people that are skeptical about wider integration into the global economy and foreign cultures. While this countervailing force has always existed, only recently has it become powerful enough to change the outcomes of key elections and referendums.

But how big is this contingent of the population, and how does it differ in size from country to country?

The Survey

Today’s infographic from Raconteur highlights survey data on the topic of globalization for 19 countries.

The survey, published by YouGov just under a year ago, covers international trade, foreign direct investment, and the impact of immigration. Here is the highest level data, which focuses on globalization in general.

Question: “Overall, do you think globalization is a force for good or bad for the world?”

CountryForce for goodForce for badDon't know
United Kingdom46%19%36%
France37%37%26%
Finland56%18%27%
Denmark68%15%17%
Norway49%23%27%
Sweden63%20%18%
Germany60%20%20%
Australia48%22%29%
Hong Kong63%21%16%
Indonesia72%13%15%
Malaysia73%10%17%
Philippines85%7%8%
Singapore71%12%17%
Thailand76%12%12%
Vietnam91%4%5%
United States40%27%33%
India83%7%10%
UAE69%13%18%
Saudi Arabia48%18%35%

Note: get the data for all questions directly from YouGov here.

Differing Perspectives

Interestingly, support for globalization ranges from 37% (France) all the way to 91% (Vietnam), representing a very diverse array of attitudes towards the topic.

Based on these 19 countries, at least, the places that feel the most positive about globalization tend to be emerging markets such as the Philippines (85%), India (83%), and Indonesia (72%). These are countries where the pie is getting bigger at a rapid rate, as economies expand from access to increased global capital and trade.

The countries that seem the most skeptical seem to be more developed economically. In the United States, only 40% of respondents saw globalization as a force for good, while 27% saw it as a force for bad and a large portion of the population wasn’t sure (33%). The U.K. and Australia have similar numbers, with the aforementioned France having the lowest portion of respondents saying globalization is a force for good.

Though it’s true that these developed countries are showing skepticism, it’s also clear that the Western world is very split on the topic. European countries like Germany (60%), Denmark (68%), Sweden (63%), and Finland (56%) all saw a majority of respondents in favor of globalization.

This split in opinion is hard to reconcile, and it’s likely part of the reason that so many investors remain focused on geopolitical risk in the current environment.

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Markets

3 Reasons Why AI Enthusiasm Differs from the Dot-Com Bubble

Valuations are much lower than they were during the dot-com bubble, but what else sets the current AI enthusiasm apart?

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Two bubbles sized according to the forward p/e ratio of the Nasdaq 100 Index during the dot-com bubble (60.1X) and the current AI Enthusiasm (26.4x).

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The following content is sponsored by New York Life Investments

3 Reasons Why AI Enthusiasm Differs from the Dot-Com Bubble

Artificial intelligence, like the internet during the dot-com bubble, is getting a lot of attention these days. In the second quarter of 2023, 177 S&P 500 companies mentioned “AI” during their earnings call, nearly triple the five-year average.

Not only that, companies that mentioned “AI” saw their stock price rise 13.3% from December 2022 to September 2023, compared to 1.5% for those that didn’t.

In this graphic from New York Life Investments, we look at current market conditions to find out if AI could be the next dot-com bubble.

Comparing the Dot-Com Bubble to Today

In the late 1990s, frenzied optimism for internet-related stocks led to a rapid rise in valuations and an eventual market crash in the early 2000s. By the time the market hit rock bottom, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index had dropped 82% from its peak.

The growing enthusiasm for AI has some concerned that it could be the next dot-com bubble. But here are three reasons that the current environment is different.

1. Valuations Are Lower

Stock valuations are much lower than they were at the peak of the dot-com bubble. For example, the forward price-to-earnings ratio of the Nasdaq 100 is significantly lower than it was in 2000.

DateForward P/E Ratio
March 200060.1x
November 202326.4x

Source: CNBC, Barron’s

Lower valuations are an indication that investors are putting more emphasis on earnings and stocks are less at risk of being overvalued.

2. Investors Are More Hesitant

During the dot-com bubble, flows to equity funds increased by 76% from 1999 to 2000.

YearCombined ETF and Mutual Fund Flows to Equity Funds
1997$231B
1998$163B
1999$200B
2000$352B
2001$63B
2002$14B

In contrast, equity fund flows have been negative in 2022 and 2023.

YearCombined ETF and Mutual Fund Flows to Equity Funds
2021$295B
2022-$54B
2023*-$137B

Source: Investment Company Institute
*2023 data is from January to September.

Based on fund flows, investors appear hesitant of stocks, rather than overly exuberant.

3. Companies Are More Established

Leading up to the internet bubble, the number of technology IPOs increased substantially.

YearNumber of Technology IPOsMedian Age
19971748
19981137
19993704
20002615
2001249
2002209

Many of these companies were relatively new and, at the peak of the bubble in 2000, only 14% of them were profitable.

In recent years, there have been far fewer tech IPOs as companies wait for more positive market conditions. And those that have gone public, the median age is much higher.

YearNumber of Technology IPOsMedian Age
20204812
202112612
2022615

Ultimately, many of the companies benefitting from AI are established companies that are already publicly traded. New, unproven companies are much less common in public markets.

Navigating Modern Tech Amid Dot-Com Bubble Worries

Valuations, equity flows, and the shortage of tech IPOs all suggest that AI is different than the dot-com bubble.

However, risk is still present in the market. For instance, only 33% of tech companies that went public in 2022 were profitable. Investors can help manage their risk by keeping a diversified portfolio rather than choosing individual stocks.

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