Global Recession 2020: When Will the Economy Recover?
With 2020 nearly behind us, many are eagerly looking ahead to what 2021 will bring. COVID-19 vaccinations have begun, and hope is on the horizon for a stronger economy going forward.
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) projects that after a 4.2% drop this year, the global economy will reach pre-pandemic levels in 2021. This animation, which uses data from the OECD, shows which countries will recover the fastest from the global recession in 2020.
Economic Forecast by Country
The projections assume that renewed virus outbreaks remain contained, and that a widely available vaccine near the end of 2021 helps to support confidence. Information used in the projections, such as monetary and fiscal policies, is as of November 27, 2020.
Here is how the economic forecasts break down for both OECD and non-OECD countries, sorted by projected real GDP growth in 2021:
|🇬🇧 United Kingdom||-11.25||4.20||4.10|
China started recovering earlier than most countries, and is projected to be the only country with positive GDP growth in 2020. Strong growth will continue in 2021, when China will account for over one-third of global economic growth.
Meanwhile, India experienced one of the world’s tightest lockdowns and will see a large GDP drop in 2020. The decline has exacerbated inequality, as school closures disrupt meal programmes and prompt dropouts by disadvantaged children. While the economy is forecast to grow from 2021-2022, it may take almost two years for GDP to fully recover.
Out of the countries measured in OECD’s forecast, Argentina will see the biggest GDP decline in 2021. Rising unemployment and inflationary pressures have contributed to the decline.
New Zealand’s GDP loss was similar to the OECD average, despite a larger drop in mobility, from the last quarter of 2019 to the second quarter of 2020. A recovery will partially depend on travel restrictions, as tourism accounted for 20% of the country’s total employment in 2019.
A Fragile Recovery
Considerable uncertainty about near-term GDP projections remain—$7 trillion of uncertainty, to be exact.
A downside scenario would be caused by delayed vaccinations or new outbreaks, and would lead to a $4 trillion GDP loss by 2022 compared to current projections. An upside scenario, spurred by fast vaccine rollout and boosted consumer and business confidence, could add $3 trillion to the global economy.
However, it is likely that the pandemic has caused permanent losses no matter the scenario.
As we wait for vaccines to be widely available, the OECD recommends that governments implement clear COVID-19 containment measures. While debt-to-GDP ratios have risen substantially due to stimulus packages, the organization also recommends that governments maintain strong fiscal support.
In particular, policies should be directed towards the most vulnerable, such as low-skilled workers, small businesses, and children. This may foster a more even recovery from the global recession of 2020.
Companies Going Public in 2021: Visualizing IPO Valuations
Tracking the companies that have gone public in 2021 so far, their valuation, and how they did it.
Companies Going Public in 2021: Visualizing Valuations
The beginning of the year has been a productive one for global markets, and companies going public in 2021 have benefited.
From much-hyped tech initial public offerings (IPOs) to food and healthcare services, many companies with already large followings have gone public this year. Some were supposed to go public in 2020 but got delayed due to the pandemic, and others saw the opportunity to take advantage of a strong current market.
This graphic measures 47 companies that have gone public just past the first half of 2021 (from January to July)— including IPOs, SPACs, and Direct Listings—as well as their subsequent valuations after listing.
Who’s Gone Public in 2021 So Far?
Historically, companies that wanted to go public employed one main method above others: the initial public offering (IPO).
But companies going public today readily choose from one of three different options, depending on market situations, associated costs, and shareholder preference:
- Initial Public Offering (IPO): A private company creates new shares which are underwritten by a financial organization and sold to the public.
- Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC): A separate company with no operations is created strictly to raise capital to acquire the company going public. SPACs are the fastest method of going public, and have become popular in recent years.
- Direct Listing: A private company enters a market with only existing, outstanding shares being traded and no new shares created. The cost is lower than that of an IPO, since no fees need to be paid for underwriting.
So far, the majority of companies going public in 2021 have chosen the IPO route, but some of the biggest valuations have resulted from direct listings.
|Listing Date||Company||Valuation ($B)||Listing Type|
|21-Jan-21||Hims and Hers Health||$1.6||SPAC|
|05-May-21||The Honest Company||$1.4||IPO|
|07-May-21||Blade Air Mobility||$0.83||SPAC|
Though there are many well-known names in the list, one of the biggest through lines continues to be the importance of tech.
A majority of 2021’s newly public companies have been in tech, including multiple mobile apps, websites, and online services. The two biggest IPOs so far were South Korea’s Coupang, an online marketplace valued at $60 billion after going public, and China’s ride-hailing app Didi Chuxing, the year’s largest post-IPO valuation at $73 billion.
And there were many apps and services going public through other means as well. Gaming company Roblox went public through a direct listing, earning a valuation of $30 billion, and cryptocurrency platform Coinbase has earned the year’s largest valuation so far, with an $86 billion valuation following its direct listing.
Big Companies Going Public in Late 2021
As with every year, some of the biggest companies going public are lined up for the later half.
Tech will continue to be the talk of the markets. Payment processing firm Stripe is setting up to be the year’s biggest IPO with an estimated valuation of $95 billion, and now-notorious trading platform Robinhood is looking to go public with an estimated valuation of $12 billion.
But other big players are lined up to capture hot market sentiments as well.
Electric truck startup Rivian Automotive (backed by Amazon) is estimated to earn a public valuation around $70 billion, which would make it one of the world’s largest automakers by market cap. Likewise, online grocery delivery platform InstaCart, which saw a big upswing in traction due to the pandemic, is looking at an estimated valuation of at least $39 billion.
Of course, there’s always a chance that potential public listings and offerings fall through. Whether they get delayed due to weak market conditions or cancelled at the last minute, anything can happen when it comes to public markets.
This post will be periodically updated throughout the year.
Mapped: GDP per Capita Worldwide
GDP per capita is one of the best measures of a country’s standard of living. This map showcases the GDP per capita in every country globally.
Mapped: Visualizing GDP per Capita Worldwide
View the high-resolution of the infographic by clicking here.
GDP per capita has steadily risen globally over time, and in tandem, the standard of living worldwide has increased immensely.
This map using data from the IMF shows the GDP per capita (nominal) of nearly every country and territory in the world.
GDP per capita is one of the best measures of a country’s wealth as it provides an understanding of how each country’s citizens live on average, showing a representation of the quantity of goods and services created per person.
The Standard of Living Over Time
Looking at history, our standard of living has increased drastically. According to Our World in Data, from 1820 to 2018, the average global GDP per capita increased by almost 15x.
Literacy rates, access to vaccines, and basic education have also improved our quality of life, while things like child mortality rates and poverty have all decreased.
For example, in 1990, 1.9 billion people lived in extreme poverty, which was 36% of the world’s population at the time. Over the last 30 years, the number has been steadily decreasing — by 2030, an estimated 479 million people will be living in extreme poverty, which according to UN population estimates, will represent only 6% of the population.
That said, economic inequality between different regions is still prevalent. In fact, the richest country today (in terms of nominal GDP per capita), Luxembourg, is over 471x more wealthy than the poorest, Burundi.
Here’s a look at the 10 countries with the highest GDP per capita in 2021:
However, not all citizens in Luxembourg are extremely wealthy. In fact:
- 29% of people spend over 40% of their income on housing costs
- 31% would be at risk of falling into poverty if they had to forgo 3 months of income
The cost of living is expensive in Luxembourg — but the standard of living in terms of goods and services produced is the highest in the world. Additionally, only 4% of the population reports low life satisfaction.
Emerging Economies and Developing Countries
Although we have never lived in a more prosperous period, and poverty rates have been declining overall, this year global extreme poverty rose for the first time in over two decades.
About 120 million additional people are living in poverty as a result of the pandemic, with the total expected to rise to about 150 million by the end of 2021.
Many of the poorest countries in the world are also considered Least Developed Countries (LDCs) by the UN. In these countries, more than 75% of the population live below the poverty line.
Here’s a look at the 10 countries with the lowest GDP per capita:
Life in these countries offers a stark contrast compared to the top 10. Here’s a glance at the quality of life in the poorest country, Burundi:
- 80% of the population works in agriculture
- 1 in 3 Burundians are in need of urgent humanitarian assistance
- Average households spend up to two-thirds of their income on food
However, many of the world’s poorest countries can also be classified as emerging markets with immense economic potential in the future.
In fact, China has seen the opportunity in emerging economies. Their confidence in these regions is best exemplified in the Belt and Road initiative which has funneled massive investments into infrastructure projects across multiple African countries.
Continually Raising the Bar
Prosperity is a very recent reality only characterizing the last couple hundred years. In pre-modern societies, the average person was living in conditions that would be considered extreme poverty by today’s standards.
Overall, the standard of living for everyone today is immensely improved compared to even recent history, and some countries will be experiencing rapid economic growth in the future.
GDP per Capita in 2021: Full Dataset
|Country||GDP per Capita (Nominal, 2021, USD)|
|🇺🇸 United States||$66,144|
|Hong Kong SAR||$47,990|
|United Arab Emirates||$32,686|
|Trinidad and Tobago||$16,622|
|Saint Kitts and Nevis||$16,491|
|Antigua and Barbuda||$14,748|
|Saint Vincent and the Grenadines||$7,401|
|Bosnia and Herzegovina||$6,536|
|West Bank and Gaza||$3,060|
|Papua New Guinea||$2,596|
|Republic of Congo||$2,271|
|São Tomé and Príncipe||$2,133|
|Central African Republic||$522|
|Democratic Republic of the Congo||$478|
Editor’s note: Readers have rightly pointed out that Monaco is one of the world’s richest countries in GDP per capita (nominal) terms. This is true, but the IMF dataset excludes Monaco and lists it as “No data” each year. As a result, it is excluded from the visualization(s) above.
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