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Animation: Mapping the Recovery from the Global Recession of 2020

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Global Recession 2020: When Will the Economy Recover?

With 2020 nearly behind us, many are eagerly looking ahead to what 2021 will bring. COVID-19 vaccinations have begun, and hope is on the horizon for a stronger economy going forward.

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) projects that after a 4.2% drop this year, the global economy will reach pre-pandemic levels in 2021. This animation, which uses data from the OECD, shows which countries will recover the fastest from the global recession in 2020.

Economic Forecast by Country

The projections assume that renewed virus outbreaks remain contained, and that a widely available vaccine near the end of 2021 helps to support confidence. Information used in the projections, such as monetary and fiscal policies, is as of November 27, 2020.

Here is how the economic forecasts break down for both OECD and non-OECD countries, sorted by projected real GDP growth in 2021:

Country2020P2021P2022P
🇨🇳 China1.788.044.95
🇮🇳 India-9.867.904.83
🇫🇷 France-9.116.033.27
🇪🇸 Spain-11.635.003.99
🇧🇪 Belgium-7.454.692.68
🇮🇹 Italy-9.054.293.17
🇨🇱 Chile-6.044.252.96
🇬🇧 United Kingdom-11.254.204.10
🇮🇩 Indonesia-2.433.965.05
🇦🇷 Argentina-12.923.714.55
Mexico-9.193.563.43
Canada-5.393.472.01
Colombia-8.323.473.73
Slovenia-7.513.443.54
Estonia-4.743.423.33
Bulgaria-4.123.313.71
Sweden-3.223.273.31
Australia-3.833.243.06
Norway-1.183.231.55
United States-3.703.193.46
South Africa-8.133.092.53
Iceland-7.683.003.20
Poland-3.512.923.82
Turkey-1.302.923.20
Russia-4.282.852.23
South Korea-1.092.843.36
Germany-5.532.803.31
New Zealand-4.812.732.63
Slovakia-6.292.684.34
Lithuania-1.952.673.14
Brazil-6.022.622.16
Hungary-5.662.553.40
Latvia-4.352.404.01
Japan-5.292.321.49
Israel-4.152.274.20
Switzerland-4.692.163.38
Romania-5.322.014.41
Costa Rica-5.581.993.84
Denmark-3.881.802.51
Portugal-8.431.721.87
Finland-3.971.541.83
Czech Republic-6.791.503.27
Luxembourg-4.451.473.76
Austria-8.031.382.31
Greece-10.10.906.58
Netherlands-4.550.822.95
Ireland-3.200.114.27

China started recovering earlier than most countries, and is projected to be the only country with positive GDP growth in 2020. Strong growth will continue in 2021, when China will account for over one-third of global economic growth.

Meanwhile, India experienced one of the world’s tightest lockdowns and will see a large GDP drop in 2020. The decline has exacerbated inequality, as school closures disrupt meal programmes and prompt dropouts by disadvantaged children. While the economy is forecast to grow from 2021-2022, it may take almost two years for GDP to fully recover.

Out of the countries measured in OECD’s forecast, Argentina will see the biggest GDP decline in 2021. Rising unemployment and inflationary pressures have contributed to the decline.

New Zealand’s GDP loss was similar to the OECD average, despite a larger drop in mobility, from the last quarter of 2019 to the second quarter of 2020. A recovery will partially depend on travel restrictions, as tourism accounted for 20% of the country’s total employment in 2019.

A Fragile Recovery

Considerable uncertainty about near-term GDP projections remain—$7 trillion of uncertainty, to be exact.

World GDP Projections

A downside scenario would be caused by delayed vaccinations or new outbreaks, and would lead to a $4 trillion GDP loss by 2022 compared to current projections. An upside scenario, spurred by fast vaccine rollout and boosted consumer and business confidence, could add $3 trillion to the global economy.

However, it is likely that the pandemic has caused permanent losses no matter the scenario.

As we wait for vaccines to be widely available, the OECD recommends that governments implement clear COVID-19 containment measures. While debt-to-GDP ratios have risen substantially due to stimulus packages, the organization also recommends that governments maintain strong fiscal support.

In particular, policies should be directed towards the most vulnerable, such as low-skilled workers, small businesses, and children. This may foster a more even recovery from the global recession of 2020.

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Ranked: Top 10 Single-Day Market Cap Gains

Nvidia broke the record for the largest single-day market cap gains after adding nearly $250B on Feb. 22, 2024.

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The 10 Biggest Single-Day Market Cap Gains

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

Since the COVID-19 pandemic, U.S. tech stocks have led in terms of market cap gains, sometimes boosting their valuations by hundreds of billions of dollars in a single day.

In this graphic, we’ve ranked the largest single-day gains ever recorded, using data from Bloomberg.

Top 10 List

The top 10 list includes just 5 companies, and all are based in the U.S.

RankDateCompanySingle-day
Market Cap Gain
(USD billions)
1Feb 22, 2024NVIDIA$247.0
2Feb 2, 2024Meta$196.8
3Nov 10, 2022Apple$190.9
4Feb 4, 2022Amazon$190.8
5May 25, 2023NVIDIA$184.1
6Jan 28, 2022Apple$178.9
7Jul 31, 2020Apple$169.0
8Oct 28, 2022Apple$150.5
9Mar 13, 2020Microsoft$150.4
10Apr 26, 2023Microsoft$148.3

To put these massive gains into context, consider this: As of May 2023, the average market cap of an S&P 500 company was $30.4 billion.

Meta’s $197B Record Didn’t Last Long

On Feb 2. 2024, Meta set a new record for the largest single-day gain after reporting strong quarterly earnings, as well as announcing $50B in share repurchases and its first ever dividend payment.

This record lasted only 20 days, however, as Nvidia’s massive Q4 2024 earnings beat sent it to all-time highs. The firm is now nearing a $2T valuation, firmly placing it among the world’s most valuable corporations.

More on Nvidia’s Earnings…

Nvidia reported $12.3B in net income during Q4 2024, which is 769% higher than the same quarter last year. Revenues are also up 265% from last year, largely driven by demand for its AI chips like the H100 Tensor Core GPU.

Nvidia’s earnings have seemingly shifted the AI craze into another gear, boosting other chip stocks like AMD and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) to double-digit % gains for the day (Feb 22).

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