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Mapped: Global Real Estate Bubble Risk in 2024

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This map shows the real estate bubble risk of 25 cities around the world in 2024.

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Global Real Estate Bubble Risk in 2024

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In many major cities, real home prices have declined as high interest rates are dampening demand.

Simultaneously, property markets are slowing due to tough financing conditions and rising construction costs. As a result, housing bubble risks have eased in cities like Hong Kong, London, and New York. However, strong demand in the luxury market and a booming stock market are fueling bubble risks in cities like Miami and Los Angeles.

This graphic shows the cities with the highest real estate bubble risk, based on the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2024.

Methodology

To analyze real estate bubble risk, UBS looked at the following factors across 25 major cities:

  • Price-to-income ratio
  • Price-to-rent ratio
  • Change in mortgage-to-GDP ratio
  • Change in construction-to-GDP ratio
  • City-to-country price ratio

More specifically, bubble risk refers to the likelihood of a significant price correction due to distortions in global property markets

Miami Ranks Highest for Housing Bubble Risk

With real housing prices increasing nearly 50% since the end of 2019, Miami has the highest bubble risk across cities analyzed.

This has pushed the price-to-income ratio higher, as buyers compete for limited waterfront luxury properties. At the same time, the city’s relative affordability compared to other major U.S. metros, along with no state income tax and a favorable climate, has fueled demand.

RankCityBubble Risk Score 2024Rating
1Miami1.79Bubble Risk
2Tokyo1.67Bubble Risk
3Zurich1.51Bubble Risk
4Los Angeles1.17Overvalued
5Toronto1.03Overvalued
6Geneva1.00Overvalued
7Amsterdam0.98Overvalued
8Sydney0.78Overvalued
9Boston0.78Overvalued
10Vancouver0.77Overvalued
11Frankfurt0.75Overvalued
12Hong Kong0.74Overvalued
13Tel Aviv0.69Overvalued
14Dubai0.64Overvalued
15Singapore0.59Overvalued
16Madrid0.56Overvalued
17Munich0.54Overvalued
18San Francisco0.48Fair Valued
19London0.41Fair Valued
20New York0.37Fair Valued
21Paris0.35Fair Valued
22Stockholm0.32Fair Valued
23Warsaw0.23Fair Valued
24Milan0.20Fair Valued
25São Paulo0.04Fair Valued

Ranking in second is Tokyo, one of the most unaffordable cities in the world.

Ultra-loose monetary policy and economic stability has contributed to high property valuations in Tokyo. Last year, a 646 square foot apartment cost 15 times more than an average skilled worker’s salary, exceeding levels seen in London and New York.

Although Dubai hasn’t entered bubble territory, home prices surged 17% between Q2 2023 and Q2 2024—the fastest increase among the cities analyzed. Over the past year, the city saw record transaction volumes and strong population growth as buyers flocked to this global financial hub.

By contrast, a number of cities saw their bubble risk decline as real home values dropped, including London, Hong Kong, Paris, and Toronto.

Learn More on the Voronoi App

To learn more about this topic from a housing affordability perspective, check out this graphic on the least affordable property markets around the world.

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