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These Global Cities Show the Highest Real Estate Bubble Risk

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World map showing which cities show the greatest real estate bubble risk

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These Global Cities Show the Highest Real Estate Bubble Risk

Housing bubbles are a tricky phenomenon. As a market gathers steam and prices increase, it remains a matter of debate whether that market is overvalued and flooded with speculation, or it’s simply experiencing robust demand.

Of course, once a bubble bursts, it’s all obvious in hindsight.

One common red flag is when prices decouple from local incomes and rents. As well, imbalances in the real economy, such as excessive construction activity and lending can signal a bubble in the making.

The map above, based on data from the Real Estate Bubble Index by UBS, examines 25 global cities, scoring them based on their bubble risk.

Overinflated Markets

In the 2022 edition of the Real Estate Bubble Index, nine of the cities covered were classified as having extreme bubble risk (1.5 or higher score).

RankRisk CategoryCityBubble Index Score
#1🔴🇨🇦 Toronto2.24
#2🔴🇩🇪 Frankfurt2.21
#3🔴🇨🇭 Zurich1.81
#4🔴🇩🇪 Munich1.80
#5🔴🇭🇰 Hong Kong1.71
#6🔴🇨🇦 Vancouver1.70
#7🔴🇳🇱 Amsterdam1.62
#8🔴🇮🇱 Tel Aviv1.59
#9🔴🇯🇵 Tokyo1.56
#10🟠🇺🇸 Miami1.39
#11🟠🇺🇸 Los Angeles1.31
#12🟠🇸🇪 Stockholm1.22
#13🟠🇫🇷 Paris1.21
#14🟠🇦🇺 Sydney1.19
#15🟠🇨🇭 Geneva1.14
#16🟠🇬🇧 London1.08
#17🟠🇺🇸 San Francisco0.78
#18🟠🇺🇸 Boston0.75
#19🟠🇪🇸 Madrid0.59
#20🟠🇺🇸 New York0.57
#21🟠🇸🇬 Singapore0.50
#22🟢🇮🇹 Milan0.34
#23🟢🇧🇷 Sao Paulo0.20
#24🟢🇦🇪 Dubai0.16
#25🟢🇵🇱 Warsaw0.15

Canada’s largest city finds itself at the top of a ranking no city wants to end up on. Toronto’s home prices have been rising steadily for years now, and many, including UBS, believe that the city is now firmly in bubble territory.

Chart showing Toronto's rising home prices

Vancouver also finds itself in a similar position. Both Canadian cities have a high quality of life and have thriving tech industries.

Notably, none of the U.S. cities analyzed find themselves in the most extreme bubble risk category. The closest scoring U.S. city was Miami, which sits firmly in overvalued territory (0.5-1.5 range) with a score of 1.39.

Examining the Trends

In recent years, low interest rates helped push home prices and incomes further apart.

For cities in the bubble risk zone, prices have climbed by an average of 60% in inflation-adjusted terms over the past decade, while rents and real incomes increased by just 12%. And, while COVID-19 briefly put a dent in urban demand, rents in the cities analyzed rose at around the same pace as pre-pandemic times.

As a result, all but three of the cities saw positive price growth over the past year from a nominal price perspective:

Chart showing real estate price growth rates in global cities in 2021

U.S. cities occupy a number of spots at the top of this chart. Miami, in particular, is seeing strong internal migration patterns, as well as renewed interest from foreign investors.

Hong Kong experienced the biggest one-year nominal drop of all the cities analyzed. The report notes that since around 2019 Hong Kong “has broadly stagnated as the lack of affordability, economic woes, and pandemic restrictions all took a major toll on demand.”

Prices can’t rise forever. According to UBS, most cities with high valuations, price corrections have already begun, or could be right around the corner.

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Ranked: Which NBA Team Takes Home the Most Revenue?

The Celtics and the Mavericks are the fourth and fifth highest-earning teams in the NBA. We show the top teams in the NBA by revenue in 2023.

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This circle graphic shows the top teams in the NBA by revenue during the 2022-2023 season.

Which NBA Team Takes Home the Most Revenues?

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

The NBA is projected to earn $13 billion in revenue this year before revenue sharing and debt payments, a 11% jump from last season, driving NBA team valuations even higher.

Since 2005, NBA team valuations have increased faster than any other major U.S. league by a wide margin. For perspective, the rise in their combined valuation has exceeded growth in the S&P 500 by more than threefold during this time period.

This graphic shows the top NBA teams by revenue, based on data from JP Morgan Asset Management.

Ranked: The Highest-Earning NBA Teams

Below, we show the revenue of all 30 NBA teams as of the 2022-2023 season:

RankingTeam2022-2023 Season
Revenue
Valuation
1Golden State Warriors$765M$7.7B
2Los Angeles Lakers$516M$6.4B
3New York Knicks$504M$6.6B
4Boston Celtics$443M$4.7B
5Dallas Mavericks$429M$4.5B
6Los Angeles Clippers$425M$4.7B
7Houston Rockets$381M$4.4B
8Chicago Bulls$372M$4.6B
9Philadelphia 76ers$371M$4.3B
10Miami Heat$371M$3.9B
11Brooklyn Nets$367M$3.9B
12Phoenix Suns$366M$4.0B
13Denver Nuggets$348M$3.4B
14Cleveland Cavaliers$348M$3.4B
15Milwaukee Bucks$329M$3.2B
16Atlanta Hawks$326M$3.3B
17Washington Wizards$323M$3.5B
18San Antonio Spurs$319M$3.3B
19Toronto Raptors$305M$4.1B
20Portland Trail Blazers$300M$3.1B
21Sacramento Kings$289M$3.3B
22Utah Jazz$274M$3.1B
23Detroit Pistons$274M$3.1B
24Charlotte Hornets$269M$3.0B
25Oklahoma City Thunder$267M$3.1B
26Indiana Pacers$263M$2.9B
27New Orleans Pelicans$262M$2.6B
28Orlando Magic$261M$3.0B
29Minnesota Timberwolves$259M$2.5B
30Memphis Grizzlies$258M$2.4B

Revenue figures are net of arena debt service and revenue sharing

With $765 million in revenue, the Golden State Warriors are the highest-earning team in the league, thanks to the stellar performances of all-star players Klay Thompson, Stephen Curry, and Draymond Green.

These players were instrumental in driving the valuation of the franchise, which grew from $1.5 billion in 2015 to a remarkable $7.7 billion in 2023. At this valuation, the Golden State Warriors are the second-most valuable sports team in America, following after the $9 billion Dallas Cowboys NFL franchise. Since 2010, the Warriors’ revenue has increased by sevenfold.

Not only did the team have the highest NBA TV ratings in seven of the last eight years as of last season, the Warriors have the largest social media following across U.S. sport franchises, including 32.4 million Instagram followers. By comparison, the Lakers have 24.6 million followers. Adding to this, the team’s jersey patch deal with Rakuten is worth approximately $45 million per season alone.

Ranking in second are the Los Angeles Lakers, earning $516 million in revenue. Over the last decade, revenues have increased by 76% fueled by the star power of LeBron James and the team’s world-renowned brand. In 2021, the team signed a five-year $100 million jersey patch deal with Korean food brand, Bibigo, making it one of the most valuable in the league.

The New York Knicks are third in revenue with $504 million, followed by the 2023-24 season champions, the Boston Celtics with $443 million in the 2022-23 season and the Dallas Mavericks in fifth at $429 million.

How Do NBA Teams Earn Revenue?

Below, we show the primary sources of revenue for the National Basketball Association (NBA):

Revenue Stream2022-2023 Season
Revenue
Share of Revenues
National Revenue
(Media/broadcast deals, merchandise, shared ticket revenue, other sponsorships)
$4.5B41%
Seating/Suites$2.9B26%
Local Media$1.4B13%
Team Sponsorships$1.3B12%
Concessions/Parking/Other$0.9B8%

As we can see, national revenue makes up the league’s largest share, driven by broadcasting and streaming agreements with national providers.

Going forward, these contract values are set to grow substantially. Today, the league is negotiating broadcasting deals with Amazon, ESPN, and NBC worth an estimated $76 billion over 11 years—making the annual contract value 2.6 times higher than its current contract. With NBA viewership up 16% across ESPN and ABC compared to the 2021-2022 season, strong demand is driving bigger media deals. During the 2022-2023 season, average viewership reached 1.7 million per game across these outlets.

Ticket and suite sales, another key source of revenue, topped $2.9 billion over the 2022-2023 season. In some cases, courtside tickets cost upwards of $3,000 per seat, with a host of celebrities from Jack Nicholson to Kendall Jenner and Bad Bunny sitting close to the action.

Following next in line were local media deals, worth $1.4 billion, and team sponsorship deals, valued at $1.3 billion.

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