Markets

Charted: Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (1997-2025)

Published

1 month ago

March 17, 2025

Dorothy Neufeld

Graphics/Design:

Sabrina Lam

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Charted: Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (1997-2025)

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Key Takeaways

In January, the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index surged to 428.9, hovering near COVID-19 highs.
This index has tracked global economies since 1997, leveraging a variety of metrics ranging from media coverage of trade to differences in economic forecasts by the Federal Reserve.
New trade wars are driving up uncertainty, as range of consumer goods—from groceries to automotives—could rise in price.

Today, economic policy uncertainty is surging to its highest point since 2020.

As Trump tariffs stand to recalibrate supply chains, the U.S. stock market has whipsawed in response. So far, Canada and Europe have hit the U.S. with retaliatory tariffs while businesses around the world are looking to diversify supply chains as they brace for tariffs.

This graphic shows global economic policy uncertainty since 1997, based on the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index.

Trump Tariffs Stoke High Uncertainty

The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index climbed to 428.9 in January, just shy of its 2020 record.

This is measured across 21 countries, weighted by GDP, according to news analysis. Below, we show how the index has performed across key events over the past three decades:

Date	Event	Economic Policy Index
Nov 1998	Asia Financial Crisis	141.9
Oct 2001	Dot-Com Bubble	179.7
Oct 2008	Global Financial Crisis	205.9
Nov 2016	Trump Elected President	251.3
May 2020	COVID-19	431.6
Jan 2025	Trump Tariffs	429.8

As the trade war escalates, Trump has hit Canada, the European Union, Mexico, and China with tariffs.

Recently, amid 50% counter tariffs on U.S. whiskey from the European Union, Trump threatened a 200% tariff on alcoholic beverages from the bloc. Meanwhile, Europe is considering imposing further retaliatory measures on U.S. exports of steel, aluminum, beef, and nuts.

At the same time, German car makers are increasingly looking to foreign markets beyond the U.S., which generates the highest number of sales for the already beleaguered industry.

Like the EU, Canada plans to impose tariffs on the U.S. following a 25% levy on steel and aluminium. Canada stands as the largest exporter to the U.S. of both steel and aluminum, valued at a combined $16.5 billion in 2024. These countermeasures also include a 25% tariff on tools, computers, and sports equipment, altogether targeting $28.9 billion in U.S. exports.

By one estimate, the price of SUVs assembled in North America could jump by $9,000 if a 25% blanket tariff is imposed on Canada and Mexico in ongoing trade disputes.