Fertility Rates Keep Dropping, and it's Going to Hit the Economy Hard
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Fertility Rates Keep Dropping, and it’s Going to Hit the Economy Hard

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The Chart of the Week is a weekly Visual Capitalist feature on Fridays.

Total fertility rates, which can be defined as the average number of children born to a woman who survives her reproductive years (aged 15-49), have decreased globally by about half since 1960.

This has drastically shaped today’s global economy, but a continued decline could have much more severe long-term consequences. If the world has too many elderly dependents and not enough workers, the burden on economic growth will be difficult to overcome.

Global Fertility Rates

Fertility Rates Start to Decline

First, it’s important to address some of the reasons for these falling fertility rates.

In developed nations the introduction of commercially available birth control has played a large role, but this also coincided with several major societal shifts. Changing religious values, the emancipation of women and their increasing participation in the workforce, and higher costs of childcare and education have all factored into declining fertility rates.

Birthrates Wane, Economy Gains

Initially, reduced child dependency rates were actually beneficial to economic growth.

By delaying childbirth, men and women could gain an education before starting a family. This was important in a shifting labor market where smaller, family-run businesses were in decline and a more skilled and specialized labor force was in demand.

Men and women could also choose to start their careers before having families, while paying more in income taxes and enjoying the benefits of a higher disposable income. Increased spending power creates demand, which stimulates job growth – and the economy benefits in the short-term.

A Global Phenomenon

46% of world population is in countries with rates below replacement

Worldwide fertility rates began to fall substantially in the mid-1960s. While each country has its own underlying causes for this, it is interesting that in developed and developing nations, the downward trend is similar.

Part of this is due to developing countries’ own efforts to rein in their rapidly expanding populations. In China, the One Child Policy was introduced in 1979, however fertility rates had already dropped significantly prior to this. India’s government was also active on this front, sterilizing an estimated 8.3 million people (mostly men) between 1975 and 1977 as a method of population control.

The Age Imbalance

So here we are now, with a global fertility rate of just 2.5 – roughly half of what it was 50 years ago.

Today, 46% of the world’s population lives in countries that are below the average global replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman.

Because these countries (59 to be exact, including BRIC nations Brazil, Russia, and China) are not repopulating quickly enough to sustain their current populations, we are beginning to see a substantial imbalance in the ratio of elderly dependents to working-age people, which will only intensify over the coming decades.

Aging Population Map

By 2100, the U.N. predicts that nearly 30% of the population will be made of people 60 years and older. Life expectancy also continues to increase steadily, which means those dependents will be living even longer. Between 2000 and 2015 the average global life expectancy at birth increased by around 5 years, reaching an average of 73.8 years for females and 69.1 years for males.

Economic Reversal

What does this mean for the economy?

As this large aging population exits the workforce, most of the positive trends that were spurred by declining fertility rates will be reversed, and economic growth will face a significant burden.

Working Age Population

The global increase of elderly dependent populations will have serious economic consequences. Health care costs for the elderly will strain resources, while the smaller working population will struggle to produce enough income tax revenue to support these rising costs. It’s likely this will cause spending power to decrease, consumerism to decline, job production to slow – and the economy to stagnate.

Solutions

Immigration has been a source of short-term population sustenance for many nations, including the U.S. and Britain. However, aside from obvious societal tensions associated with this strategy, immigrants are often adults themselves when they relocate, meaning they too will be elderly dependents soon.

Several nations are already experiencing the effects of a large proportion of elderly dependents. Japan, with one-quarter of its total population currently over the age of 65, has been a pioneer in developing technologies, such as robotics, as a solution to ease strained health care resources. Many countries are restructuring health care programs with long-term solutions in mind, while others are attempting to lower the cost of childcare and education.

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Markets

Mapping The Biggest Companies By Market Cap in 60 Countries

Tech, finance or energy giant? We mapped the biggest companies by market cap and industry.

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Mapping The Biggest Companies By Market Cap in 60 Countries Share

The Biggest Companies By Market Cap in 60 Countries

Tech giants are increasingly making up more of the Fortune 500, but the world’s biggest companies by market cap aren’t so cut and dry.

Despite accounting for the largest market caps worldwide—with trillion-dollar companies like Apple and contenders including Tencent and Samsung—tech wealth is largely concentrated in just a handful of countries.

So what are the biggest companies in each country? We mapped the largest company by market cap across 60 countries in August 2021 using market data from CompaniesMarketCap, TradingView, and MarketScreener.

What are the Largest Companies in the World?

The world has 60+ stock exchanges, and each one has a top company. We looked at the largest local company, since many of the world’s largest firms trade on multiple exchanges, and converted market cap to USD.

CountryCompanyIndustryMarket Cap (August 2021)
USAAppleTechnology$2.5T
Saudi ArabiaSaudi AramcoEnergy$1.9T
TaiwanTSMCTechnology$594.5B
ChinaTencentTechnology$554.0B
South KoreaSamsungTechnology$429.7B
FranceLVMHConsumer Cyclical$414.3B
SwitzerlandRocheHealthcare$350.0B
NetherlandsASMLTechnology$322.6B
JapanToyotaConsumer Cyclical$251.6B
DenmarkNovo NordiskHealthcare$236.7B
IrelandAccentureTechnology$208.2B
IndiaReliance IndustriesEnergy$198.1B
AustraliaBHP GroupMaterials$191.7B
CanadaShopifyTechnology$185.7B
UKAstrazenecaHealthcare$182.0B
GermanySAPTechnology$174.6B
SingaporeSEATechnology$152.3B
Hong KongAIAFinancials$146.4B
BelgiumAnheuser-Busch InbevConsumer Staples$122.7B
SpainInditexConsumer Cyclical$108.3B
BrazilVALEMaterials$103.9B
RussiaSberbankFinancials$96.7B
ItalyEnelUtilities$93.7B
ArgentinaMercadoLibreConsumer Cyclical$89.5B
SwedenAtlas CopcoIndustrials$84.1B
South AfricaNaspersTechnology$74.1B
NorwayEquinorEnergy$67.9B
UAEEtisalatCommunication$58.7B
MexicoWalmexConsumer Staples$58.1B
IndonesiaBank Cental AsiaFinancials$54.8B
KazakhstanKaspi.kzFinancials$49.8B
QatarQNBFinancials$48.2B
FinlandNordea BankFinancials$48.0B
LuxembourgArcelorMittalMaterials$36.3B
AustriaVerbundUtilities$33.7B
ThailandPTT PCLEnergy$30.1B
ColombiaEcopetrolEnergy$26.7B
MalaysiaMaybankFinancials$23.7B
PhilippinesSM InvestmentsConsumer Cyclical$22.9B
KuwaitKuwait Finance HouseFinancials$21.9B
PortugalEDP GroupUtilities$21.0B
VietnamVinhomesReal Estate$17.1B
IsraelNICETechnology$16.9B
KenyaSafaricomCommunication$16.0B
Czech RepublicÄŒEZ GroupEnergy$15.8B
New ZealandXeroTechnology$15.8B
TurkeyQNB FinansbankFinancials$15.8B
HungaryOTP BankFinancials$15.6B
ChileEnel AmericasUtilities$14.3B
MoroccoMaroc TelecomCommunication$13.6B
PolandPKO Bank PolskiFinancials$12.6B
CyprusPolymetalMaterials$10.0B
NigeriaDangote GroupMaterials$10.0B
BahrainAhli United BankFinancials$8.6B
GreeceOTE GroupCommunication$8.4B
PeruCredicorpFinancials$8.0B
EgyptCommercial International BankFinancials$5.9B
IcelandMarelIndustrials$5.8B
OmanBank MuscatFinancials$4.2B
PanamaCopa HoldingsIndustrials$3.1B

Many are former monopolies or massive conglomerates that have grown in the public space, such as South Africa’s Naspers and India’s Reliance Industries.

Others are local subsidiaries of foreign corporations, including Mexico’s Walmex, Chile’s Enel and Turkey’s QNB Finansbank.

But even more noticeable is the economic discrepancy. Apple and Saudi Aramco are worth trillions of dollars, while the smallest companies we tracked—including Panama’s Copa Group and Oman’s Bank Muscat—are worth less than $5 billion.

Finance and Tech Dominate The Biggest Companies By Market Cap

Across the board, the largest companies were able to accumulate wealth and value.

Some are newer to the top thanks to recent success. Canada’s Shopify has become one of the world’s largest e-commerce providers, and the UK’s AstraZeneca developed one of the world’s COVID-19 vaccines.

But the reality is most companies here are old guards that grew on existing resources, or in the case of banks, accumulated wealth.

IndustryBiggest Companies by Country
Financials16
Technology12
Energy6
Materials5
Communication4
Consumer Cyclical4
Utilities4
Healthcare3
Industrials3
Consumer Staples2
Real Estate1

Banks were the most commonly found at the top of each country’s stock market. Closely behind were oil and gas giants, mining companies, and former state-owned corporations that drove most of a country’s wealth generation.

But as more economies develop and catch up to Western economies (where tech is dominant), newer innovative companies will likely put up a fight for each country’s top company crown.

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Technology

Which Companies Belong to the Elite Trillion-Dollar Club?

Only a few companies have broken the 13-digit market cap barrier to join the $1T+ club. Who’s a member, and who’s hot on their heels?

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Which Companies Belong to the Elite Trillion-Dollar Club?

Just a handful of publicly-traded companies have managed to achieve $1 trillion or more in market capitalization—only six, to be precise.

We pull data from Companies Market Cap to find out which familiar names are breaking the 13-digit barrier—and who else is waiting in the wings.

Footnote: All data referenced is as of August 17, 2021.

The Major Players in the Game

Apple and Microsoft are the only two companies to have shattered the $2T market cap milestone to date, leaving others in the dust. Apple was also the first among its Big Tech peers to ascend to the $1 trillion landmark back in 2018.

CompanyValuationCountryAge of company
Apple$2.48T🇺🇸 U.S.45 years (Founded 1976)
Microsoft$2.20T🇺🇸 U.S.46 years (Founded 1975)
Saudi Aramco$1.88T🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia88 years (Founded 1933)
Alphabet (Google)$1.83T🇺🇸 U.S.23 years (Founded 1998)
Amazon$1.64T🇺🇸 U.S.27 years (Founded 1994)
Facebook$1.01T🇺🇸 U.S.17 years (Founded 2004)

Facebook dipped in and out of the $1T+ club in July 2021, and continues its capricious movement. With just 17 years under its belt, it’s the youngest company ever to reach this valuation milestone—though not without some wild rides along the way.

State-owned oil and gas giant Saudi Aramco is the only non-American company to make the trillion-dollar club. This makes it a notable outlier, as American companies typically dominate the leaderboard of the biggest corporations around the world.

Who Else Might Join the Trillion-Dollar Club?

Companies with a market capitalization above $500 billion are also few and far between. Within this next list of six companies, the world’s most valuable automaker Tesla is another strong candidate to eventually join the Four Comma Club.

As per usual, analyst views on Tesla are quite varied. That said, some on Wall Street are predicting that Tesla might reach $3 trillion in market cap within the decade, owing to significant current and projected demand for electric vehicles (EVs) and driverless systems.

CompanyValuationCountryAge of company
Tesla$659B🇺🇸 U.S.17 years (Founded 2003)
Berkshire Hathaway$655B🇺🇸 U.S.182 years (Founded 1839)
TSMC$576B🇹🇼 Taiwan34 years (Founded 1987)
Tencent$537B🇨🇳 China23 years (Founded 1998)
Visa$515B🇺🇸 U.S.63 years (Founded 1958)

Visa, one of the pioneers of consumer credit in the United States, continues to innovate even 63 years after its founding. In attempts to expand the reach of its already massive payments ecosystem, Visa is experimenting with acquisitions, and even dipping its toes into cryptocurrency with some success.

Whether the next company to join the trillion-dollar club comes from the U.S., from the tech industry, or out of left field, it’s clear that it has some pretty big shoes to fill.

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