Markets
3 Insights From the FED’s Latest Economic Snapshot
3 Insights From the Latest U.S. Economic Data
Each month, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes monthly economic snapshots.
To make this report accessible to a wider audience, we’ve identified the three most important takeaways from the report and compiled them into one infographic.
1. Growth figures in Q2 will make or break a recession
Generally speaking, a recession begins when an economy exhibits two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Because U.S. GDP shrank by -1.5% in Q1 2022 (January to March), a lot rests on the Q2 figure (April to June) which should be released on July 28th.
Referencing strong business activity and continued growth in consumer spending, economists predict that U.S. GDP will grow by +2.1% in Q2. This would mark a decisive reversal from Q1, and put an end to recessionary fears for the time being.
Unfortunately, inflation is the top financial concern for Americans, and this is dampening consumer confidence. Shown below, the consumer confidence index reflects the public’s short-term outlook for income, business, and labor conditions.
Falling consumer confidence suggests that more people will delay big purchases such as cars, major appliances, and vacations.
2. The COVID-era housing boom could be over
Housing markets have been riding high since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, but this run is likely coming to an end. Here’s a summary of what’s happened since 2020:
- Lockdowns in early 2020 created lots of pent-up demand for homes
- Greater household savings and record-low mortgage rates pushed demand even further
- Supply chain disruptions greatly increased the cost of materials like lumber
- Construction of new homes couldn’t keep up, and housing supply fell to historic lows
Today, home prices are at record highs and the cost of borrowing is rapidly rising. For evidence, look no further than the 30-year fixed mortgage rate, which has doubled to more than 6% since the beginning of 2022.
Given these developments, the drop in the number of home sales could be a sign that many Americans are being priced out of the market.
3. Don’t expect groceries to become any cheaper
Inflation has been a hot topic this year, especially with gas prices reaching $5 a gallon. But there’s one category of goods that’s perhaps even more alarming: food.
The following table includes food inflation over the past three years, as the percent change over the past 12 months.
Date | CPI Food Component (%) |
---|---|
2018-02-01 | 1.4% |
2019-05-01 | 2.0% |
2019-06-01 | 1.9% |
2019-07-01 | 1.8% |
2019-08-01 | 1.7% |
2019-09-01 | 1.8% |
2019-10-01 | 2.1% |
2019-11-01 | 2.0% |
2019-12-01 | 1.8% |
2020-01-01 | 1.8% |
2020-02-01 | 1.8% |
2020-03-01 | 1.9% |
2020-04-01 | 3.5% |
2020-05-01 | 4.0% |
2020-06-01 | 4.5% |
2020-07-01 | 4.1% |
2020-08-01 | 4.1% |
2020-09-01 | 4.0% |
2020-10-01 | 3.9% |
2020-11-01 | 3.7% |
2020-12-01 | 3.9% |
2021-01-01 | 3.8% |
2021-02-01 | 3.6% |
2021-03-01 | 3.5% |
2021-04-01 | 2.4% |
2021-05-01 | 2.1% |
2021-06-01 | 2.4% |
2021-07-01 | 3.4% |
2021-08-01 | 3.7% |
2021-09-01 | 4.6% |
2021-10-01 | 5.3% |
2021-11-01 | 6.1% |
2021-12-01 | 6.3% |
2022-01-01 | 7.0% |
2022-02-01 | 7.9% |
2022-03-01 | 8.8% |
2022-04-01 | 9.4% |
2022-05-01 | 10.1% |
From this data, we can see that food inflation really picked up speed in April 2020, jumping to +3.5% from +1.9% in the previous month. This was due to supply chain disruptions and a sudden rebound in global demand.
Fast forward to today, and food inflation is running rampant at 10.1%. A contributing factor is the impending fertilizer shortage, which stems from the Ukraine war. As it turns out, Russia is not only a massive exporter of oil, but wheat and fertilizer as well.
Markets
The Fastest Rising U.S. Housing Markets in 2024
As U.S. home prices hit record highs, which housing market is seen the fastest growth? This graphic shows the top 10 across the country.
The Fastest Rising U.S. Housing Markets in 2024
This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
The U.S. housing market has been on a tear, with median sales prices rising more than 40% since February 2020.
While cities in southern states like Florida have witnessed some of the strongest price growth, more affordable cities across the Midwest are also seeing growing demand as buyers seek out cheaper options.
This graphic shows the U.S. metros with the fastest price growth, based on data from Redfin.
Hottest Housing Markets in America
Below, we rank the metropolitan areas with the fastest annual median sales price growth as of February 2024:
Rank | Metro | Median Sales Price Growth Feb 2024 YoY |
---|---|---|
1 | Pittsburgh, PA | +22.0% |
2 | Fort Lauderdale, FL | +18.0% |
3 | Greensboro, NC | +17.8% |
4 | Meridian, ID | +17.3% |
5 | Toledo, OH | +17.0% |
6 | Boca Raton, FL | +16.4% |
7 | West Palm Beach, FL | +16.1% |
8 | Orlando, FL | +15.9% |
9 | Milwaukee, WI | +15.6% |
10 | Alexandria, VA | +15.4% |
U.S. average | +6.5% |
Pittsburgh, PA soars to the top of the list, with median sale prices jumping 22% over the year.
Once known as a center for steel and iron manufacturing, the city has emerged as a hub for high-tech industries including robotics, software engineering, and healthcare. At a time when housing affordability is near record lows, buyers have flocked to the market thanks to its lower home prices. In February, median sales prices in Pittsburgh were $250,000 compared to the U.S. median price of $412,219.
Following next in line is Fort Lauderdale, FL with prices jumping 18% annually. Like several cities across the state, property values have boomed thanks to the state’s warm climate and low taxes. The state also ranks as one of the best in the country to retire. In 2023, it was one of the fastest growing states in the country, adding 365,205 residents overall.
As we can see, just one housing market in the West, Meridian, ID, is experiencing some of the strongest price growth in the country. Since the pandemic, many Californians priced out of expensive real estate markets have moved to the state due to its strong job market, low crime rate, and affordability. In fact, Los Angeles and San Francisco are some of the top metropolitan areas nationally that people are moving away from due to remote-work trends and the high cost of living.
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