Facebook’s Volatile Year in One Giant Chart
View the high resolution version of today’s graphic by clicking here.
Facebook has found itself in the headlines a lot in 2018, but not for reasons investors are likely to be excited about.
The tech giant battled privacy scandals, policy changes, and dwindling user engagement throughout the year, and in July the company made history with an overnight drop of $119 billion in market capitalization – the single largest drop in U.S. history.
We did today’s chart in conjunction with Extraordinary Future 2018, a tech conference featuring Cambridge Analytica whistleblower Christopher Wylie as a speaker on Sep 19-20 in Vancouver, BC, to show Facebook’s volatile year in perspective.
Here is a recap of some of the more major events that prompted volatility so far in 2018:
Zuckerberg Sells Shares
Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg drew attention in September 2017 when he announced plans to systematically sell off up to $12 billion in stock – nearly 50% of his personal stake.
It’s all part of a plan to transfer the bulk of his stake to the Chan-Zuckerberg Initiative. Zuckerberg and his wife Priscilla Chan founded the philanthropic company at the end of 2015 with the stated focus of “personalized learning, curing disease, connecting people and building strong communities.”
Zuckerberg started unloading stock with an initial sale of 1.14 million shares in February 2018 – the biggest insider sale of shares of any public company in the preceding three months. While analysts didn’t see any red flags for the sale at the time, the volume came when the share price needed all the stability it could get.
Facebook’s Privacy Scandal
On March 16, The Guardian and The New York Times published joint exposés reporting that 50 million Facebook user profiles were harvested by Cambridge Analytica without user knowledge. Later estimates pegged that number at closer to 87 million profiles.
Facebook soon found itself the focus of an investigation from the Federal Trade Commission, and published full-page ads in British and American newspapers to apologize for a “breach of trust”. As Facebook scrambled to regain user trust, share values dropped by 17.8% over the 10 days after the scandal broke.
In April, Zuckerberg appeared before Senate to answer tough questions about Facebook’s privacy policies. The CEO’s testimony restored some faith in the stock, and it gained some traction over the next three months, but the damage was already done.
Facebook’s History-Making Stock Drop
Facebook posted disappointing Q2 results on July 24, attributing their sluggish quarter to dropping user numbers and continued privacy challenges driven by General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) deadlines.
The report triggered an overnight stock drop of 19% – the single biggest one-day value loss ($119 billion) in U.S. stock market history.
As a result of the rout, Zuckerberg’s personal fortune dropped by nearly $16 billion, an amount that exceeds the total market cap of companies like Dropbox or Snapchat.
Where to from here?
Is this the end for Facebook? The halo may have slipped from the social media golden child, but the company may not be in danger quite yet.
The company’s namesake social network is not the only sandbox it plays in, and the company’s diversity is just the thing that might keep Facebook afloat amidst changing social media sentiment.
Facebook’s purchases of Instagram and WhatsApp are paying off, as those platforms continue to grow steadily. Meanwhile, the investment in Oculus Go could be a game-changer for VR, bringing standalone virtual reality systems to the home market. Finally, Facebook is leveraging its main social network as a place to fine tune algorithms and pave the way for new developments in artificial intelligence and machine learning.
Despite Facebook’s challenges in the realm of social media this year, its expansion into other emerging technologies might help the company secure its future.
How China Overtook the U.S. as the World’s Major Trading Partner
China has become the world’s major trading partner – and now, 128 of 190 countries trade more with China than they do with the United States.
How China Overtook the U.S. As the World’s Trade Partner
In 2018, trade accounted for 59% of global GDP, up nearly 1.5 times since 1980.
Over this timeframe, international trade has transformed significantly—not just in terms of volume and composition, but also in terms of the countries that the rest of the world leans on for their most important trade relationships.
Now, a critical shift is occurring in the landscape, and it may surprise you to learn that China has already usurped the U.S. as the world’s most dominant trading partner.
Trading Places: A Global Shift
Today’s animation comes from the Lowy Institute, and it pulls data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) database on bilateral trade flows, to determine whether the U.S. or China is a bigger trading partner for each country from 1980 to 2018.
The results are stark: before 2000, the U.S. was at the helm of global trade, as over 80% of countries traded with the U.S. more than they did with China. By 2018, that number had dropped sharply to just 30%, as China swiftly took top position in 128 of 190 countries.
The researchers pinpoint China’s 2001 entry into the World Trade Organization as a major turning point in China’s international trade relationships. The dramatic shift that followed is clearly demonstrated in the visualization above—between 2005 and 2010, a number of countries tipped towards Chinese influence, especially in Africa and Asia.
Over time, China’s dominance has grown dramatically. It’s no wonder then, that China and the U.S. have a contentious trade relationship themselves, as both nations battle it out for first place.
A Tale of Two Economies
The United States and China are competitors in many ways, but to be successful they must rely on each other for mutually beneficial trade. However, it’s also the major issue on which they are struggling to reach a common ground.
The U.S. has been vocal about negotiating more balanced trade agreements with China. In fact, a mid-2018 poll shows that 62% of Americans consider their trade relationship with China to be unfair.
Since 2018, both parties have faced a fraught relationship, imposing major tariffs on consumer and industrial goods—and retaliations are reaching greater and greater heights:
While a delicate truce has been reached at the moment, the trade war has caused a significant drag on global growth, and the World Bank estimates it will continue to have an effect into 2021.
At the same time, China’s sphere of influence continues to grow.
One Belt, One Road, One Trade Direction?
China seems to have a finger in every pie. The nation is financing a flurry of megaprojects across Asia and Africa—but one broader initiative stands above the rest.
China’s “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) Initiative, planned for a 2049 completion, is advancing at a furious pace. In 2019 alone, Chinese companies signed contracts worth up to $128 billion to start Chinese large-scale infrastructure projects in various countries.
While building new highways and ports abroad is beneficial for Chinese financiers, OBOR is also about creating new markets and trade routes for Chinese goods in Asia. Recent research found that the OBOR program’s infrastructure expansion and logistics performance improvements led to positive effects on China’s exports.
Nevertheless, it’s clear the new infrastructure network is already transforming global trade, possibly cementing China’s position as the world’s major trading partner for years to come.
Visualizing the Expanse of the ETF Universe
The global ETF universe has grown to be worth $5.75 trillion — here’s how the assets break down by type, sector, and investment focus.
Visualizing the Expanse of the ETF Universe
View the high resolution version of this infographic by clicking here.
Under the right circumstances, an innovation can scale and flourish.
Within the financial realm, there is perhaps no better example of this than the introduction of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), a new financial technology that emerged out of the index investing phenomenon of the early 1990s.
Since the establishment of the first U.S. ETF in 1993, the financial instrument has gained broad traction — and today, the ETF universe has an astonishing $5.75 trillion in assets under management (AUM), covering almost every niche imaginable.
Navigating the ETF Universe
Today’s data visualization comes to us from iShares by BlackRock, and it visualizes the wide scope of assets covered by the ETF universe.
To start, let’s look at a macro breakdown of the “galaxies” that can be found in the universe:
|Global ETFs (AUM, $USD)||Share of Global Total|
|All ETFs||$5.75 trillion||100.00%|
|Money market||$0.04 trillion||0.6%|
As you can see, equities are by far the largest galaxy in the ETF universe, making up 76.4% of all assets. These clusters likely comprise the ETFs you are most familiar with — for example, funds that track the S&P 500 index or foreign markets.
That said, it’s worth noting that the fastest expanding galaxy is bond ETFs, tracking indices related to the debt issued by governments and corporations. The first bond ETFs were introduced in 2002, and since then the category has grown into a market that exceeds $1 trillion in AUM. Bond ETFs are expected to surpass the $2 trillion mark by 2024.
Everything Under the Sun
While the sheer scale of the ETF universe is captivating, it’s the variety that shows you how ubiquitous the instrument has become.
Today, there are over 8,000 ETFs globally, covering nearly every asset class imaginable. Here are some of the lesser-known and more peculiar corners in the ETF universe:
Thematic ETFs: Gaining popularity in recent years, thematic ETFs are built around long-term trends such as climate change or rapid urbanization. By having more tangible focus points, these funds can also appeal to younger generations of investors.
Contrarian ETFs: In a healthy market, there can be a variety of different positions being taken by investors. Contrarian ETFs help to make this possible, allowing investors to bet against the “herd”.
Factor-based ETFs: This approach uses a rules-based system for selecting investments in the fund portfolio, based on factors typically associated with higher returns such as value, small-caps, momentum, low volatility, quality, or yield.
Global Macro ETFs: Some ETFs are designed to mimic strategies used by hedge fund managers. One example of such a strategy is global macro, which aims to analyze the macroeconomic environment, while taking corresponding long and short positions in various equity, fixed income, currency, commodities, and futures markets.
Commodity ETFs: There are ETFs that track gold or oil, sometimes even storing physical inventories. Interestingly, however, there are commodity ETFs for even more obscure metals and agricultural products, such as zinc, lean hogs, tin, or cocoa beans.
Whether your investments track popular market indices or you are more surgical about your portfolio exposure, the ETF universe is impressively vast — and it’s projected to keep expanding in size and diversity for years to come.
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