Experts are Hilariously Bad at Forecasting Solar Installations
For the latest data on the world’s energy markets, organizations such as the IEA (International Energy Agency) and the EIA (Energy Information Administration) are crucial sources. Every year, investors and entire industries rely on their reporting on energy supply and demand, as well as their forecasts going forward.
However, these organizations tend to be better at some things than others. For example, in terms of summing up past and current data on what is going on in the world, they generally do a pretty good job. We referenced their numbers when we looked at the changing anatomy of U.S. oil imports, or when showing the decline in coal use over recent years.
In other situations, such as trying to extrapolate numbers on current trends or predicting the tipping point of technologies, things get a bit dicier. Forecasting the roll-out of solar, in particular, has proved to be a daunting challenge for these organizations over the years.
Global Solar Installations
Before we dive in, we should make one thing clear: it’s notoriously difficult to make these types of predictions, and we do not envy the position of these researchers in any sense.
That being said, as shown in this chart from Auke Hoekstra, forecasts for annual global solar installations by the IEA have been egregiously bad for over a decade.
Forecasts from the IEA are pulled from their World Energy Outlook (WEO) reports, which are published each year. Meanwhile, the “PV History” line above is the actual data for photovoltaic (PV) installations each year.
Again, it’s extremely difficult to make such forecasts, and these organizations tend to be conservative with their outlooks. However, it’s pretty evident that they’ve missed a pretty significant trend here.
U.S. Solar Installations
Maybe the U.S. government can do better?
Here’s a look at forecasts by the EIA for annual energy production from solar in the U.S. over many decades, courtesy of Steffen Christensen:
This one’s more interesting. Instead of counting out solar each and every year, the EIA has had changing attitudes towards solar over time.
The projection from 1979 seems to actually be the most accurate – but the ones from 1994-2011 skip any premise of a solar boom entirely. As we get closer to present day, forecasts get more accurate, but are still too conservative (2013, 2015).
Hindsight is 20/20
It’s easy for us to be armchair critics, but it is not fair to rag on these organizations too much.
Here’s the trend they missed that made all the difference:
Curious to see how other people have fared in making predictions on technology throughout history?
Here’s a timeline of failed tech predictions that will humble any forecaster.
The Carbon Emissions of Gold Mining
Gold has a long history as a precious metal, but just how many carbon emissions does mining it contribute to?
The Carbon Emissions of Gold Mining
As companies progress towards net-zero goals, decarbonizing all sectors, including mining, has become a vital need.
Gold has a long history as a valuable metal due to its rarity, durability, and universal acceptance as a store of value. However, traditional gold mining is a process that is taxing on the environment and a major contributor to the increasing carbon emissions in our atmosphere.
The above infographic from our sponsor Nature’s Vault provides an overview of the global carbon footprint of gold mining.
The Price of Gold
To understand more about the carbon emissions that gold mining contributes to, we need to understand the different scopes that all emissions fall under.
In the mining industry, these are divided into three scopes.
- Scope 1: These include direct emissions from operations.
- Scope 2: These are indirect emissions from power generation.
- Scope 3: These cover all other indirect emissions.
With this in mind, let’s break down annual emissions in CO2e tonnes using data from the World Gold Council as of 2019. Note that total emissions are rounded to the nearest 1,000.
|1||Mining, milling, concentrating and smelting||45,490,000|
|3||Suppliers, goods, and services||25,118,000|
Total annual emissions reach around 126,359,000 CO2e tonnes. To put this in perspective, that means that one year’s worth of gold mining is equivalent to burning nearly 300 million barrels of oil.
Gold in Nature’s Vault
A significant portion of gold’s downstream use is either for private investment or placed in banks. In other words, a large amount of gold is mined, milled, smelted, and transported only to be locked away again in a vault.
Nature’s Vault is decarbonizing the gold mining sector for both gold and impact investors by eliminating the most emission-intensive part of the mining process—mining itself.
By creating digital assets like the NaturesGold Token and the Pistol Lake NFT that monetize the preservation of gold in the ground, emissions and the environmental damage associated with gold mining are avoided.
How Does it Work?
Through the same forms of validation used in traditional mining by Canada’s National Instrument NI 43-101 and Australia’s Joint Ore Reserve Committee (JORC), Nature’s Vault first determines that there is gold in an ore body.
Then, using blockchain and asset fractionalization, the mineral rights and quantified in-ground gold associated with these mineral rights are tokenized.
This way, gold for investment can still be used without the emission-intensive process that goes into mining it. Therefore, these digital assets are an environmentally-friendly alternative to traditional gold investments.
Click here to learn more about gold in Nature’s Vault.
You may also like
Green2 months ago
Mapped: Air Pollution Levels Around the World in 2022
Exploring 2022 average air pollution levels around the world by PM2.5 concentration.
Environment2 months ago
Visualizing the Flow of Energy-Related CO2 Emissions in the U.S.
A look at the flow of energy-related CO2 emissions from the sources that generate energy to the sectors that use it.
Green3 months ago
Chart: Automakers’ Adoption of Fuel-Saving Technologies
See how 14 major automakers have adopted various fuel-saving technologies in this infographic based on EPA data.
Environment3 months ago
Explainer: What to Know About the Ohio Train Derailment
A train transporting a number of potentially dangerous chemicals derailed near the Ohio–Pennsylvania border. This infographic explains what happened
Technology4 months ago
Infographic: 11 Tech Trends to Watch in 2023
This infographic highlights eleven exciting areas within the world of technology worth keeping an eye on in 2023.
Energy5 months ago
A Visual Crash Course on Geothermal Energy
This infographic teaches you everything you need to know about geothermal energy in less than 5 minutes.
Central Banks3 weeks ago
Comparing the Speed of Interest Rate Hikes (1988-2023)
Demographics2 weeks ago
Ranked: The Cities with the Most Skyscrapers in 2023
Africa3 weeks ago
Map Explainer: Sudan
Urbanization1 week ago
Ranked: The World’s Biggest Steel Producers, by Country
Travel3 weeks ago
Visualized: The World’s Busiest Airports, by Passenger Count
Visual Capitalist5 days ago
Join Us For Data Creator Con 2023
AI3 weeks ago
Visualizing Global Attitudes Towards AI
Central Banks5 days ago
Charted: Public Trust in the Federal Reserve