United States

Charts: The Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the U.S. So Far

Published

3 years ago

July 31, 2020

Nick Routley

Charts: The Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the U.S. So Far

In the second quarter of 2020, the U.S. recorded its steepest drop in economic output on record.

As COVID-19 continues to spread around the country leaving economic upheaval in its wake, many economic indicators are trending in undesirable ways. The graphic above is a snapshot of the overall health of the economy at this pivotal moment in time.

The Big Picture

To put this quarter’s 9.5% drop into perspective, it helps to look back in history. Since record keeping began in 1947, quarterly GDP had never exceeded even a 3% drop (non-annualized). Here are just a few of the problems currently plaguing the economy:

Employment: Well over 50 million people are still out of the workforce as businesses shutter permanently and restrictions continue in many parts of the country. New unemployment claims have now exceeded 1 million for 19 consecutive weeks.

Consumer Spending: This makes up more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy, and it sank by the sharpest rate in April—declining by 12.6%. The weekly payments of $600 provided through the CARES Act helped bolster household income, partially offsetting steeper losses. However, the payments expired July 31, and may not be renewed as an initiative.

Monetary Policy: Trillions of dollars have been borrowed to counter the crisis, money supply (M2) has rapidly risen, and central bank balance sheets are shattering records. Despite the injection of money into the system, inflation has dropped to almost zero–well below the Fed’s ideal 2% rate–signalling deflationary pressure on the economy.

Bright Spots

Despite the significant challenges facing the American economy, there are some areas that are showing signs of recovery.

S&P 500: The flagship index is the most prominent positive, recording its best quarter in over two decades. Reaching a high-water mark in June, the index shot up over 25% over the second quarter. Federal stimulus packages stoked optimism in the markets, with the Fed at one point purchasing $41 billion in financial assets daily.

Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI): Widely seen as a leading business indicator, the PMI is also rebounding. Manufacturing output stabilized as production facilities slowly reopened. As a result, an expansionary manufacturing cycle is anticipated to begin.

covid-19 pmi rebound

Big Tech: Business is booming for Big Tech in the latest quarter. Amazon’s earnings doubled compared to last year, while both Facebook and Apple witnessed double-digit earnings jumps. The shift to remote work has figured prominently in this rise.

What’s Next?

Bright spots aside, COVID-19 is set to become America’s third most common cause of death (after accidents). With an infection curve that remains stubbornly unflattened, it isn’t just the public that’s at risk–the economy may find itself on life support as well.

Related Topics:covid-19 economy gdp report us economy

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United States

Charted: Public Trust in the Federal Reserve

Public trust in the Federal Reserve chair has hit its lowest point in 20 years. Get the details in this infographic.

Published

6 days ago

May 23, 2023

Marcus Lu

The Briefing

Gallup conducts an annual poll to gauge the U.S. public’s trust in the Federal Reserve
After rising during the COVID-19 pandemic, public trust has fallen to a 20-year low

Charted: Public Trust in the Federal Reserve

Each year, Gallup conducts a survey of American adults on various economic topics, including the country’s central bank, the Federal Reserve.

More specifically, respondents are asked how much confidence they have in the current Fed chairman to do or recommend the right thing for the U.S. economy. We’ve visualized these results from 2001 to 2023 to see how confidence levels have changed over time.

Methodology and Results

The data used in this infographic is also listed in the table below. Percentages reflect the share of respondents that have either a “great deal” or “fair amount” of confidence.

Year	Fed chair	% Great deal or Fair amount
2023	Jerome Powell	36%
2022	Jerome Powell	43%
2021	Jerome Powell	55%
2020	Jerome Powell	58%
2019	Jerome Powell	50%
2018	Jerome Powell	45%
2017	Janet Yellen	45%
2016	Janet Yellen	38%
2015	Janet Yellen	42%
2014	Janet Yellen	37%
2013	Ben Bernanke	42%
2012	Ben Bernanke	39%
2011	Ben Bernanke	41%
2010	Ben Bernanke	44%
2009	Ben Bernanke	49%
2008	Ben Bernanke	47%
2007	Ben Bernanke	50%
2006	Ben Bernanke	41%
2005	Alan Greenspan	56%
2004	Alan Greenspan	61%
2003	Alan Greenspan	65%
2002	Alan Greenspan	69%
2001	Alan Greenspan	74%

Data for 2023 collected April 3-25, with this statement put to respondents: “Please tell me how much confidence you have [in the Fed chair] to recommend the right thing for the economy.”

We can see that trust in the Federal Reserve has fluctuated significantly in recent years.

For example, under Alan Greenspan, trust was initially high due to the relative stability of the economy. The burst of the dotcom bubble—which some attribute to Greenspan’s easy credit policies—resulted in a sharp decline.

On the flip side, public confidence spiked during the COVID-19 pandemic. This was likely due to Jerome Powell’s decisive actions to provide support to the U.S. economy throughout the crisis.

Measures implemented by the Fed include bringing interest rates to near zero, quantitative easing (buying government bonds with newly-printed money), and emergency lending programs to businesses.

Confidence Now on the Decline

After peaking at 58%, those with a “great deal” or “fair amount” of trust in the Fed chair have tumbled to 36%, the lowest number in 20 years.

This is likely due to Powell’s hard stance on fighting post-pandemic inflation, which has involved raising interest rates at an incredible speed. While these rate hikes may be necessary, they also have many adverse effects:

Negative impact on the stock market
Increases the burden for those with variable-rate debts
Makes mortgages and home buying less affordable

Higher rates have also prompted many U.S. tech companies to shrink their workforces, and have been a factor in the regional banking crisis, including the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.

Where does this data come from?

Source: Gallup (2023)

Data Notes: Results are based on telephone interviews conducted April 3-25, 2023, with a random sample of –1,013—adults, ages 18+, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on this sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. See source for details.