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Visualizing (and Understanding) an Inverted Yield Curve

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Visualizing (and Understanding) an Inverted Yield Curve

For a few months in 2019, the yield curve inverted and warned of a potential recession.

Towards the end of 2021, it happened again. And throughout 2022, the inverted yield curve has looked more and more extreme. So what does an inverted yield curve look like, and what does it signal about an economy?

The above visualization from James Eagle shows the yield curve from November 2021-2022 using eurodollar futures yields—which serve as an indicator for the direction of the yield curve.

What Denotes an Inverted Yield Curve?

Generally speaking, the yield curve is a line chart that plots interest rates for bonds that have equal credit quality, but different maturity dates.

In normal economic conditions, investors are rewarded with higher interest rates for holding bonds over longer time periods, resulting in an upward sloping yield curve. This is because these longer returns factor in the risk of inflation or default over time.

So when interest rates on long-term bonds fall lower than those of short-term bonds, it results in an inverted yield curve.

The worrying trend is that an inverted yield curve in key government securities such as U.S. Treasuries can often foreshadow a recession. For every recession since 1960, an inverted yield curve took place roughly a year before, with just one exception in the mid-1960s.

This is because the yield curve has steep implications for financial markets. If the market predicts economic turbulence, and that interest rates will fall in the long term, investors flock to buy longer-dated bonds.

Eurodollars: A Hedging Tool

Let’s now look at eurodollar futures, as seen in the above visual.

Eurodollars are not to be confused with euros, the currency in the European Union. Instead, they are U.S. dollars held in term deposits outside of the United States. Originally it applied to accounts specifically in Europe, hence the “euro” prefix.

The video above charts eurodollar futures, which allow banks and companies to secure interest rates today for USD funds they plan to lend or borrow at a future date. In short, the yields on these futures can tell us how banks and companies around the world feel about interest rates—and economic strength.

How The Yield Curve’s Inversion Has Gotten More Extreme

The animation above clearly shows how the yield curve hasn’t just inverted, it has become more severe:

DateYield CurveExample Eurodollar Futures Yield
Jan-Feb 2022Upward SlopingMar 2023: 1.3%
Mar 2024: 2.0%
Mar-Aug 2022FlatMar 2023: 2.5%
Mar 2024: 2.5%
Sep-Nov 2022Downward SlopingMar 2023: 5.0%
Mar 2024: 4.0%

As the above examples show, yields on March 2023 eurodollar futures contracts have continued to rise over the course of the year—from 1.3% to 5.0% by November.

Meanwhile, March 2024 eurodollar futures yields over the same time period began higher than their 2023 counterparts but eventually became eclipsed.

And more immediately, December 2022 eurodollar futures yields in November were much higher than 2024 yields. Not only does this indicate investor pessimism, it suggests that the market expects interest rates to fall by 2024 and for inflation to decline.

The Flip Side

On the other hand, market expectations of looser monetary policy in the future could miss the mark.

“I suspect the market is getting a little ahead of itself in terms of pricing in cuts… Central banks have still been talking about holding rates at higher levels for longer.”

– Andrew Ticehurst, rates strategist for Nomura Inc.

As 2023 unfolds, investors will be watching closely to see if the inverted yield curve indeed serves as a recession harbinger, and the wider consequences of this potential outcome.

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This article was published as a part of Visual Capitalist's Creator Program, which features data-driven visuals from some of our favorite Creators around the world.

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Swiss Watches: Market Share by Brand in 2023

In this graphic we rank the top Swiss watch brands, based on their estimated 2023 market share.

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Graphic ranking the top Swiss watch brands based on their estimated 2023 market share.

Swiss Watches: Market Share by Brand in 2023

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

Swiss watches are renowned for their precision, craftsmanship, and quality. In this visualization, we rank the top Swiss watch brands based on their estimated 2023 market share, which comes from data provided by LuxeConsult and Morgan Stanley.

Rolex Dominates the Swiss Watch Market

Sales of Rolex watches are believed to have surpassed 10 billion Swiss francs ($11.2 billion) for the first time in 2023, significantly outpacing rivals like Cartier CHF 3.1 billion ($3.5 billion) and Omega CHF 2.6 billion ($2.9 billion).

Additionally, Rolex has strengthened its dominant position in the market, capturing a remarkable 30.3% retail market share.

BrandMarket Share (%)
Rolex30.3
Cartier7.5
Omega7.5
Patek Philippe5.6
Audemars Piguet4.9
Longines3.4
Richard Mille3.1
Vacheron Constantin2.7
Tissot2.5
Breitling2.4
IWC1.9
Hublot1.9
Jaeger-LeCoultre1.7
TAG Heur1.7
Other22.9

In 2023, the Swiss watch industry achieved record sales totaling CHF 26.7 billion ($30 billion). The “Big Four” watch brands—Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, and Richard Mille—achieved a combined 43.9% market share last year, compared to a pre-Covid 2019 market share of 36.9%.

Also noteworthy is that Vacheron Constantin joined the billionaires’ club as the 8th brand to surpass CHF 1 billion in sales, reaching CHF 1.097 billion ($1.23 billion).

In conclusion, premium watches priced over CHF 25,000 ($28,000) drove 69% of the market’s growth in 2023, and constituted 44% of the total value of Swiss watch exports. Despite this significant value contribution, this segment represents only 2.5% of the total volume in terms of units sold.

See Related Infographics

If you enjoyed this content, check out The World’s Biggest Fashion Companies by Market Cap, or Ranked: Gen Z’s Favorite Brands in 2023.

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