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Visualizing (and Understanding) an Inverted Yield Curve

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Visualizing (and Understanding) an Inverted Yield Curve

For a few months in 2019, the yield curve inverted and warned of a potential recession.

Towards the end of 2021, it happened again. And throughout 2022, the inverted yield curve has looked more and more extreme. So what does an inverted yield curve look like, and what does it signal about an economy?

The above visualization from James Eagle shows the yield curve from November 2021-2022 using eurodollar futures yields—which serve as an indicator for the direction of the yield curve.

What Denotes an Inverted Yield Curve?

Generally speaking, the yield curve is a line chart that plots interest rates for bonds that have equal credit quality, but different maturity dates.

In normal economic conditions, investors are rewarded with higher interest rates for holding bonds over longer time periods, resulting in an upward sloping yield curve. This is because these longer returns factor in the risk of inflation or default over time.

So when interest rates on long-term bonds fall lower than those of short-term bonds, it results in an inverted yield curve.

The worrying trend is that an inverted yield curve in key government securities such as U.S. Treasuries can often foreshadow a recession. For every recession since 1960, an inverted yield curve took place roughly a year before, with just one exception in the mid-1960s.

This is because the yield curve has steep implications for financial markets. If the market predicts economic turbulence, and that interest rates will fall in the long term, investors flock to buy longer-dated bonds.

Eurodollars: A Hedging Tool

Let’s now look at eurodollar futures, as seen in the above visual.

Eurodollars are not to be confused with euros, the currency in the European Union. Instead, they are U.S. dollars held in term deposits outside of the United States. Originally it applied to accounts specifically in Europe, hence the “euro” prefix.

The video above charts eurodollar futures, which allow banks and companies to secure interest rates today for USD funds they plan to lend or borrow at a future date. In short, the yields on these futures can tell us how banks and companies around the world feel about interest rates—and economic strength.

How The Yield Curve’s Inversion Has Gotten More Extreme

The animation above clearly shows how the yield curve hasn’t just inverted, it has become more severe:

DateYield CurveExample Eurodollar Futures Yield
Jan-Feb 2022Upward SlopingMar 2023: 1.3%
Mar 2024: 2.0%
Mar-Aug 2022FlatMar 2023: 2.5%
Mar 2024: 2.5%
Sep-Nov 2022Downward SlopingMar 2023: 5.0%
Mar 2024: 4.0%

As the above examples show, yields on March 2023 eurodollar futures contracts have continued to rise over the course of the year—from 1.3% to 5.0% by November.

Meanwhile, March 2024 eurodollar futures yields over the same time period began higher than their 2023 counterparts but eventually became eclipsed.

And more immediately, December 2022 eurodollar futures yields in November were much higher than 2024 yields. Not only does this indicate investor pessimism, it suggests that the market expects interest rates to fall by 2024 and for inflation to decline.

The Flip Side

On the other hand, market expectations of looser monetary policy in the future could miss the mark.

“I suspect the market is getting a little ahead of itself in terms of pricing in cuts… Central banks have still been talking about holding rates at higher levels for longer.”

– Andrew Ticehurst, rates strategist for Nomura Inc.

As 2023 unfolds, investors will be watching closely to see if the inverted yield curve indeed serves as a recession harbinger, and the wider consequences of this potential outcome.

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This article was published as a part of Visual Capitalist's Creator Program, which features data-driven visuals from some of our favorite Creators around the world.

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Markets

Visualizing Berkshire Hathaway’s Stock Portfolio (Q1 2024)

We visualized the latest data on Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio to see what Warren Buffett is invested in.

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Visualizing Berkshire Hathaway’s Portfolio as of Q1 2024

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

Wondering what the Oracle of Omaha has his money invested in?

In this graphic, we illustrate Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio holdings, as of Q1 2024. This data was released on May 15, 2024, and can be easily accessed via CNBC’s Berkshire Hathaway Portfolio Tracker.

The value of each position listed in this graphic is based on market prices as of May 23, 2024, and will change over time.

Furthermore, note that Berkshire has received SEC permission to temporarily withhold data on certain positions. This includes all of its Japanese stocks, which are reported as of June 12, 2023.

It’s (almost) all Apple

The data we used to create this graphic can be found in the following table. Positions worth less than $5 billion were included in “Other”.

Company% of PortfolioValue
(As of 05-23-2024)
🇺🇸 Apple Inc39.7$149.8B
🇺🇸 Bank of America10.7$40.6B
🇺🇸 American Express9.7$36.8B
🇺🇸 Coca-Cola6.7$25.2B
🇺🇸 Chevron5.3$20.0B
🇺🇸 Occidental Petroleum4.2$15.7B
🇺🇸 Kraft Heinz3.1$11.7B
🇺🇸 Moody’s2.7$10.2B
🇯🇵 Mitsubishi Corp2.1$7.8B
🇺🇸 Chubb1.9$7.1B
🇯🇵 Mitsui & Co1.7$6.4B
🇯🇵 Itochu Corporation1.5$5.5B
🇺🇸 DaVita1.3$5.0B
🌍 Other9.4$35.9B
Total100$377.9B

From this, we can see that Berkshire’s largest position is Apple, which makes up almost 40% of the portfolio and is worth nearly $150 billion.

While Warren Buffett once referred to Apple as the best business in the world, his firm actually trimmed its position by 13% in Q1 2024.

Even after that cut, Berkshire still maintains a 5.1% ownership stake in Apple.

Why Japanese Stocks?

While most of Berkshire’s major positions are in American companies, Japanese firms make up a significant chunk.

In 2020, Berkshire took positions in five Japanese trading houses: Itochu, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Mitsui, and Sumitomo.

Also known as sōgō shōsha, which translates to “general trading company”, these firms are highly diversified across major industries.

According to an article from IMD, Buffett sees an attractive opportunity in Japan due to the country’s low-interest rates, among other things.

Learn More About Investing From Visual Capitalist

If you enjoyed this graphic, be sure to check out Visualizing the Growth of $100, by Asset Class (1970-2023).

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