Connect with us

Finance

Timeline: 150 Years of U.S. National Debt

Published

on

This interactive visualization uses debt held by the public for its calculations, which excludes intragovernmental holdings.

Looking Back at 150 Years of U.S. Debt

The total U.S. national debt reached an all-time high of $28 trillion* in March 2021, the largest amount ever recorded.

Recent increases to the debt have been fueled by massive fiscal stimulus bills like the CARES Act ($2.2 trillion in March 2020), the Consolidated Appropriations Act ($2.3 trillion in December 2020), and most recently, the American Rescue Plan ($1.9 trillion in March 2021).

To see how America’s debt has gotten to its current point, we’ve created an interactive timeline using data from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). It’s crucial to note that the data set uses U.S. national debt held by the public, which excludes intergovernmental holdings.

*Editor’s note: This top level figure includes intragovernmental holdings, or the roughly $6 trillion of debt owed within the government to itself.

What Influences U.S. Debt?

It’s worth pointing out that the national debt hasn’t always been this large.

Looking back 150 years, we can see that its size relative to GDP has fluctuated greatly, hitting multiple peaks and troughs. These movements generally correspond with events such as wars and recessions.

Decade Gross debt at start
of decade
(USD billions)
Avg. Debt Held By Public
Throughout Decade
(% of GDP)
Major Events
1900-4.8%-
1910-10.0%World War I
1920-22.9%The Great Depression
1930$1636.4%President Roosevelt's New Deal
1940$4075.1%World War II
1950$25756.8%Korean War
1960$28637.3%Vietnam War
1970$37126.1%Stagflation (inflation + high unemployment)
1980$90833.7%President Reagan's tax cuts
1990$3,23344.7%Gulf War
2000$5,67436.6%9/11 attacks & Global Financial Crisis
2010$13,56272.4%Debt ceiling is raised by Congress
2020$27,748105.6%COVID-19 pandemic
2030P-121.8%-
2040P-164.7%-
2050P-195.2%-

Source: CBO, The Balance

To gain further insight into the history of the U.S. national debt, let’s review some key economic events in America’s history.

The Great Depression

After its WWI victory, the U.S. enjoyed a period of post-war prosperity commonly referred to as the Roaring Twenties.

This led to the creation of a stock market bubble which would eventually burst in 1929, causing massive damage to the U.S. economy. The country’s GDP was cut in half (partially due to deflation), while the unemployment rate rose to 25%.

Government revenues dipped as a result, pushing debt held by the public as a % of GDP from its low of 15% in 1929, to a high of 44% in 1934.

World War II

WWII quickly brought the U.S. back to full employment, but it was an incredibly expensive endeavor. The total cost of the war is estimated to be over $4 trillion in today’s dollars.

To finance its efforts, the U.S. relied heavily on war bonds, a type of bond that is marketed to citizens during armed conflicts. These bonds were sold in various denominations ranging from $25-$10,000 and had a 2.9% interest rate compounded semiannually.

Over 85 million Americans purchased these bonds, helping the U.S. government to raise $186 billion (not adjusted for inflation). This pushed debt above 100% of GDP for the first time ever, but was also enough to cover 63% of the war’s total cost.

The Postwar Period

Following World War II, the U.S. experienced robust economic growth.

Despite involvement in the Korea and Vietnam wars, debt-to-GDP declined to a low of 23% in 1974—largely because these wars were financed by raising taxes rather than borrowing.

The economy eventually slowed in the early 1980s, prompting President Reagan to slash taxes on corporations and high earning individuals. Income taxes on the top bracket, for example, fell from 70% to 50%.

2008 Global Financial Crisis

The Global Financial Crisis served as a precursor for today’s debt landscape.

Interest rates were reduced to near-zero levels to speed up the economic recovery, enabling the government to borrow with relative ease. Rates remained at these suppressed levels from 2008 to 2015, and debt-to-GDP grew from 39% to 73%.

It’s important to note that even before 2008, the U.S. government had been consistently running annual budget deficits. This means that the government spends more than it earns each year through taxes.

The National Debt Today

The COVID-19 pandemic damaged many areas of the global economy, forcing governments to drastically increase their spending. At the same time, many central banks once again reduced interest rates to zero.

This has resulted in a growing snowball of government debt that shows little signs of shrinking, even though the worst of the pandemic is already behind us.

In the U.S., federal debt has reached or surpassed WWII levels. When excluding intragovernmental holdings, it now sits at 104% of GDP—and including those holdings, it sits at 128% of GDP. But while the debt is expected to grow even further, the cost of servicing this debt has actually decreased in recent years.

U.S. federal debt costs

This is because existing government bonds, which were originally issued at higher rates, are now maturing and being refinanced to take advantage of today’s lower borrowing costs.

The key takeaway from this is that the U.S. national debt will remain manageable for the foreseeable future. Longer term, however, interest expenses are expected to grow significantly—especially if interest rates begin to rise again.

green check mark icon

This article was published as a part of Visual Capitalist's Creator Program, which features data-driven visuals from some of our favorite Creators around the world.

Subscribe to Visual Capitalist
Click for Comments

Brands

Ranked: The World’s Most Valuable Bank Brands (2019-2023)

This infographic ranks the 10 most valuable bank brands over the past five years (Spoiler: U.S. banks aren’t in the top four)

Published

on

The World’s Most Valuable Bank Brands (2019-2023)

Since 2019, Chinese banks have held the top four spots on Brand Finance’s Banking 500—an annual ranking of the most valuable bank brands.

Brand value in this context is a measure of the “value of the trade mark and associated marketing IP within the branded business”. In other words, it measures the value of intangible marketing assets, and not the overall worth of the business itself.

In this infographic, we’ve visualized the Banking 500’s top 10 brands since 2019 to show you how the ranking has evolved (or stayed the same).

Top Bank Brands of 2023

The 10 most valuable bank brands of 2023 are evenly split between China and the United States. In terms of combined brand value, China leads with $262 billion to America’s $165 billion.

RankBankBrand Value (USD billions)
1🇨🇳 ICBC$69.5
2🇨🇳 China Construction Bank$62.7
3🇨🇳 Agricultural Bank of China$57.7
4🇨🇳 Bank of China$47.3
5🇺🇸 Bank of America$38.6
6🇺🇸 Wells Fargo$33.0
7🇺🇸 JP Morgan$31.8
8🇺🇸 Chase$31.3
9🇺🇸 Citi$30.6
10🇨🇳 China Merchants Bank$24.5

Chinese banks have a massive market to serve, which helps to lift the perceived value of their brands. For example, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) serves over 500 million individuals as well as several million business clients.

It’s worth noting that ICBC is the world’s largest bank in terms of assets under management ($5.5 trillion as of Dec 2021), and in terms of annual revenues ($143 billion as of Dec 2022). The bank was founded just 39 years ago in 1984.

After ICBC, the next three spots are occupied by the rest of China’s “big four” banks, all of which are state-owned.

The fifth to ninth spots on this ranking are occupied by an assortment of America’s largest banks. Despite a string of controversies in recent years, Wells Fargo rose from eighth in 2022 to sixth in 2023. This goes to show that large corporations can often recover from a scandal in a relatively short period of time (e.g. Volkswagen’s Dieselgate).

Coming in tenth is China Merchants Bank, which is China’s first “joint-stock commercial bank wholly owned by corporate legal entities”.

Top Asset Management Brands

Brand Finance’s 2023 ranking also includes a separate category for asset managers.

RankAsset ManagerBrand Value (USD billions)
1🇨🇦 Brookfield$9.0
2🇺🇸 Fidelity$8.4
3🇺🇸 BlackRock$6.6
4🇺🇸 Blackstone$4.9
5🇨🇳 Cinda International Holdings Limited$3.2
6🇺🇸 Vanguard$2.9
7🇺🇸 Union Investment$2.3
8🇺🇸 Franklin Templeton Investments$2.1
9🇺🇸 Ameriprise Financial$2.0
10🇺🇸 Invesco$1.5

Given America’s leadership in financial markets, it’s no surprise to see eight out of the 10 firms listed here as being based in the United States. The number one spot, however, is held by Canada’s Brookfield. The Canadian alternative asset manager is building a strong brand through its investments in renewable energy and other high-value infrastructure.

Continue Reading

Subscribe

Popular