Ranked: Old-Age Dependency of the Top 10 Economies
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Ranked: Old-Age Dependency of the Top 10 Economies

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See this visualization first on the Voronoi app.

Graphs of the old-age dependency ratios over time of the top 10 economies with data from the OECD.

Old-Age Dependency Ratios of the Top 10 Economies

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

The old-age dependency ratio measures the number of people over the retirement age of 65 for every 100 working-age people. The lower the ratio, the more people there are supporting retirees, which translates to less fiscal strain on government systems.

In charts by creator Preyash Shad, we look at old-age dependency ratios of the top 10 economies based on data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

Japan in Trouble

Japan has had a rapidly rising old-age dependency ratio for several decades and has the highest ratio currently at 54.5.

Country20232050F
🇯🇵 Japan54.580.7
🇮🇹 Italy40.974.4
🇩🇪 Germany41.458.1
🇫🇷 France38.454.5
🇨🇳 China20.047.5
🇬🇧 United Kingdom34.247.1
🇨🇦 Canada33.444.9
🇺🇸 United States31.340.4
🇧🇷 Brazil17.139.5
🇮🇳 India11.622.5

Source: OECD

Meanwhile, Germany is the runner-up in the top 10 economies with a distant second-place dependency ratio of 41.4.

At the same time, the United States maintains a relatively low old-age dependency, with a ratio of 31.3, which places it seventh among the top 10 economies.

India, now the world’s most populous country, has the lowest ratio of 11.6, in large part because it also has the youngest population.

Projections for 2050

By 2050, Japan will maintain the highest old-age dependency ratio of the group, moving from 54.5 to a staggering 80.7. In an effort to head-off such a high ratio, Japan is has put policies in pace to attract young immigrants and migrant workers and is making some progress.

Italy, which is facing similar demographic pressures, will move from distant third to a close second, moving from a ratio of 40.9 to 74.4.

China, because of the results of the one-child policy and low immigration, could surpass the U.S. by 2050 with a ratio of 47.5.

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This article was published as a part of Visual Capitalist's Creator Program, which features data-driven visuals from some of our favorite Creators around the world.

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Countries

Population Projections: The World’s Top Countries by 2100

How will the world’s population change by 2100? We explore UN projections for the top 8 countries, highlighting major demographic shifts.

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Population Projections: The World’s Top Countries by 2100

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

Key Takeaways

  • India’s population will peak sometime in the 2060s, while others will continue to grow steadily all the way to the end of the century.
  • China’s population is expected to drop off dramatically due to economic trends and the lasting effects of its one-child policy.

By the end of this century, global demographics could look dramatically different than they do today. While some countries will be growing, others will be in the midst of long-term declines.

Using the latest data from the UN’s 2024 World Population Prospects, this infographic visualizes how the world’s most populous countries are expected to change by 2100.

Animated Chart: Population Projections to 2100

This graphic is also animated! Check out the video below to see how these demographic shifts will play out over time.

Data & Discussion

The data we used to create this graphic is listed in the table below. According to these projections, India will be the most populous country in 2100, followed by China, Pakistan, and Nigeria.

Data in millions

YearIndia
🇮🇳
China
🇨🇳
Pakistan
🇵🇰
Nigeria
🇳🇬
DRC
🇨🇩
U.S.
🇺🇸
Ethiopia
🇪🇹
Indonesia
🇮🇩
1950342.6539.235.536.912.2153.117.568.1
1951350.0548.936.237.612.4155.317.869.5
1952357.8558.637.038.412.7157.618.271.1
1953366.0571.637.839.112.9160.018.572.7
1954374.2583.538.739.813.2162.418.974.4
1955383.1596.839.640.613.5164.919.276.3
1956392.3610.340.641.313.8167.519.678.3
1957401.7622.841.642.114.1170.120.080.3
1958410.8637.942.742.914.4172.820.382.5
1959420.8650.543.943.714.7175.620.684.7
1960430.8654.945.144.615.1178.721.187.1
1961441.2654.746.345.515.5181.821.689.5
1962451.9656.947.546.515.9185.122.292.1
1963462.6673.348.847.516.3188.322.894.7
1964473.7695.850.148.516.7191.323.497.4
1965484.8713.851.549.517.2194.324.0100.3
1966495.5733.052.950.617.7197.024.6102.5
1967506.0751.854.451.718.2199.525.3105.1
1968517.2770.356.052.818.7201.926.0107.9
1969528.2791.757.654.019.3204.126.7111.0
1970539.5812.659.355.219.9206.527.4114.1
1971552.2834.161.056.520.4209.128.2117.2
1972564.0854.162.757.921.0211.729.0120.4
1973577.0873.364.559.321.5214.029.8123.7
1974590.0891.966.460.822.1216.030.6126.9
1975604.1908.768.462.522.7218.131.3130.2
1976618.5923.570.564.323.3220.232.1133.5
1977633.2937.372.766.223.9222.233.0136.8
1978648.4949.875.168.324.5224.333.4140.2
1979663.1962.577.570.425.5226.534.1143.7
1980679.2976.180.572.626.3228.734.4147.2
1981695.5990.284.174.927.1231.034.5150.7
1982711.91005.287.577.227.9233.436.1154.3
1983728.71022.090.779.528.8235.837.3157.8
1984746.01036.293.881.329.7238.238.2161.5
1985763.71051.596.683.730.8240.539.3165.0
1986781.61068.199.986.131.8242.940.4168.5
1987799.81086.4103.388.432.8245.141.7171.8
1988818.11106.0106.990.833.8247.343.3175.2
1989836.61124.4110.593.334.9249.545.0178.5
1990855.51143.5114.295.836.0251.846.7181.9
1991874.51163.6118.298.437.3254.948.5185.1
1992893.41177.9122.0101.038.5258.050.9188.4
1993912.51191.2125.1103.739.9261.252.8191.7
1994931.71203.4128.9106.541.4264.154.6194.9
1995950.61214.6132.6109.443.9266.956.6198.2
1996970.01225.7136.6112.345.0269.558.5201.5
1997989.41236.2140.5115.245.6272.260.4204.9
19981008.91246.1144.5118.346.5274.862.4208.2
19991028.41255.6148.5121.448.1277.564.4211.5
20001048.01264.7152.6124.749.7280.166.4214.6
20011067.81274.4157.1128.151.3282.968.4217.6
20021088.01283.0161.4131.652.9285.770.5220.6
20031107.21290.7165.0135.354.6288.572.7223.6
20041126.41298.3169.2139.156.1291.374.9226.5
20051145.61305.9173.4143.057.9294.277.2229.3
20061163.71314.2177.5147.059.7297.279.5232.4
20071182.01321.9181.9151.161.5300.381.9235.5
20081199.31329.7187.1155.463.4303.484.3238.6
20091216.51338.0191.9159.865.4306.586.8241.7
20101234.51347.1196.9164.367.5309.589.2244.8
20111252.51356.0201.6169.069.7312.691.8247.9
20121270.01364.5205.9173.872.0315.694.5251.1
20131287.41374.6209.4178.674.5318.697.1254.3
20141304.31383.4212.7183.577.1321.699.8257.4
20151320.21392.5215.8188.379.7324.6102.5260.4
20161335.81399.8218.8193.082.4327.6105.3263.2
20171352.11408.3221.5197.985.6330.7108.2266.0
20181367.21416.4225.0202.688.6333.7111.2268.7
20191382.11421.6228.8207.291.5336.4114.2271.2
20201396.01425.4232.8211.794.4339.1117.3273.7
20211409.31426.8237.2216.397.6339.7120.5275.9
20221419.11426.1241.7220.8100.7340.6123.7277.6
20231431.71424.3245.7225.5104.1342.5127.0280.0
20241444.41420.9249.3230.3107.5344.5130.4282.4
20251457.41417.7253.2235.1111.0346.4133.8284.6
20261470.31414.5257.2240.0114.6348.2137.2286.8
20271483.01411.4261.4244.9118.3349.9140.6289.0
20281495.41408.0265.7249.9122.0351.6144.1291.0
20291507.51404.3270.1254.8125.8353.2147.6293.0
20301519.41400.3274.6259.9129.6354.9151.1294.9
20311530.91396.0279.2264.9133.5356.4154.6296.8
20321542.21391.5283.9269.9137.4358.0158.1298.6
20331553.11386.6288.6275.0141.4359.5161.7300.4
20341563.61381.5293.4280.1145.4361.0165.2302.1
20351573.81376.2298.2285.2149.5362.6168.8303.8
20361583.61370.6303.1290.2153.6364.0172.3305.4
20371593.01364.8307.9295.3157.8365.4175.9306.9
20381602.01358.8312.8300.3161.9366.9179.4308.4
20391610.61352.6317.7305.3166.2368.2183.0309.8
20401618.71346.2322.5310.2170.4369.6186.6311.2
20411626.51339.5327.3315.2174.8370.9190.3312.4
20421633.81332.5332.2320.0179.1372.1193.9313.6
20431640.71325.3336.9324.9183.6373.3197.5314.8
20441647.11317.9341.7329.6188.0374.5201.2315.8
20451653.21310.2346.5334.3192.6375.6204.8316.8
20461658.91302.1351.2339.0197.2376.6208.5317.7
20471664.21293.6355.9343.6201.8377.6212.2318.5
20481669.11284.7360.5348.1206.4378.6215.9319.2
20491673.61275.3365.1352.6211.1379.5219.5319.9
20501677.71265.5369.6357.0215.9380.4223.2320.5
20511681.51255.1374.1361.4220.6381.3226.8321.0
20521685.01244.3378.6365.7225.4382.1230.5321.4
20531688.11232.9383.0369.9230.2383.0234.2321.7
20541690.91221.0387.3374.1235.1383.8237.8322.0
20551693.31208.7391.6378.2239.9384.5241.3322.3
20561695.41196.0395.9382.3244.8385.3244.9322.4
20571697.21182.9400.1386.3249.6386.0248.5322.5
20581698.71169.5404.3390.2254.5386.8252.0322.6
20591699.81155.9408.4394.1259.4387.7255.4322.6
20601700.71142.1412.4397.9264.2388.5259.0322.6
20611701.21128.2416.4401.7269.1389.3262.5322.5
20621701.41114.2420.4405.3274.0390.2265.9322.4
20631701.21100.2424.3409.0278.8391.1269.3322.2
20641700.71086.3428.1412.5283.6392.0272.7322.0
20651699.91072.5431.8416.0288.4392.9276.1321.8
20661698.71058.8435.5419.4293.2393.8279.3321.6
20671697.21045.2439.1422.6297.9394.8282.6321.3
20681695.41031.7442.7425.9302.7395.8285.9321.0
20691693.21018.5446.2429.0307.4396.7289.1320.6
20701690.61005.3449.6432.0312.1397.7292.2320.2
20711687.8992.3452.9434.9316.7398.7295.3319.9
20721684.6979.3456.1437.8321.3399.7298.4319.4
20731681.0966.5459.2440.5325.9400.6301.5319.0
20741677.2953.6462.3443.2330.4401.5304.5318.5
20751673.1940.9465.2445.7334.9402.4307.6318.0
20761668.6928.1468.1448.2339.4403.4310.6317.4
20771664.0915.3470.9450.5343.8404.3313.5316.8
20781659.0902.5473.6452.8348.2405.1316.4316.2
20791653.8889.6476.1454.9352.5405.9319.2315.6
20801648.4876.7478.5457.0356.8406.7321.9314.9
20811642.7863.8480.9458.9361.0407.5324.6314.2
20821636.8850.9483.2460.7365.2408.3327.2313.5
20831630.8838.0485.5462.4369.4409.0329.9312.7
20841624.5825.2487.6464.0373.5409.8332.4311.9
20851618.1812.4489.6465.5377.5410.5334.9311.1
20861611.5799.8491.5466.9381.5411.2337.4310.2
20871604.8787.3493.4468.2385.4411.9339.8309.4
20881598.0775.0495.1469.4389.2412.6342.1308.5
20891591.0762.8496.8470.4393.0413.4344.4307.5
20901583.9750.8498.4471.4396.7414.1346.5306.6
20911576.7739.0499.9472.3400.3414.8348.8305.6
20921569.4727.4501.4473.1403.8415.6350.9304.6
20931562.1715.9502.9473.9407.3416.3353.0303.6
20941554.6704.5504.2474.5410.7417.0355.0302.6
20951547.1693.3505.5475.0414.0417.8357.0301.5
20961539.6682.2506.7475.5417.2418.5359.0300.5
20971532.0671.2507.8475.9420.3419.1361.0299.4
20981524.4660.2508.8476.2423.4419.8362.9298.3
20991516.8649.4509.7476.5426.4420.4364.7297.2
21001509.1638.7510.6476.7429.3421.0366.4296.1

🇮🇳 India Population Projections

India recently overtook China to become the world’s most populous country, and it’s projected to continue growing until 2062, peaking at 1.7 billion people.

Birth rates in the country have actually been declining since the 1960s, but are currently at a relatively high 2 births per woman.

🇨🇳 China Population Projections

China held the title of the world’s most populous country for many decades, but is now shrinking due to its rapidly aging population and falling fertility rates.

Based on these projections, China’s population will be 639 million in 2100, which is 788 million lower from its 2021 peak.

🇺🇸 U.S. Population Projections

The U.S. is currently the world’s third biggest country, but is expected to fall to sixth place by 2100. Unlike many other developed countries, however, the U.S. should keep growing throughout this century.

Most of this growth will be due to immigration, rather than new births, as fertility rates in the U.S. are already below the replacement level.

Learn More on the Voronoi App 

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out The World’s Aging Population on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

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