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Mapped: How Global Housing Prices Have Changed Since 2010

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A map of housing prices around the world

How Global Housing Prices Have Changed Since 2010

In many countries around the world, it seems like house prices have been constantly climbing.

Houses fulfill a rare mix of necessity, utility, sentimentality, and for many, also act as a primary investment to build wealth. And it’s that last angle, combined with increasing demand in many countries, that is driving housing prices skyward.

Using data from the Bank of International Settlements, Ehsan Soltani has ranked the change in real residential property prices for 57 countries from 2010 to 2022.

ℹ️ Real prices assess the value of a good after adjusting for inflation. This is expressed in constant values relative to a base year, in this case, 2010. Nominal prices do not adjust for inflation.

In the dataset of 57 countries, 80% have seen increases in housing prices in the last 12 years.

Real Price GrowthNominal Price Growth
Advanced economies39%77%
World27%84%
Emerging market economies18%92%
Eurozone16%45%

Advanced economies, or the most developed countries in the world, have seen the highest increases. But across all measured countries, the real price of housing has increased nearly 30% on average since 2010.

Countries with Increased Housing Prices (2010‒2022)

Leading the group of 45 countries with increased housing prices is Iceland, with local real prices more than doubling since 2010.

Housing Prices by CountryReal Price GrowthNominal Price Growth
🇮🇸 Iceland103%202%
🇪🇪 Estonia97%196%
🇳🇿 New Zealand97%152%
🇨🇱 Chile95%205%
🇹🇷 Turkey91%902%
🇨🇦 Canada90%148%
🇱🇺 Luxembourg85%135%
🇭🇺 Hungary84%168%
🇭🇰 Hong Kong83%155%
🇮🇱 Israel80%104%
🇱🇻 Latvia66%131%
🇦🇹 Austria65%118%
🇺🇸 United States63%118%
🇨🇿 Czechia61%130%
🇸🇪 Sweden60%93%
🇮🇳 India59%211%
🇲🇾 Malaysia59%102%
🇱🇹 Lithuania57%130%
🇩🇪 Germany56%96%
🇨🇭 Switzerland54%57%
🇵🇭 Philippines51%118%
🇵🇹 Portugal45%75%
🇳🇴 Norway44%91%
🇨🇴 Colombia43%133%
🇦🇺 Australia41%85%
🇸🇰 Slovak Republic34%81%
🇹🇭 Thailand32%59%
🇩🇰 Denmark31%58%
🇮🇪 Ireland31%53%
🇲🇹 Malta30%59%
🇳🇱 Netherlands30%69%
🇲🇽 Mexico28%111%
🇰🇷 South Korea24%54%
🇬🇧 United Kingdom23%67%
🇯🇵 Japan22%31%
🇸🇮 Slovenia20%47%
🇵🇪 Peru18%73%
🇧🇬 Bulgaria16%58%
🇭🇷 Croatia15%43%
🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates12%34%
🇧🇪 Belgium11%45%
🇫🇷 France11%31%
🇸🇬 Singapore11%36%
🇵🇱 Poland10%55%
🇨🇳 China8%42%

Other countries with a 85% or higher increases in housing prices include Estonia, New Zealand, Chile, Turkey, Canada, and Luxembourg. As emerging market economies, Turkey and Chile are the outliers in this group of mostly advanced economies.

Many other emerging market economies also saw housing prices increase. In India and Malaysia, housing prices are up by 59%. Likewise, the Philippines (50%) and Colombia (40%) also saw real prices increase faster than the global average.

However, not all countries logged big housing price increases. Some countries in Europe, including France, Belgium, and Croatia, and Asia, including China, and Singapore, all saw less than 20% growth in real prices.

Countries with Decreased Housing Prices (2010‒2022)

Some countries bucked the global trend and actually saw real housing prices fall over the last twelve years:

Housing Prices by CountryReal Price GrowthNominal Price Growth
🇮🇩 Indonesia0%62%
🇫🇮 Finland-1%21%
🇿🇦 South Africa-5%72%
🇲🇰 North Macedonia-7%23%
🇧🇷 Brazil-8%89%
🇷🇸 Serbia-11%49%
🇲🇦 Morocco-14%4%
🇪🇸 Spain-15%5%
🇷🇴 Romania-20%21%
🇮🇹 Italy-24%-8%
🇬🇷 Greece-26%-16%
🇷🇺 Russia-33%54%

Russia, Greece, and Italy saw the largest contractions in prices, all with housing price drops of more than 20%.

But these cases also allow us to see inflation in action. In Russia for example, despite real housing prices contracting by 33%, nominal prices (which don’t account for inflation) are up more than 50%. In South Africa, where real prices have fallen 5%, nominal prices are up 72%.

Is Your Country in a Housing Bubble?

From the housing prices of countries listed above, the data can point to the emergence of potential housing bubbles in Iceland, New Zealand, and Canada.

However, bubbles are usually only fully identified and measured after they have burst (or have started to). Otherwise, if their inflated values hold through sudden changes in market conditions, they can simply point to more accurately-priced demand.

There are a variety of reasons that can lead to housing price growth. Some of them are listed below, taken from a speech delivered by the deputy governor of the Bank of Canada back in 2015:

MacroeconomicRising disposable incomes, lower long-term interest rates.
DemographicPopulation growth, increased migration, and shifts in family structure.
Credit conditionsBroader access to and more efficient funding of mortgage credit.
Other factorsImprovements to macro-policy framework, international investment, and regulatory and tax changes.

And specific local factors also play a part in many markets. In Iceland for example, tourism growth and the surge in short-term rentals have also contributed to the housing crisis.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., restricted housing supply is one of the factors pushing prices up.

When you factor in successive interest rate hikes to combat inflation and rising mortgage rates, the housing market remains at the forefront of discussion more so than ever. The question is, what comes next for the world’s housing prices?

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Real Estate

Mapped: The Growth in House Prices by Country

Global house prices were resilient in 2022, rising 6%. We compare nominal and real price growth by country as interest rates surged.

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The Growth in House Prices by Country

Mapped: The Growth in House Prices by Country

This was originally posted on Advisor Channel. Sign up to the free mailing list to get beautiful visualizations on financial markets that help advisors and their clients.

Global housing prices rose an average of 6% annually, between Q4 2021 and Q4 2022.

In real terms that take inflation into account, prices actually fell 2% for the first decline in 12 years. Despite a surge in interest rates and mortgage costs, housing markets were noticeably stable. Real prices remain 7% above pre-pandemic levels.

In this graphic, we show the change in residential property prices with data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

The Growth in House Prices, Ranked

The following dataset from the BIS covers nominal and real house price growth across 58 countries and regions as of the fourth quarter of 2022:

Price Growth
Rank
Country /
Region
Nominal Year-over-Year
Change (%)
Real Year-over-Year
Change (%)
1🇹🇷 Türkiye167.951.0
2🇷🇸 Serbia23.17.0
3🇷🇺 Russia23.19.7
4🇲🇰 North Macedonia20.61.0
5🇮🇸 Iceland20.39.9
6🇭🇷 Croatia17.33.6
7🇪🇪 Estonia16.9-3.0
8🇮🇱 Israel16.811.0
9🇭🇺 Hungary16.5-5.1
10🇱🇹 Lithuania16.0-5.5
11🇸🇮 Slovenia15.44.2
12🇧🇬 Bulgaria13.4-3.2
13🇬🇷 Greece12.23.7
14🇵🇹 Portugal11.31.3
15🇬🇧 United Kingdom10.0-0.7
16🇸🇰 Slovak Republic9.7-4.8
17
🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates
9.62.9
18🇵🇱 Poland9.3-6.9
19🇱🇻 Latvia9.1-10.2
20🇸🇬 Singapore8.61.9
21🇮🇪 Ireland8.6-0.2
22🇨🇱 Chile8.2-3.0
23🇯🇵 Japan7.93.9
24🇲🇽 Mexico7.9-0.1
25🇵🇭 Philippines7.7-0.2
26🇺🇸 United States7.10.0
27🇨🇿 Czechia6.9-7.6
28🇷🇴 Romania6.7-7.5
29🇲🇹 Malta6.3-0.7
30🇨🇾 Cyprus6.3-2.9
31🇨🇴 Colombia6.3-5.6
32🇱🇺 Luxembourg5.6-0.5
33🇪🇸 Spain5.5-1.1
34🇨🇭 Switzerland5.42.4
35🇳🇱 Netherlands5.4-5.3
36🇦🇹 Austria5.2-4.8
37🇫🇷 France4.8-1.2
38🇧🇪 Belgium4.7-5.7
39🇹🇭 Thailand4.7-1.1
40🇿🇦 South Africa3.1-4.0
41🇮🇳 India2.8-3.1
42🇮🇹 Italy2.8-8.0
43🇳🇴 Norway2.6-3.8
44🇮🇩 Indonesia2.0-3.4
45🇵🇪 Peru1.5-6.3
46🇲🇾 Malaysia1.2-2.6
47🇰🇷 South Korea-0.1-5.0
48🇲🇦 Morocco-0.1-7.7
49🇧🇷 Brazil-0.1-5.8
50🇫🇮 Finland-2.3-10.2
51🇩🇰 Denmark-2.4-10.6
52🇦🇺 Australia-3.2-10.2
53🇩🇪 Germany-3.6-12.1
54🇸🇪 Sweden-3.7-13.7
55🇨🇳 China-3.7-5.4
56🇨🇦 Canada-3.8-9.8
57🇳🇿 New Zealand-10.4-16.5
58🇭🇰 Hong Kong SAR-13.5-15.1

Türkiye’s property prices jumped the highest globally, at nearly 168% amid soaring inflation.

Real estate demand has increased alongside declining interest rates. The government drastically cut interest rates from 19% in late 2021 to 8.5% to support a weakening economy.

Many European countries saw some of the highest price growth in nominal terms. A strong labor market and low interest rates pushed up prices, even as mortgage rates broadly doubled across the continent. For real price growth, most countries were in negative territory—notably Sweden, Germany, and Denmark.

Nominal U.S. housing prices grew just over 7%, while real price growth halted to 0%. Prices have remained elevated given the stubbornly low supply of inventory. In fact, residential prices remain 45% above pre-pandemic levels.

How Do Interest Rates Impact Property Markets?

Global house prices boomed during the pandemic as central banks cut interest rates to prop up economies.

Now, rates have returned to levels last seen before the Global Financial Crisis. On average, rates have increased four percentage points in many major economies. Roughly three-quarters of the countries in the BIS dataset witnessed negative year-over-year real house price growth as of the fourth quarter of 2022.

Interest rates have a large impact on property prices. Cross-country evidence shows that for every one percentage point increase in real interest rates, the growth rate of housing prices tends to fall by about two percentage points.

When Will Housing Prices Fall?

The rise in U.S. interest rates has been counteracted by homeowners being reluctant to sell so they can keep their low mortgage rates. As a result, it is keeping inventory low and prices high. Homeowners can’t sell and keep their low mortgage rates unless they meet strict conditions on a new property.

Additionally, several other factors impact price dynamics. Construction costs, income growth, labor shortages, and population growth all play a role.

With a strong labor market continuing through 2023, stable incomes may help stave off prices from falling. On the other hand, buyers with floating-rate mortgages face steeper costs and may be unable to afford new rates. This could increase housing supply in the market, potentially leading to lower prices.

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