Misc
Cognitive Biases: Three Common Types Illustrated
In a world of information overload, we can fall victim to all sorts of cognitive biases. Since they can lead us to generate false conclusions, it’s particularly important to understand what these biases are and how they work, as the consequences can become quite drastic.
Confirmation bias, sampling bias, and brilliance bias are three examples that can affect our ability to critically engage with information. Jono Hey of Sketchplanations walks us through these cognitive bias examples, to help us better understand how they influence our day-to-day lives.
Confirmation Bias
One of the most-commonly encountered and understood, you’re likely to have already heard about confirmation bias. This cognitive bias affects the way we test and evaluate hypotheses every day.
In simple terms, confirmation bias is the tendency to seek out or interpret evidence in such a way that supports our own strongly-held beliefs or expectations. This means that, given access to the same set of data and information, different people can come to wildly differing conclusions.
Feeding into confirmation bias can lead us to make ill-informed choices or even reinforce negative stereotypes. For this reason, it is important to remember to seek out information that both confirms and contradicts your presumptions about a certain topic.
Sampling Bias
Sampling bias is a kind of bias that allows us to come to faulty conclusions based on inaccurate sample groups or data. Generally, the cause of sample bias is in poor study design and data collection.
When polling individuals for survey questions, it is important to get a representative picture of an entire population. But this can prove surprisingly difficult when the people generating the study are also prone to human flaws, including cognitive biases.
A common example involves conducting a survey on which political party is likely to win an election. If the study is run by a professor who only polls college students, since they are around and therefore easier to collect information from, the poll will not accurately reflect the opinions of the general population.
To avoid sampling bias, it is important to randomize data collection to ensure responses are not skewed towards individuals with similar characteristics.
Brilliance Bias
Brilliance bias is another common cognitive bias that makes us more likely to think of genius as a masculine trait. This is in part due to the lack of female representation in both traditional academic and executive positions.
In fact, The Journal of Experimental Social Psychology published an in-depth study on brilliance bias in 2020. It suggests that a likely source of this bias is in the uneven distribution of men and women across careers typically associated with higher level intelligence.
While this distribution is a remnant of historical factors that limited access to education and career choices for women in the past, its presence has made us (wrongly) conclude that women are less brilliant instead. Naturally, as the cycle perpetuates the uneven distribution of women in these careers, it only reinforces this bias.
Other Cognitive Bias Examples
These few examples from Jono Hey give a good overview of some of the biases we face when trying to understand the data given to us, but they are just the tip of the iceberg.
It is important to be cognizant of these biases in an era where we are constantly engaging with information, especially if we want to combat some of the harmful consequences they entail.
This article was published as a part of Visual Capitalist's Creator Program, which features data-driven visuals from some of our favorite Creators around the world.
Misc
What Americans Predict Will Happen in 2025
A majority expect immigration to rise, conflicts to continue.
What Americans Predict Will Happen in 2025
This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
The year 2025 begins with a new president taking office, a ceasefire in Gaza, and wildfires causing extensive destruction in Los Angeles—all within the first month. So, what can we expect from the rest of the year?
This graphic presents predictions for 2025 on various topics, based on a survey conducted by Ipsos between October 25 and November 8, 2024, in the United States.
What Will 2025 Bring?
Below is the full table of data presented in the visualization:
Predictions for 2025 | Likely | Unlikely |
---|---|---|
There will be more extreme weather in the U.S. | 66% | 21% |
Inflation will be higher | 59% | 27% |
My personal data will be leaked on the internet | 58% | 28% |
Immigration Will Increase | 56% | 28% |
Unemployment will be higher | 52% | 31% |
Women will be paid the same as men | 43% | 45% |
There will be a new global pandemic caused by a new virus | 39% | 38% |
Four-day work will become normal | 30% | 56% |
Population will fall | 28% | 57% |
People will become more tolerant | 26% | 63% |
The war in Ukraine will end in 2025 | 26% | 52% |
The conflicts in the Middle East will end in 2025 | 19% | 65% |
Highlights from the survey include:
- Americans foresee an increase in extreme weather events in 2025. A majority (56%) also expect immigration to rise, despite Trump’s promises to deport illegal immigrants and impose taxes on products from Mexico and Canada if neighboring countries don’t improve border security.
- Most respondents also anticipate their personal data being leaked on the internet and believe that unemployment will increase.
- Only 2 in 10 Americans think the conflicts in the Middle East will end in 2025 (noting that the survey was conducted before the Gaza ceasefire agreement). Additionally, 3 in 10 Americans believe the war in Ukraine will conclude this year.
- Finally, 63% of respondents feel it is unlikely that people will become more tolerant in 2025.
Learn More on the Voronoi App
If you enjoyed this chart, check out this graphic that shows the countries most exposed to potential immigration policy changes under the Trump presidency.
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