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Charted: The Global Decline of Fertility Rates

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Chart showing the change in global fertility rates since 1951

Charted: The Global Decline of Fertility Rates

Over the last 50 years, fertility rates have dropped drastically around the world. In 1952, the average global family had five children—now, they have less than three.

This graphic by Pablo Alvarez uses tracked fertility rates from Our World in Data to show how rates have evolved (and largely fallen) over the past decades.

What’s The Difference Between Fertility Rates and Birth Rates?

Though both measures relate to population growth, a country’s birth rate and fertility rate are noticeably different:

  • Birth Rate: The total number of births in a year per 1,000 individuals.
  • Fertility Rate: The total number of births in a year per 1,000 women of reproductive age in a population.

As such, the fertility rate is a more specific measure, which as Britannica highlights, “allows for more efficient and beneficial planning and resource allocation.” Not including immigration, a given area needs an overall total fertility rate of 2.1 to keep a stable population.

Global Fertility Rates since 1952

For the last half-century, fertility rates have steadily decreased worldwide. Here’s a look at the average number of children per woman since 1952:

YearAverage # of children per family% change (y-o-y)
19515.0-0.5%
19525.0-1.4%
19534.9-0.7%
19544.9-0.5%
19554.9-0.3%
19564.9-0.1%
19574.90.1%
19584.90.3%
19594.90.4%
19605.00.5%
19615.00.5%
19625.00.4%
19635.00.3%
19645.00.1%
19655.0-0.2%
19665.0-0.5%
19675.0-0.8%
19684.9-1.1%
19694.8-1.4%
19704.7-1.8%
19714.6-2.1%
19724.5-2.5%
19734.4-2.7%
19744.3-2.9%
19754.2-2.9%
19764.0-2.8%
19773.9-2.7%
19783.8-2.4%
19793.8-2.1%
19803.7-1.7%
19813.6-1.3%
19823.6-1.0%
19833.6-0.8%
19843.6-0.7%
19853.5-0.8%
19863.5-1.0%
19873.4-1.4%
19883.4-1.7%
19893.3-2.1%
19903.2-2.4%
19913.1-2.6%
19923.1-2.6%
19933.0-2.4%
19942.9-2.2%
19952.9-1.8%
19962.8-1.5%
19972.8-1.3%
19982.8-1.1%
19992.7-1.1%
20002.7-0.9%
20012.7-0.9%
20022.7-0.7%
20032.6-0.6%
20042.6-0.6%
20052.6-0.5%
20062.6-0.5%
20072.6-0.5%
20082.6-0.5%
20092.6-0.5%
20102.5-0.5%
20112.5-0.5%
20122.5-0.5%
20132.5-0.5%
20142.5-0.4%
20152.5-0.4%
20162.5-0.4%
20172.5-0.4%
20182.5-0.4%
20192.5-0.4%
20202.4-0.4%

Why are women having fewer children? There are a number of theories and empirical research studies to help explain this decrease, but according to Dr. Max Roser, the founder of Our World in Data, most of the literature boils down to three main factors:

  • Women’s empowerment, particularly in education and the workforce
  • Lower child mortality
  • Increased cost to raising children

Research has found that higher education in women is correlated with lower fertility. For instance, in Iran in the 1950s, women had an average of three years of schooling and raised seven children on average.

But by 2010, when Iranian women had nine years of schooling on average, the average fertility rate in the country had dropped to 1.8.

This theory is further supported when you look at countries where women’s education is still relatively lagging. For instance, in 2010, women in Niger had 1.3 years of education on average, and an average of more than seven children—more than double the global average at that time.

The Societal Impact

Lower fertility rates, coupled with increased life expectancies around the world, are creating an aging population. Since 1950, the global median age has grown from 25 years to 33 years.

An older population comes with a number of economic risks, including rising healthcare costs and a smaller global workforce.

share of population that's working age is shrinking

According to a report by the World Bank, the world’s working-age population peaked back in 2012. Since then, it’s been on the decline.

A smaller working population puts more pressure on those who are working to support those who are collecting pensions. This could ultimately lead to an economic slowdown if countries don’t prepare and alter their pension systems accordingly, to account for our aging population.

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This article was published as a part of Visual Capitalist's Creator Program, which features data-driven visuals from some of our favorite Creators around the world.

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Misc

Which Countries Have the Most Spanish Speakers?

Mexico is the undisputed leader in Spanish speakers with 132.4 million speakers, more than double the next closest country

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Ranked: Countries by Number of Spanish Speakers

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

From bustling Madrid to the streets of Mexico City, Spanish echoes across continents as the world’s fourth-most spoken language, as of 2023.

Among United Nations member states and dependencies, Spanish also ranks as one of the most common official languages, surpassed only by English, French, and Arabic

This graphic visualizes the number and share of Spanish speakers in the top 20 countries with the most Spanish speakers, with native speakers and limited proficiency speakers included.

Figures for the number of Spanish speaker and population of Spanish-speaking countries comes from Instituto Cervantes for 2024, and population data used to calculate the share of Spanish speakers for the U.S, EU-27, and the UK come from the U.S. Census Bureau, Eurostat, and UK Office for National Statistics respectively.

Mexico Has Most Spanish Speakers

In the table below, we show the data for the number of Spanish speakers, the 2024 population, and the share of Spanish speakers in 20 countries.

Country/RegionTotal Spanish SpeakersPopulation (2024)Share of Spanish Speakers
🇲🇽 Mexico132,410,920132,490,415100%
🇺🇸 United States57,253,801341,004,89617%
🇨🇴 Colombia52,695,95252,695,952100%
🇪🇸 Spain48,107,46848,446,59499%
🇦🇷 Argentina46,846,84546,846,845100%
🇵🇪 Peru31,432,45535,371,49689%
🇻🇪 Venezuela29,395,33429,395,334100%
🇪🇺 European Union (EU-27)29,314,000449,200,0007%
🇨🇱 Chile20,086,37720,086,377100%
🇬🇹 Guatemala16,783,08117,843,13294%
🇪🇨 Ecuador16,599,84417,142,25497%
🇧🇴 Bolivia12,171,85612,332,25299%
🇨🇺 Cuba11,080,75611,174,58799%
🇩🇴 Dominican Republic10,792,33210,792,332100%
🇭🇳 Honduras9,892,6329,892,632100%
🇵🇾 Paraguay7,609,4467,656,21599%
🇳🇮 Nicaragua7,143,8477,143,847100%
🇸🇻 El Salvador6,399,4716,399,471100%
🇨🇷 Costa Rica5,309,6275,309,627100%
🇬🇧 United Kingdom5,099,25968,300,0007%

Mexico is the undisputed leader in Spanish speakers with 132.4 million speakers, more than double the next closest country (U.S. with 57.3 million). While Mexico is home to the most native Spanish speakers, about 6.1% of its population in 2020 cited speaking an Indigenous language.

The U.S. and the UK are home to a significant number of Spanish speakers, reflecting decades of Latin American immigration patterns.

In fact, the U.S. is home to more Spanish speakers than Spain itself, which isn’t much of a surprise given the countries’ population difference.

Despite having a population nearly seven times larger (341 million vs. 48 million), the U.S. only marginally surpasses Spain in total Spanish speakers (57.3 million vs. 48.1 million).

Spanish evolved from Vulgar Latin spoken in the Iberian Peninsula, incorporating influences from Visigothic, Arabic, and local indigenous languages during centuries of migration and conquest.

The language spread to the Americas through Spanish colonization beginning in the late 15th century, when conquistadors and missionaries imposed Spanish as the dominant language.

However, its dominance evolved over time through complex interactions that included both the suppression and absorption of indigenous languages like Nahuatl and Quechua, as well as strategic alliances that helped some languages thrive.

Learn More on the Voronoi App

Interested in more linguistic data visualizations? Check out this graphic that visualizes the current global landscape of languages that could become extinct, created by Stephen Jones from Visual Capitalist’s Creator Program.

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