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Charted: The Global Decline of Fertility Rates

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Chart showing the change in global fertility rates since 1951

Charted: The Global Decline of Fertility Rates

Over the last 50 years, fertility rates have dropped drastically around the world. In 1952, the average global family had five children—now, they have less than three.

This graphic by Pablo Alvarez uses tracked fertility rates from Our World in Data to show how rates have evolved (and largely fallen) over the past decades.

What’s The Difference Between Fertility Rates and Birth Rates?

Though both measures relate to population growth, a country’s birth rate and fertility rate are noticeably different:

  • Birth Rate: The total number of births in a year per 1,000 individuals.
  • Fertility Rate: The total number of births in a year per 1,000 women of reproductive age in a population.

As such, the fertility rate is a more specific measure, which as Britannica highlights, “allows for more efficient and beneficial planning and resource allocation.” Not including immigration, a given area needs an overall total fertility rate of 2.1 to keep a stable population.

Global Fertility Rates since 1952

For the last half-century, fertility rates have steadily decreased worldwide. Here’s a look at the average number of children per woman since 1952:

YearAverage # of children per family% change (y-o-y)
19515.0-0.5%
19525.0-1.4%
19534.9-0.7%
19544.9-0.5%
19554.9-0.3%
19564.9-0.1%
19574.90.1%
19584.90.3%
19594.90.4%
19605.00.5%
19615.00.5%
19625.00.4%
19635.00.3%
19645.00.1%
19655.0-0.2%
19665.0-0.5%
19675.0-0.8%
19684.9-1.1%
19694.8-1.4%
19704.7-1.8%
19714.6-2.1%
19724.5-2.5%
19734.4-2.7%
19744.3-2.9%
19754.2-2.9%
19764.0-2.8%
19773.9-2.7%
19783.8-2.4%
19793.8-2.1%
19803.7-1.7%
19813.6-1.3%
19823.6-1.0%
19833.6-0.8%
19843.6-0.7%
19853.5-0.8%
19863.5-1.0%
19873.4-1.4%
19883.4-1.7%
19893.3-2.1%
19903.2-2.4%
19913.1-2.6%
19923.1-2.6%
19933.0-2.4%
19942.9-2.2%
19952.9-1.8%
19962.8-1.5%
19972.8-1.3%
19982.8-1.1%
19992.7-1.1%
20002.7-0.9%
20012.7-0.9%
20022.7-0.7%
20032.6-0.6%
20042.6-0.6%
20052.6-0.5%
20062.6-0.5%
20072.6-0.5%
20082.6-0.5%
20092.6-0.5%
20102.5-0.5%
20112.5-0.5%
20122.5-0.5%
20132.5-0.5%
20142.5-0.4%
20152.5-0.4%
20162.5-0.4%
20172.5-0.4%
20182.5-0.4%
20192.5-0.4%
20202.4-0.4%

Why are women having fewer children? There are a number of theories and empirical research studies to help explain this decrease, but according to Dr. Max Roser, the founder of Our World in Data, most of the literature boils down to three main factors:

  • Women’s empowerment, particularly in education and the workforce
  • Lower child mortality
  • Increased cost to raising children

Research has found that higher education in women is correlated with lower fertility. For instance, in Iran in the 1950s, women had an average of three years of schooling and raised seven children on average.

But by 2010, when Iranian women had nine years of schooling on average, the average fertility rate in the country had dropped to 1.8.

This theory is further supported when you look at countries where women’s education is still relatively lagging. For instance, in 2010, women in Niger had 1.3 years of education on average, and an average of more than seven children—more than double the global average at that time.

The Societal Impact

Lower fertility rates, coupled with increased life expectancies around the world, are creating an aging population. Since 1950, the global median age has grown from 25 years to 33 years.

An older population comes with a number of economic risks, including rising healthcare costs and a smaller global workforce.

share of population that's working age is shrinking

According to a report by the World Bank, the world’s working-age population peaked back in 2012. Since then, it’s been on the decline.

A smaller working population puts more pressure on those who are working to support those who are collecting pensions. This could ultimately lead to an economic slowdown if countries don’t prepare and alter their pension systems accordingly, to account for our aging population.

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This article was published as a part of Visual Capitalist's Creator Program, which features data-driven visuals from some of our favorite Creators around the world.

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Demographics

Top 20 Countries Where Older People Are the Happiest

Advanced economies are the happiest countries for older people, likely due to their stronger social security systems.

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A cropped chart ranking the top 20 happiest countries, for those over 60 years old, sourced from the World Happiness Report 2024.

Top 20 Countries Where Older People Are the Happiest

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

The newest global happiness index doesn’t have any massive surprises from the ongoing trends of the last decade: Europe generally does the best, Africa is still finding its footing, and Asia and South America have vast rank disparities between constituent nations.

However, as the World Happiness Report notes, happiness levels differ across age groups, and countries’ overall ranks tend to obfuscate how the old and young feel separately. To counter this, the report also creates a happiness index by age.

We’ve visualized the top 20 happiest countries according to those aged above 60. For comparison, we have also included a country’s overall index rank.

Data and Takeaways

ℹ️ Gallup’s survey in Israel occurred after October 7th, but before much of the subsequent warfare. As a result, overall life evaluations in the country fell by 0.9 for 2023. Note that each country’s rank is based on a three-year average score.

The top two countries where the seniors are most satisfied—Denmark and Finland—also happen to be the top two countries on the overall happiness index.

As a general trend, advanced economies make up the bulk of this top 20 list, likely due to their stronger social security systems and financial security. Relatedly, they also tend to do well when it comes to the best countries to retire in.

CountryHappiness Rank
(Age 60+)
Overall Happiness
Rank (All ages)
Rank
Difference
🇩🇰 Denmark12-1
🇫🇮 Finland21+1
🇳🇴 Norway37-4
🇸🇪 Sweden440
🇮🇸 Iceland53+2
🇳🇿 New Zealand611-5
🇳🇱 Netherlands76+1
🇨🇦 Canada815-7
🇦🇺 Australia910-1
🇺🇸 U.S.1023-13
🇦🇪 UAE1122-11
🇱🇺 Luxembourg128+4
🇰🇼 Kuwait13130
🇨🇭 Switzerland149+5
🇦🇹 Austria1514+1
🇮🇪 Ireland1617-1
🇨🇷 Costa Rica1712+5
🇮🇱 Israel185+13
🇧🇪 Belgium1916+3
🇬🇧 UK20200

Norway, at third, has the first real discrepancy, with its elderly population ranking four places higher compared to its overall 7th place rank.

New Zealand (6th) and Canada (8th) also have gaps with their overall ranks: indicating that the older generation is happier than other generations within the country.

But for the U.S., (10th) and the UAE (11th), this rank discrepancy is in the double-digits.

In fact, when ranking only by those aged below 30, the U.S. ranks outside of the top 50, indicating that its younger residents are significantly unhappier than their older counterparts.

This is an interesting phenomenon mirrored in Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. According to the report, as recently as a decade ago, the younger generation in these countries were about as happy as those aged over 60.

“In the West, the received wisdom was that the young are the happiest and that happiness thereafter declines until middle age, followed by substantial recovery.” –- World Happiness Report.

For other countries like Costa Rica (17) and Israel (18), this pattern reverses. Their overall rank is higher than their rank for older populations, indicating that the young are happier.

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