Connect with us

Markets

Animation: Visualizing U.S. Interest Rates Since 2020

Published

on

Visualizing Interest Rates Since 2020

In March 2020, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut already depressed interest rates to historic lows amid an unraveling COVID-19 pandemic.

Fast-forward to 2022, and the central bank is grappling with a very different economic situation⁠ that includes high inflation, low unemployment, and increasing wage growth. Given these conditions, it raised interest rates to 2.25% up from 0% in just five months.

The above visualization from Jan Varsava shows U.S. interest rates over the last two years along with its impact on Treasury yields, often considered a key indicator for the economy.

Timeline of Interest Rates

Below, we show how U.S. interest rates have changed over the course of the pandemic:

DateFederal Funds Rate (Range)Rate Change (bps)
July 27, 20222.25% to 2.50%+75
June 16, 20221.50% to 1.75%+75
May 5, 20220.75% to 1.00%+50
March 17, 20220.25% to 0.50%+25
March 16, 20200.00% to 0.25%-100
March 3, 20201.00% to 1.25%-150

In early 2020, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates from 1% to 0% in emergency meetings. The U.S. economy then jumped back from its shortest recession ever recorded, partially supported by massive policy stimulus.

But by 2022, as the inflation rate hit 40-year highs, the central bank had to make its first rate increase in over two years. During the following Federal Reserve meetings, interest rates were then hiked 50 basis points, and then 75 basis points two times shortly after.

Despite these efforts to rein in inflation, price pressures remain high. The war in Ukraine, supply disruptions, and rising demand all contribute to higher prices, along with increasing public-debt loads. In fact, a Federal Reserve estimate suggests that inflation was 2.5% higher due to the $1.9 trillion stimulus, an effect of “fiscal inflation.”

Impact on the Treasury Yield Curve

The sharp rise in interest rates has sent shockwaves through markets. The S&P 500 Index has steadily declined 19% year-to-date, and the NASDAQ Composite Index has fallen over 27%.

Bond markets are also showing signs of uncertainty, with the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield curve acting as a prime example. This yield curve subtracts the return on short-term government bonds from long-term government bonds.

When long-term bond yields are lower than short-term yields—in other words, the yield curve inverts—it indicates that markets predict slower future growth. In recent history, the yield curve inverting has often signaled a recession. The table below shows periods of yield curve inversions for one month or more since 1978.

Yield Curve Inversion DateNumber of MonthsMaximum Difference (10 yr - 2 yr bps)
Aug 197821 -241
Sep 198013 -170
Jan 19824 -71
Jun 19821 -34
Dec 19886 -45
Aug 19892 -18
Jun 19981 -7
Feb 200010 -51
Feb 20061 -16
Jun 20061 -7
Aug 20067-19
Jul 20222*-48

*Data as of September 9, 2022
Source: Federal Reserve

For example, the yield curve inverted in February 2000 to a bottom of -51 basis points difference between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 2-year Treasury yield. In March 2001, the U.S. economy went into recession as the Dotcom Bubble burst.

More recently, the yield curve has inverted to its steepest level in two decades.

This trend is extending to other countries as well. Both New Zealand and the UK’s yield curves inverted in August. In Australia, the yield spread between 3-year and 10-year bond futures—its primary measure—was at its narrowest in a decade.

What’s On the Horizon?

Sustained Treasury yield inversions have sometimes occurred after tightening monetary policy.

In both 1980 and 2000, the Federal Reserve increased interest rates to fight inflation. For instance, when interest rates jumped to 20% in 1981 under Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, the U.S. Treasury yield inverted over 150 basis points.

This suggests that monetary policy can have a large impact on the direction of the yield curve. That’s because short-term interest rates rise when the central bank raises interest rates to combat inflation.

On the flip side, long-term bonds like the 10-year Treasury yield can be affected by growth prospects and market sentiment. If growth expectations are low and market uncertainty is high, it may cause yields to fall. Taken together, whether or not the economy could be headed for a recession remains unclear.

green check mark icon

This article was published as a part of Visual Capitalist's Creator Program, which features data-driven visuals from some of our favorite Creators around the world.

Subscribe to Visual Capitalist
Click for Comments

Markets

Mapped: The Migration of the World’s Millionaires in 2023

Where do the world’s wealthiest people want to live? This map tracks the migration of the world’s High Net Worth Individuals (HNWIs).

Published

on

migration of HNWIs

Mapping the Migration of the World’s Millionaires 2023

Just like everyone else, High Net Worth Individuals (HNWIs) traveled less than usual during the pandemic, and as a result their migration numbers trended downwards. But millionaires and billionaires are on the move again and it is anticipated that 122,000 HNWIs will move to a new country by the end of the year.

Henley & Partners’ Private Wealth Migration Report has tracked the countries HNWIs have moved from and to over the last 10 years; this map showcases the 2023 forecasts.

In this context, HNWIs are defined as individuals with a net worth of at least $1 million USD.

The Countries Welcoming New Millionaires

The top 10 countries which are likely to become home to the highest number of millionaires and billionaires in 2023 are scattered across the globe, with Australia reclaiming its top spot this year from the UAE.

Here’s a closer look at the data:

RankCountryProjected HNWI Inflow 2023
1🇦🇺 Australia5,200
2🇦🇪 UAE4,500
3🇸🇬 Singapore3,200
4🇺🇸 U.S.2,100
5🇨🇭 Switzerland1,800
6🇨🇦 Canada1,600
7🇬🇷 Greece1,200
8🇫🇷 France1,000
9🇵🇹 Portugal800
10🇳🇿 New Zealand700

Only two Asian countries make the top 10, with the rest spread across Europe, North America, and Oceania.

Despite historic economic challenges, Greece is projected to gain 1,200 High Net Worth Individuals this year. One reason could be the country’s golden visa program, wherein wealthy individuals can easily obtain residence and eventually EU passports for the right price—currently a minimum real estate investment cost of 250,000 euros is all that’s required.

Many of the leading millionaire destinations are attractive for wealthy individuals because of higher levels of economic freedom, allowing for laxer tax burdens or ease of investment. Singapore, which expects to gain 3,200 millionaires, is the most economically free market in the world.

The Countries Losing the Most Millionaires

China is anticipated to lose 13,500 High Net Worth Individuals this year, more than double as many as the second place country, India (6,500).

Here’s a closer look at the bottom 10:

RankCountryProjected HNWI Outflow 2023
1🇨🇳 China-13,500
2🇮🇳 India-6,500
3🇬🇧 UK-3,200
4🇷🇺 Russia-3,000
5🇧🇷 Brazil-1,200
6🇭🇰 Hong Kong SAR -1,000
7🇰🇷 South Korea-800
8🇲🇽 Mexico-700
9🇿🇦 South Africa-500
10🇯🇵 Japan-300

In a number of these countries, strict regulatory bodies and corrupt governments can hinder the ease with which HNWIs can manage their own money.

In Russia, many wealthy individuals are facing personal tariffs and trade restrictions from Western countries due to the war in Ukraine. China’s crackdowns on Hong Kong have made it a less attractive place for business. And finally, the UK’s exit from the EU has caused many businesses and individuals to lose the easy movement of labor, finances, and investment that made operations across European borders seamless.

Some of these countries may still be adding homegrown millionaires and billionaires, but losing thousands of HNWIs to net migration does have a considerable economic impact.

Overall, millionaires are increasingly on the move. In the 10 years of reporting—despite a dip during the pandemic—the number of HNWIs moving away from their countries of origin has been growing every year.

Here’s a look at the numbers:

YearProjected HNWI Migration
201351,000
201457,000
201564,000
201682,000
201795,000
2018108,000
2019110,000
202012,000
202125,000
202284,000
2023 (forecast)122,000

In a geopolitically fragile but more connected world, it’s no surprise to see millionaires voting with their feet. As a result, governments are increasingly in competition to win the hearts and minds of the world’s economic elite to their side.

Continue Reading

Subscribe

Popular