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The Hardest Hit Companies of the COVID-19 Downturn: The ‘BEACH’ Stocks

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Beach stocks shrinking market cap

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BEACH Stocks: $332B in Value Washed Away

The market’s latest storm has plunged the global travel industry into uncharted territory.

Since the S&P 500 market high on February 19, 2020, market capitalizations across BEACH industries—booking, entertainment, airlines, cruises, and hotels—have tumbled. The global airline industry alone has seen $157B wiped off valuations across 116 publicly traded airlines.

Investor confidence in cruise lines has also dropped. Between Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, over half of their market value has evaporated—equal to at least $42B in combined market capitalization.

Today’s infographic profiles the steep losses across BEACH companies. It looks at the ripple effects across individual companies and industries from the February 19 peak to date*.

*All numbers as of market close on March 24, 2020

 

Falling Off A Cliff

As the COVID-19 pandemic has spread to over 100 countries, many governments have implemented sweeping travel restrictions.

The impact across BEACH industries is far-reaching, with some valuations declining to nearly a quarter of their previous total.

CompanyTickerCategoryMarket Cap: 02/19/2020Market Cap: 03/24/2020% Change
Booking Holdings
BKNGBooking$80.8B$51B-37%
Expedia GroupEXPEBooking$17.1B$8.1B-53%
Allegiant TravelALGTBooking$2.7B$1.4B-47%
Live Nation LYVEntertainment & Live Events$16.3B$9.1B-44%
Six FlagsSIXEntertainment & Live Events$3.2B$1.1B-66%
Cedar FairFUNEntertainment & Live Events$3.1B$1.3B-58%
The Walt Disney CoDISEntertainment & Live Events$255.1B$177B-31%
Penn National GamingPENNEntertainment & Live Events$4.3B$1.6B-63%
Delta Air LinesDALAirlines$37.5B$17.8B-52%
United Airlines UALAirlines$19.7B$8.4B-57%
American Airlines AALAirlines$12.1B$6.1B-50%
Southwest AirlinesLUVAirlines$29.5B$19.7B-33%
Alaska Air GroupALKAirlines$8B$3.7B-54%
Air Canada (in USD)ACAirlines$8.3B$2.8B-67%
CarnivalCCLCruise & Casino$30.8B$10B-67%
Royal Caribbean CruisesRCLCruise & Casino$23.2B$7.5B-68%
Norwegian Cruise LinesNCLHCruise & Casino$11.1B$3.1B-72%
Las Vegas SandsLVSCruise & Casino$52.8B$35.1B-34%
MGM Resorts InternationalMGMCruise & Casino$16.2B$6.2B-68%
Wynn ResortsWYNNCruise & Casino$14.6B$7.2B-51%
Caesars EntertainmentCZRCruise & Casino$10B$4.2B-58%
Eldorado ResortsERICruise & Casino$5.4B$1.3B-76%
Marriott InternationalMARHotels & Resorts$48.3B$25.7B-48%
HiltonHLTHotels & Resorts$31.3B$19.4B-38%
Hyatt HotelsHHotels & Resorts$9.1B$4.9B-46%
Choice Hotels InternationalCHHHotels & Resorts$6B$3.2B-46%
Wyndham Hotels & ResortsWHHotels & Resorts$5.6B$2.9B-48%
Park HotelsPKHotels & Resorts$5.5B$1.9B-66%
Vail ResortsMTNHotels & Resorts$9.98B$5.8B-41%
Marriott Vacations WorldwideVACHotels & Resorts$5.3B$2.2B-59%

For instance, the consequences on various travel bookings brands have been severe. Booking Holdings, the parent company to Booking.com, Priceline, Kayak and OpenTable, witnessed share price declines of over 35% since the peak.

Empty Stadiums

Across the entertainment industry, ticket sales for concerts, movies, and other events are falling precipitously due to cancellations or postponements.

Upwards of $5B in global film industry losses could result from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Chilling footage of the Las Vegas strip, as well as other tourist epicenters around the world, shows deserted streets as visitors opt to stay home instead.

Bracing For Impact

Meanwhile, worldwide airline revenue is estimated to fall by as much as $113B in 2020.

In under two months, the share price of Delta Airlines has fallen over 50% as the company anticipates a capacity reduction of 40%, the largest in its history.

CompanyTickerFeb 19 2020 Share PriceMar 24 2020 Share Price
Delta Air LinesNYSE:DAL$58.5$26.9
United Airlines NASDAQ:UAL$79.4$33
American Airlines NASDAQ:AAL$28.3$13.9
Southwest AirlinesNYSE:LUV$56.89$37.7
Alaska Air GroupNYSE:ALK$65.2$28.9
Air Canada (in CAD)TSX:AC$45.3$15.1

The global airline industry—which employs over 10M people—supports $2.7T in global economic activity across an average of 12M passengers per day.

Aruba, Jamaica No More

As for the cruise line industry, global operations came to a 30-day standstill in mid-March. Over 800 COVID-19 cases and 10 deaths across three cruise ships have been discovered.

“COVID-19 on cruise ships poses a risk for rapid spread of disease, causing outbreaks in a vulnerable population, and aggressive efforts are required to contain spread.”

—CDC

 

Carnival, a Miami-based company, has witnessed its share price fall to around one third of its February 19 value. Similarly, Royal Caribbean Cruises, which has seen its market cap plummet almost 70%, announced that it will suspend trips until mid-May.

Occupancy Dilemma

As the hotel industry is impacted by the global outbreak, share prices have also realized a significant slump. In the U.S., an estimated $1.4B in revenue is vanishing each week. If occupancy levels fall by just 30% this year, the U.S. hotel industry could see approximately 4 million jobs wiped out.

The Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index, which serves as a benchmark for the sector’s overall health, has declined over 47% year-to-date.

baird hotel stock index

Global Stimulus Response

A number of travel industries around the world are calling for stimulus packages.

On March 25, the U.S. Congress finalized a historic $2T deal, which includes $25B in grants for the airline industry. In the UK, officials are providing small businesses in hospitality and leisure grants that are worth up to $30,000 as part of its $400B bailout plan.

China, Germany, Italy, and Spain have outlined multibillion dollar proposals in response to COVID-19. Overall, at least eleven countries have announced stimulus plans along with the European Commission and the IMF.

When Will the Travel Wave Hit Again?

Amid the COVID-19 pandemic one thing is clear: the impact on the travel industry will have a marked effect on the broader economy.

Travel is closely linked with oil, as transportation accounts for over 60% of global demand. In Q2 2020, global oil consumption is projected to fall by 25M barrels per day.

Along with this, discretionary consumer spending makes up over one third of America’s GDP. The impact of the pandemic across this sector is expected to contribute to a 10% decline or more in U.S. GDP for the second quarter.

As conditions materially improve around the world—with China beginning to open up flights—positive signs are emerging from under the surface. Will BEACH industries quickly bounce back as infection rates drop, or will a slow and painful recovery unfold in the months ahead?

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Markets

Visualizing the Major Product Exported by Each U.S. State

Canada is the top destination for products from 21 states.

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Graphic showing product categories each state exports worldwide.

Visualizing the Major Product Exported by Each State

The U.S. is the second biggest exporter in the world, accounting for over 8% of global exports.

In this graphic by NeoMam Studios, we analyze the primary product exported by each state, as well as its main destination, utilizing data from the U.S. International Trade Administration.

Canada: The Primary Destination

Canada serves as the largest export market for most of the Midwest, while Mexico holds the top spot as the export destination for much of the Southwest and Southeast. Additionally, Canada stands out as the primary importer of products from 21 states, with China and Germany trailing behind as notable destinations.

StateDestinationTop Product ExportedValue (USD)
Alabama🇩🇪 GermanyTransportation equip.$3,649M
Alaska🇨🇦 CanadaMinerals$576M
Arizona🇲🇽 MexicoMinerals$1,760M
Arkansas🇨🇦 CanadaProcessed Foods$246M
California🇨🇦 CanadaComputer & Electronics$5,093M
Colorado🇰🇷 South KoreaProcessed Foods$545M
Connecticut🇩🇪 GermanyTransportation equip.$1,581M
Delaware🇰🇷 South KoreaAppliances$419M
Florida🇬🇧 UKChemicals$2,447M
Georgia🇨🇦 CanadaMachinery$1,629M
Hawaii🇭🇰 Hong KongTransportation equip.$68M
Idaho🇹🇼 TaiwanComputer & Electronics$394M
Illinois🇨🇦 CanadaTransportation equip.$4,517M
Indiana🇨🇦 CanadaTransportation equip.$6,561M
Iowa🇨🇦 CanadaMachinery$1,598M
Kansas🇲🇽 MexicoAgricultural$1,543M
Kentucky🇨🇦 CanadaTransportation equip.$3,630M
Louisiana🇨🇳 ChinaAgricultural$11,300M
Maine🇨🇦 CanadaOil & Gas$504M
Maryland🇫🇷 FranceTransportation equip.$949M
Massachusetts🇨🇳 ChinaMachinery$1,298M
Michigan🇨🇳 ChinaTransportation equip.$15,361M
Minnesota🇨🇦 CanadaPetroleum & Coal$2,787M
Mississippi🇵🇦 PanamaPetroleum & Coal$2,106M
Missouri🇨🇦 CanadaTransportation equip.$2,390M
Montana🇨🇦 CanadaMinerals$153M
Nebraska🇲🇽 MexicoAgricultural$933M
Nevada🇨🇭 SwitzerlandMetal$1,399M
New Hampshire🇩🇪 GermanyTransportation equip.$695M
New Jersey🇨🇦 CanadaChemicals$2,734M
New Mexico🇲🇽 MexicoComputer & Electronics$2,014M
New York🇨🇭 SwitzerlandMetal $18,262M
North Carolina🇨🇳 ChinaChemicals$4,312M
North Dakota🇨🇦 CanadaPetroleum & Coal$1,441M
Ohio🇨🇦 CanadaTransportation equip.$5,990M
Oklahoma🇨🇦 CanadaMachinery$418M
Oregon🇨🇳 ChinaComputer & Electronics$6,261M
Pennsylvania🇨🇦 CanadaChemicals$2,280M
Rhode Island🇮🇹 ItalyWaste & Scrap$321M
South Carolina🇩🇪 GermanyTransportation equip.$3,774M
South Dakota🇨🇦 CanadaProcessed Foods$297M
Tennessee🇨🇦 CanadaTransportation equip.$2,017M
Texas🇲🇽 MexicoPetroleum & Coal $33,627M
Utah🇬🇧 UKMetal $6,805M
Vermont🇹🇼 TaiwanComputer & Electronics$447M
Virginia🇮🇳 IndiaMinerals$1,799M
Washington🇨🇳 ChinaAgricultural $10,553M
West Virginia🇮🇳 IndiaMinerals$657M
Wisconsin🇨🇦 CanadaMachinery$1,802M
Wyoming🇮🇩 IndonesiaChemicals$200M

When it comes to the types of exports, transportation equipment emerges as the primary source for the majority of states, with minerals and ores, chemicals, and computer and electronics following closely behind.

For instance, North Carolina ships $4.3 billion worth of chemicals to China, marking one of the longest-distance trade flows among states. Meanwhile, Florida boasts one of the most diverse export portfolios, engaging in trade with Europe, South America, and the Caribbean.

Louisiana heavily relies on the export of agricultural products to China, which contributes significantly to its total GDP. Similarly, Michigan’s transportation equipment exports to Canada constitute a noteworthy portion of the state’s GDP.

In Oregon, exports of semiconductors and other computer parts to China, driven by companies like Intel and Micron, play a crucial role in the state’s economy. Meanwhile, Utah predominantly exports primary metal manufacturing goods to the United Kingdom.

The biggest exporter in the country, Texas, sees a significant portion of its GDP attributed to exports to Mexico, further underlining the state’s economic ties with its southern neighbor.

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