Markets
Which Countries Are Going in the Right Direction?
With so much polarization on key issues, it’s tough to get a pulse on where the world is heading.
But if you ditch the complexity and nuance surrounding current events, we can get a good gauge by asking a simple and direct question to people: are things going in the right direction?
Today’s data comes from the What Worries the World Report by Ipsos Public Affairs. It sums up responses from 18,110 people in 25 different countries on whether things are going in the “right direction” or “wrong direction” in their particular country.
The Right or Wrong Direction?
First of all, here is the official question posed by Ipsos – and the results sorted by country:
Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
On a global basis, 37% of people think their countries are heading in the “right direction”, though that varies for each individual country.
Respondents from China and Saudi Arabia are the most enthusiastic, with 90% and 80% of people respectively answering that things are on the right track. That said, it would be interesting to look at Ipsos’ methodology here to see how they are ensuring valid responses from people under the rule of more autocratic regimes.
The United States and Canada were in the middle of the pack. Only 35% Americans see things as being on the right track, while 54% of Canadians feel the same way.
Generally speaking, Europeans, Mexicans, Brazilians, and South Koreans are the most pessimistic about future prospects.
Hot Button Issues
What issues have got people feeling this way?
Respondents were asked to select their top three worries from a set of 17 options:
The two biggest global worries are both economic in nature: “Unemployment” and “Poverty & Social Inequality” were selected by 38% and 34% of people respectively.
Issues such as “Terrorism”, “Rise of Extremism” or “Immigration Control” are surprisingly in the middle of the pack, though it is worth keeping in mind that the above data is at a global level. These issues would likely rank higher in Western countries than in places like China, Russia, or India.
Trending Up or Down
With only 37% of global respondents seeing their country being “on track”, does that rank higher or lower than in previous surveys?
Interestingly, it is basically par for the course.
Since 2010, the results have basically trended sideways, with the percentage of people for “on track” never cracking 40% on a global level.
Economy
Economic Growth Forecasts for G7 and BRICS Countries in 2024
The IMF has released its economic growth forecasts for 2024. How do the G7 and BRICS countries compare?
G7 & BRICS Real GDP Growth Forecasts for 2024
The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) has released its real gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecasts for 2024, and while global growth is projected to stay steady at 3.2%, various major nations are seeing declining forecasts.
This chart visualizes the 2024 real GDP growth forecasts using data from the IMF’s 2024 World Economic Outlook for G7 and BRICS member nations along with Saudi Arabia, which is still considering an invitation to join the bloc.
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Mixed Economic Growth Prospects for Major Nations in 2024
Economic growth projections by the IMF for major nations are mixed, with the majority of G7 and BRICS countries forecasted to have slower growth in 2024 compared to 2023.
Only three BRICS-invited or member countries, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and South Africa, have higher projected real GDP growth rates in 2024 than last year.
| Group | Country | Real GDP Growth (2023) | Real GDP Growth (2024P) |
|---|---|---|---|
| G7 | 🇺🇸 U.S. | 2.5% | 2.7% |
| G7 | 🇨🇦 Canada | 1.1% | 1.2% |
| G7 | 🇯🇵 Japan | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| G7 | 🇫🇷 France | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| G7 | 🇮🇹 Italy | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| G7 | 🇬🇧 UK | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| G7 | 🇩🇪 Germany | -0.3% | 0.2% |
| BRICS | 🇮🇳 India | 7.8% | 6.8% |
| BRICS | 🇨🇳 China | 5.2% | 4.6% |
| BRICS | 🇦🇪 UAE | 3.4% | 3.5% |
| BRICS | 🇮🇷 Iran | 4.7% | 3.3% |
| BRICS | 🇷🇺 Russia | 3.6% | 3.2% |
| BRICS | 🇪🇬 Egypt | 3.8% | 3.0% |
| BRICS-invited | 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | -0.8% | 2.6% |
| BRICS | 🇧🇷 Brazil | 2.9% | 2.2% |
| BRICS | 🇿🇦 South Africa | 0.6% | 0.9% |
| BRICS | 🇪🇹 Ethiopia | 7.2% | 6.2% |
| 🌍 World | 3.2% | 3.2% |
China and India are forecasted to maintain relatively high growth rates in 2024 at 4.6% and 6.8% respectively, but compared to the previous year, China is growing 0.6 percentage points slower while India is an entire percentage point slower.
On the other hand, four G7 nations are set to grow faster than last year, which includes Germany making its comeback from its negative real GDP growth of -0.3% in 2023.
Faster Growth for BRICS than G7 Nations
Despite mostly lower growth forecasts in 2024 compared to 2023, BRICS nations still have a significantly higher average growth forecast at 3.6% compared to the G7 average of 1%.
While the G7 countries’ combined GDP is around $15 trillion greater than the BRICS nations, with continued higher growth rates and the potential to add more members, BRICS looks likely to overtake the G7 in economic size within two decades.
BRICS Expansion Stutters Before October 2024 Summit
BRICS’ recent expansion has stuttered slightly, as Argentina’s newly-elected president Javier Milei declined its invitation and Saudi Arabia clarified that the country is still considering its invitation and has not joined BRICS yet.
Even with these initial growing pains, South Africa’s Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor told reporters in February that 34 different countries have submitted applications to join the growing BRICS bloc.
Any changes to the group are likely to be announced leading up to or at the 2024 BRICS summit which takes place October 22-24 in Kazan, Russia.
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