Politics
Interactive: Comparing Asian Powers to the U.S.
Interactive: Comparing Asian Powers to the U.S.
Whether it’s the planning and execution of massive infrastructure projects like One Belt, One Road, or the dramatic increase in wealth occurring in the region, it’s clear that the economic boom in the East is rapidly expanding Asia’s influence on the world stage.
More importantly, this growing economic might is also translating to geopolitical influence – and over time, it could have a paradigm-shifting impact on the balance of power in the world.
How to Compare Asian Powers
Today’s interactive infographic on the Asia Power Index comes to us from the Lowy Institute, and it introduces a methodology to compare Asian powers using macro categories such as economic resources, military capabilities, cultural influence, diplomatic influence, and defense networks.
Each category is informed by a number of indicators – and there are 114 metrics in total. They include quantifiable numbers from public sources on things like military expenditures, global exports, global investment outflows, number of supercomputers, satellites launched, etc.
Interestingly, all of the data used to score powers in Asia is also contrasted to the United States, which helps give an idea of relative significance.
The Most Powerful Nations
We recommend exploring the interactive piece to get the most out of the data – but here are some meaningful spoilers to start with:
Overall Power
Taking all 114 metrics into consideration puts the U.S. into the #1 spot with a score of 85.0. Right behind are China (75.5), Japan (42.1), India (41.5), Russia (33.3), and then Australia (32.5). The U.S. leads in five categories, but falls behind China in three: Future Trends, Diplomatic Influence, and Economic Relationships.
Economic Resources
In this category, the U.S. and China are neck-and-neck with scores of 91.7 and 91.3 respectively. The next closest Asian powers are well-behind: Japan (32.9), India (26.8), Russia (17.0) and South Korea (17.0).
Military Capability
As expected, the U.S. ranks #1 with 94.6. On the Asian side, we have China (69.9), Russia (61.4), India (48.9), and North Korea (35.8).
Future Trends
This category takes into account future projections on economic growth, military expenditures, and working age population size. Not surprisingly, China ranks #1 here at 83.0. Behind it is the United States (60.0), and India (55.6). Other Asian powers are a ways further down the list, with Indonesia (11.7) and Russia (11.4) being the only other countries with double-digit scores.
For more, we recommend checking out the full-width interactive version provided by the Lowy Institute here.
Economy
The Bloc Effect: International Trade with Geopolitical Allies on the Rise
Rising geopolitical tensions are shaping the future of international trade, but what is the effect on trading among G7 and BRICS countries?
The Bloc Effect: International Trade with Allies on the Rise
International trade has become increasingly fragmented over the last five years as countries have shifted to trading more with their geopolitical allies.
This graphic from The Hinrich Foundation, the first in a three-part series covering the future of trade, provides visual context to the growing divide in trade in G7 and pre-expansion BRICS countries, which are used as proxies for geopolitical blocs.
Trade Shifts in G7 and BRICS Countries
This analysis uses IMF data to examine differences in shares of exports within and between trading blocs from 2018 to 2023. For example, we looked at the percentage of China’s exports with other BRICS members as well as with G7 members to see how these proportions shifted in percentage points (pp) over time.
Countries traded nearly $270 billion more with allies in 2023 compared to 2018. This shift came at the expense of trade with rival blocs, which saw a decline of $314 billion.
Country Change in Exports Within Bloc (pp) Change in Exports With Other Bloc (pp)
🇮🇳 India 0.0 3.9
🇷🇺 Russia 0.7 -3.8
🇮🇹 Italy 0.8 -0.7
🇨🇦 Canada 0.9 -0.7
🇫🇷 France 1.0 -1.1
🇪🇺 EU 1.1 -1.5
🇩🇪 Germany 1.4 -2.1
🇿🇦 South Africa 1.5 1.5
🇺🇸 U.S. 1.6 -0.4
🇯🇵 Japan 2.0 -1.7
🇨🇳 China 2.1 -5.2
🇧🇷 Brazil 3.7 -3.3
🇬🇧 UK 10.2 0.5
All shifts reported are in percentage points. For example, the EU saw its share of exports to G7 countries rise from 74.3% in 2018 to 75.4% in 2023, which equates to a 1.1 percentage point increase.
The UK saw the largest uptick in trading with other countries within the G7 (+10.2 percentage points), namely the EU, as the post-Brexit trade slump to the region recovered.
Meanwhile, the U.S.-China trade dispute caused China’s share of exports to the G7 to fall by 5.2 percentage points from 2018 to 2023, the largest decline in our sample set. In fact, partly as a result of the conflict, the U.S. has by far the highest number of harmful tariffs in place.
The Russia-Ukraine War and ensuing sanctions by the West contributed to Russia’s share of exports to the G7 falling by 3.8 percentage points over the same timeframe.
India, South Africa, and the UK bucked the trend and continued to witness advances in exports with the opposing bloc.
Average Trade Shifts of G7 and BRICS Blocs
Though results varied significantly on a country-by-country basis, the broader trend towards favoring geopolitical allies in international trade is clear.
Bloc Change in Exports Within Bloc (pp) Change in Exports With Other Bloc (pp)
Average 2.1 -1.1
BRICS 1.6 -1.4
G7 incl. EU 2.4 -1.0
Overall, BRICS countries saw a larger shift away from exports with the other bloc, while for G7 countries the shift within their own bloc was more pronounced. This implies that though BRICS countries are trading less with the G7, they are relying more on trade partners outside their bloc to make up for the lost G7 share.
A Global Shift in International Trade and Geopolitical Proximity
The movement towards strengthening trade relations based on geopolitical proximity is a global trend.
The United Nations categorizes countries along a scale of geopolitical proximity based on UN voting records.
According to the organization’s analysis, international trade between geopolitically close countries rose from the first quarter of 2022 (when Russia first invaded Ukraine) to the third quarter of 2023 by over 6%. Conversely, trade with geopolitically distant countries declined.
The second piece in this series will explore China’s gradual move away from using the U.S. dollar in trade settlements.
Visit the Hinrich Foundation to learn more about the future of geopolitical trade
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