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Charting the Rise and Fall of the Global Luxury Goods Market

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Charting the Rise and Fall of the Global Luxury Goods Market

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The Rise and Fall of the Global Luxury Goods Market

Global demand for personal luxury goods has been steadily increasing for decades, resulting in an industry worth $308 billion in 2019.

However, the insatiable desire for consumers to own nice things was suddenly interrupted by the coming of COVID-19, and experts are predicting a brutal contraction of up to one-third of the current luxury good market size this year.

Will the industry bounce back? Or will it return as something noticeably different?

A Once Promising Trajectory

The global luxury goods market—which includes beauty, apparel, and accessories—has compounded at a 6% pace since the 1990s.

Recent years of growth in the personal luxury goods market can be mostly attributed to Chinese consumers. This geographic market accounted for 90% of total sales growth in 2019, followed by the Europe and the Americas.

Analysts suggest that China’s younger luxury goods consumers in particular have significant spending power, with an average spend of $6,000 (¥41,000) per person in pre-COVID times.

An Industry Now in Distress

The lethal combination of reduced foot traffic and decreased consumer spending in the first quarter of 2020 has brought the retail industry to its knees.

In fact, more than 80% of fashion and luxury players will experience financial distress as a result of extended store closures.

luxury market McKinsey supplemental

With iconic luxury retailers such as Neiman Marcus filing for bankruptcy, the pressure on the luxury industry is clear. It should be noted however, that companies who were experiencing distress before the COVID-19 outbreak will be the hardest hit.

Predicting the Collapse

In a recent report, Bain & Company estimated a 25% to 30% global luxury market contraction for the first quarter of 2020 based on several economic variables. They have also modeled three scenarios to predict the performance for the remainder of 2020.

  • Optimistic scenario: A limited market contraction of 15% to 18%, assuming increased consumer demand for the second and third quarter of the year, roughly equating to a sales decline of $46 billion to $56 billion.
  • Intermediate scenario: A moderate market contraction of between 22% and 25%, or $68 to $77 billion.
  • Worst-case scenario: A steep contraction of between 30% and 35%, equating to $92 billion to $108 billion. This assumes a longer period of sales decline.

Although there are signs of recovery in China, the industry is not expected to fully return to 2019 levels until 2022 at the earliest. By that stage, the industry could have transformed entirely.

Changing Consumer Mindsets

Since the beginning of the pandemic, one-quarter of consumers have delayed purchasing luxury items. In fact, a portion of those who have delayed purchasing luxury goods are now considering entirely new avenues, such as seeking out cheaper alternatives.

However, most people surveyed claim that they will postpone buying luxury items until they can get a better deal on price.

luxury market supplemental

This frugal mindset could spark an interesting behavioral shift, and set the stage for a new category to emerge from the ashes—the second-hand luxury market.

Numerous sources claim that pre-owned luxury could in fact overtake the traditional luxury market, and the pandemic economy could very well be a tipping point.

The Future of Luxury

Medium-term market growth could be driven by a number of factors, from a global growing middle class and their demand for luxury products, as well as retailers’ sudden shift to e-commerce.

While analysts can only rely on predictions to determine the future of personal luxury, it is clear that the industry is at a crossroads.

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The Fastest Rising U.S. Housing Markets in 2024

As U.S. home prices hit record highs, which housing market is seen the fastest growth? This graphic shows the top 10 across the country.

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This bar chart shows the U.S. housing markets with the fastest rising home prices in 2024.

The Fastest Rising U.S. Housing Markets in 2024

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

The U.S. housing market has been on a tear, with median sales prices rising more than 40% since February 2020.

While cities in southern states like Florida have witnessed some of the strongest price growth, more affordable cities across the Midwest are also seeing growing demand as buyers seek out cheaper options.

This graphic shows the U.S. metros with the fastest price growth, based on data from Redfin.

Hottest Housing Markets in America

Below, we rank the metropolitan areas with the fastest annual median sales price growth as of February 2024:

RankMetroMedian Sales Price Growth
Feb 2024 YoY
1Pittsburgh, PA+22.0%
2Fort Lauderdale, FL+18.0%
3Greensboro, NC+17.8%
4Meridian, ID+17.3%
5Toledo, OH+17.0%
6Boca Raton, FL+16.4%
7West Palm Beach, FL+16.1%
8Orlando, FL+15.9%
9Milwaukee, WI+15.6%
10Alexandria, VA+15.4%
U.S. average+6.5%

Pittsburgh, PA soars to the top of the list, with median sale prices jumping 22% over the year.

Once known as a center for steel and iron manufacturing, the city has emerged as a hub for high-tech industries including robotics, software engineering, and healthcare. At a time when housing affordability is near record lows, buyers have flocked to the market thanks to its lower home prices. In February, median sales prices in Pittsburgh were $250,000 compared to the U.S. median price of $412,219.

Following next in line is Fort Lauderdale, FL with prices jumping 18% annually. Like several cities across the state, property values have boomed thanks to the state’s warm climate and low taxes. The state also ranks as one of the best in the country to retire. In 2023, it was one of the fastest growing states in the country, adding 365,205 residents overall.

As we can see, just one housing market in the West, Meridian, ID, is experiencing some of the strongest price growth in the country. Since the pandemic, many Californians priced out of expensive real estate markets have moved to the state due to its strong job market, low crime rate, and affordability. In fact, Los Angeles and San Fransisco are some of the top metropolitan areas nationally that people are moving away from due to remote-work trends and the high cost of living.

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