population

Charted: When Will the Global Population Start to Shrink?

Published

4 weeks ago

August 13, 2024

Marcus Lu

Graphics/Design:

Anna Diederichs

See this visualization first on the Voronoi app.

When Will the Global Population Start to Shrink?

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

Everyone alive today has only ever lived in a world with a growing population. And for the opposite to be true, the number of people being born would have to be outpaced by the number of people dying.

As it happens, that particular inflection point is not too far off according to latest estimates. We visualize the latest UN forecasts for the number of global births and deaths. Figures were sourced from the UN’s World Population Prospects 2024.

Global Births and Deaths (1950–2100)

In 2023, 132 million babies were born and nearly 62 million people died. Resulting in a population growth of 70 million people (+0.9%).

But as birth rates fall around the world, the number of deaths occurring each year is expected to surpass the number of births by 2084. This could potentially kick off an era of global population decline.

Year	Global Births	Global Deaths	Population Growth / Decline
1950	91,824,000	48,487,000	+43,337,000
1951	92,507,000	48,176,000	+44,331,000
1952	97,371,000	47,383,000	+49,988,000
1953	97,291,000	47,240,000	+50,051,000
1954	100,188,000	46,662,000	+53,526,000
1955	101,748,000	46,636,000	+55,112,000
1956	101,759,000	46,479,000	+55,280,000
1957	106,018,000	46,881,000	+59,137,000
1958	104,644,000	46,518,000	+58,126,000
1959	102,000,000	50,725,000	+51,275,000
1960	102,378,000	54,612,000	+47,766,000
1961	100,951,000	49,919,000	+51,032,000
1962	112,039,000	46,061,000	+65,978,000
1963	119,803,000	46,913,000	+72,890,000
1964	117,292,000	46,823,000	+70,469,000
1965	117,837,000	48,214,000	+69,623,000
1966	117,233,000	47,842,000	+69,391,000
1967	116,920,000	47,569,000	+69,351,000
1968	121,826,000	47,629,000	+74,197,000
1969	122,228,000	47,816,000	+74,412,000
1970	124,136,000	48,163,000	+75,973,000
1971	123,740,000	49,384,000	+74,356,000
1972	123,554,000	47,770,000	+75,784,000
1973	123,564,000	47,573,000	+75,991,000
1974	122,709,000	47,478,000	+75,231,000
1975	121,030,000	47,623,000	+73,407,000
1976	121,322,000	47,707,000	+73,615,000
1977	120,787,000	47,167,000	+73,620,000
1978	122,141,000	47,293,000	+74,848,000
1979	125,000,000	46,964,000	+78,036,000
1980	127,447,000	47,350,000	+80,097,000
1981	129,716,000	47,471,000	+82,245,000
1982	133,207,000	47,659,000	+85,548,000
1983	131,968,000	48,207,000	+83,761,000
1984	134,365,000	48,431,000	+85,934,000
1985	136,374,000	48,773,000	+87,601,000
1986	139,301,000	48,644,000	+90,657,000
1987	141,347,000	48,657,000	+92,690,000
1988	140,986,000	49,183,000	+91,803,000
1989	142,249,000	49,178,000	+93,071,000
1990	143,461,000	49,794,000	+93,667,000
1991	138,307,000	50,108,000	+88,199,000
1992	136,591,000	50,282,000	+86,309,000
1993	135,632,000	50,832,000	+84,800,000
1994	135,143,000	51,931,000	+83,212,000
1995	134,850,000	51,407,000	+83,443,000
1996	134,321,000	51,411,000	+82,910,000
1997	133,986,000	51,432,000	+82,554,000
1998	133,858,000	51,854,000	+82,004,000
1999	134,059,000	52,184,000	+81,875,000
2000	135,758,000	52,240,000	+83,518,000
2001	135,380,000	52,431,000	+82,949,000
2002	135,396,000	52,758,000	+82,638,000
2003	135,701,000	53,077,000	+82,624,000
2004	136,596,000	53,188,000	+83,408,000
2005	137,166,000	53,390,000	+83,776,000
2006	138,469,000	53,282,000	+85,187,000
2007	139,936,000	53,410,000	+86,526,000
2008	141,759,000	53,987,000	+87,772,000
2009	142,968,000	54,123,000	+88,845,000
2010	143,354,000	54,269,000	+89,085,000
2011	143,879,000	54,581,000	+89,298,000
2012	146,055,000	54,795,000	+91,260,000
2013	145,015,000	55,093,000	+89,922,000
2014	145,268,000	55,545,000	+89,723,000
2015	144,334,000	56,306,000	+88,028,000
2016	144,854,000	56,757,000	+88,097,000
2017	143,602,000	57,572,000	+86,030,000
2018	140,333,000	57,793,000	+82,540,000
2019	138,597,000	58,355,000	+80,242,000
2020	134,720,000	63,546,000	+71,174,000
2021	133,449,000	69,728,000	+63,721,000
2022	132,475,000	62,279,000	+70,196,000
2023	132,110,000	61,652,000	+70,458,000
2024	132,406,000	62,389,000	+70,017,000
2025	132,399,000	63,136,000	+69,263,000
2026	132,503,000	63,637,000	+68,866,000
2027	132,591,000	64,626,000	+67,965,000
2028	132,761,000	65,678,000	+67,083,000
2029	132,989,000	66,739,000	+66,250,000
2030	133,256,000	67,827,000	+65,429,000
2031	133,513,000	68,954,000	+64,559,000
2032	133,765,000	70,103,000	+63,662,000
2033	134,065,000	71,289,000	+62,776,000
2034	134,381,000	72,486,000	+61,895,000
2035	134,669,000	73,714,000	+60,955,000
2036	134,946,000	74,948,000	+59,998,000
2037	135,141,000	76,206,000	+58,935,000
2038	135,355,000	77,450,000	+57,905,000
2039	135,515,000	78,710,000	+56,805,000
2040	135,669,000	79,951,000	+55,718,000
2041	135,673,000	81,209,000	+54,464,000
2042	135,636,000	82,443,000	+53,193,000
2043	135,581,000	83,672,000	+51,909,000
2044	135,407,000	84,890,000	+50,517,000
2045	135,109,000	86,093,000	+49,016,000
2046	134,764,000	87,282,000	+47,482,000
2047	134,271,000	88,448,000	+45,823,000
2048	133,752,000	89,607,000	+44,145,000
2049	133,163,000	90,746,000	+42,417,000
2050	132,555,000	91,877,000	+40,678,000
2051	131,923,000	92,986,000	+38,937,000
2052	131,280,000	94,084,000	+37,196,000
2053	130,667,000	95,173,000	+35,494,000
2054	130,020,000	96,249,000	+33,771,000
2055	129,485,000	97,293,000	+32,192,000
2056	128,995,000	98,309,000	+30,686,000
2057	128,531,000	99,310,000	+29,221,000
2058	128,110,000	100,283,000	+27,827,000
2059	127,755,000	101,242,000	+26,513,000
2060	127,431,000	102,157,000	+25,274,000
2061	127,117,000	103,025,000	+24,092,000
2062	126,876,000	103,870,000	+23,006,000
2063	126,635,000	104,678,000	+21,957,000
2064	126,430,000	105,485,000	+20,945,000
2065	126,218,000	106,273,000	+19,945,000
2066	126,019,000	107,032,000	+18,987,000
2067	125,793,000	107,799,000	+17,994,000
2068	125,547,000	108,554,000	+16,993,000
2069	125,260,000	109,292,000	+15,968,000
2070	124,986,000	110,035,000	+14,951,000
2071	124,696,000	110,770,000	+13,926,000
2072	124,348,000	111,529,000	+12,819,000
2073	123,982,000	112,258,000	+11,724,000
2074	123,573,000	112,984,000	+10,589,000
2075	123,140,000	113,707,000	+9,433,000
2076	122,693,000	114,417,000	+8,276,000
2077	122,209,000	115,099,000	+7,110,000
2078	121,660,000	115,749,000	+5,911,000
2079	121,107,000	116,357,000	+4,750,000
2080	120,555,000	116,924,000	+3,631,000
2081	119,955,000	117,418,000	+2,537,000
2082	119,412,000	117,862,000	+1,550,000
2083	118,804,000	118,270,000	+534,000
2084	118,220,000	118,619,000	-399,000
2085	117,622,000	118,941,000	-1,319,000
2086	117,028,000	119,206,000	-2,178,000
2087	116,442,000	119,458,000	-3,016,000
2088	115,886,000	119,684,000	-3,798,000
2089	115,345,000	119,920,000	-4,575,000
2090	114,805,000	120,136,000	-5,331,000
2091	114,283,000	120,359,000	-6,076,000
2092	113,773,000	120,604,000	-6,831,000
2093	113,262,000	120,878,000	-7,616,000
2094	112,773,000	121,154,000	-8,381,000
2095	112,282,000	121,465,000	-9,183,000
2096	111,831,000	121,754,000	-9,923,000
2097	111,397,000	122,077,000	-10,680,000
2098	110,941,000	122,380,000	-11,439,000
2099	110,501,000	122,664,000	-12,163,000
2100	110,028,000	122,922,000	-12,894,000

Note: Columns can be sorted to see which years are expected to have declines.

By the year 2100, the UN estimates the global population could shrink by nearly 13 million people, roughly the current populace of Bolivia.

Of course, these estimates are not exact and occur within a 95% confidence interval. It’s a range within which the true values are expected to fall 95% of the time. At the uppermost band, births still outnumber deaths in the year 2100. At the lowermost band, population decline could start closer to 2060.

Why does this matter? Simply put, population decline is not a phenomenon the world economy is currently built for. It disrupts labor markets, strains social security systems, and threatens economic growth by reducing consumer demand. This can lead to a cycle of stagnation and increased debt.

On the other hand, it can result in reduced resource demand and extraction. With fewer people, education could see increased investment, resulting in a skilled workforce better equipped to changing economic needs.