Economy

Charted: China’s Rise to Manufacturing Dominance Over 30 Years

Published

1 month ago

December 9, 2024

Pallavi Rao

Graphics/Design:

Anna Diederichs

See this visualization first on the Voronoi app.

China’s Rise to Manufacturing Dominance (2000-2030P)

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China and manufacturing dominance together are words easily believed, but this wasn’t always the case. The world’s manufacturer didn’t always make—quite literally—everything.

This visualization projects the change in manufacturing value added (MVA) by country from 2000 to 2030.

Data is sourced from the UN Industrial Development Organization, as of November 2024.

Economic Reforms and Exports Drove China’s Boom

Back in 2000, China accounted for only 6% of global manufacturing value added (MVA), easily eclipsed by manufacturing giants like the U.S., Japan, and Germany, not to mention a host of other high income countries.

All of that changed when China joined the WTO in 2001, giving it better trade deals with other members. At the same time the government significantly opened up the economy, allowing foreign direct investment into several key sectors, prompting a take off in new business growth.

Countries	Share of MVA (2000)	Countries	Share of MVA (2030P)
🇺🇸 U.S.	25%	🇨🇳 China	45% (+39pp)
🇯🇵 Japan	11%	🇺🇸 U.S.	11% (-14pp)
🇩🇪 Germany	8%	🇯🇵 Japan	5% (-6pp)
🇨🇳 China	6%	🇩🇪 Germany	3% (-5pp)
🇮🇹 Italy	4%	🇰🇷 South Korea	3%
🇫🇷 France	3%	Other High Income Countries	16%
🇬🇧 UK	3%	Upper Middle Income Countries	8%
Other High Income Countries	21%	Low & Lower Middle Income Countries	9%
Upper Middle Income Countries	14%	N/A	N/A
Low & Lower Middle Income Countries	5%	N/A	N/A

Previous decades of economic reforms—transforming the country from an agrarian society to an industrial one—and mix of free-market socialism had primed the country to emerge as a global manufacturer.

A vast skilled workforce, which is far more affordable than those in high income countries, helped supercharge growth. At one point in the mid-2000s, exports accounted for a full-third of China’s GDP.

And these exports covered everything: electronics, machinery, consumer goods, textiles, even something as specific as shipbuilding.

By 2030, the UN projects that China will account for 45% of global manufacturing value added (MVA), far away the highest share held by a single country. The U.S., at 11% is expected to be a distant second.

Learn More on the Voronoi App

How big is the Chinese economy anyway? Pretty big. Like, really huge. Check out: China’s Economy is Larger Than 30 Asian Economies Combined for an eye-watering comparison.