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The Trump Effect on Currencies

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Chart: The Trump Effect on Currencies

The Trump Effect on Currencies

Rhetoric has already had an impact on currencies in a big way

The Chart of the Week is a weekly Visual Capitalist feature on Fridays.

Targeting companies or entire nations on Twitter is an unprecedented and controversial method of communication for a President-elect – but one can’t argue with its effectiveness so far.

In today’s chart, we take a look at Donald Trump’s rather unconventional form of “monetary policy”, and how it has potentially influenced the U.S. dollar and five other major currencies since his election in November.

Ready, Aim, Tweet

A preview of President-elect Trump’s “America First” directive can already be seen on Twitter.

Trump’s infamous account, which is followed by 18.8 million people, is being used every day to highlight the potential winners and losers of future policies.

And markets are listening.

Currency% Change (vs. USD)
Russian Ruble7.7%
Canadian Dollar0.4%
Chinese Yuan-1.5%
Euro-5.0%
Mexican Peso-13.4%

The above table shows change in the value of foreign currencies against the U.S. dollar between November 7th, 2016 and today. To be fair, it is worth noting that oil prices have also rallied over this time, and oil also has a pronounced effect on some currencies.

Individual Cases

Central to “America First” is a Trump-branded form of protectionism, which aims to keep jobs and dollars in the U.S at all costs. The President-elect has repeatedly blasted China for currency manipulation, as well as automotive companies which seek to produce cars in Mexico.

China, as one of the world’s major economic powers, has some leeway in any war of words with Trump. While the country sends 18% of its exports to the United States, it could also theoretically benefit economically with the U.S. taking a step back from foreign entanglements. China also holds $1.12 trillion of U.S. treasuries, which gives it some additional leverage.

On the other hand, Mexico has a lot more to worry about. The country sends 80.3% of its exports north of the border and could conceivably lose significant amounts of business if NAFTA is scrapped and tariffs are re-introduced. As a result, even with oil’s gains over the last two months, the peso has dropped -13.4% in value since Trump’s election in November.

An Unlikely Friend

On the opposite side of the spectrum, Trump has been making moves to warm up relations with Russia – a protectionist country that isn’t really a “threat” to U.S. jobs.

Russia, which has been on Trump’s “good side” so far, has had its ruble trade 7.7% higher since the election. These gains partially reflect the future easing of sanctions that were put in place after Moscow’s aggression toward Ukraine in 2014.

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Agriculture

The World’s Top Cocoa Producing Countries

Here are the largest cocoa producing countries globally—from Côte d’Ivoire to Brazil—as cocoa prices hit record highs.

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This tree map graphic shows the world's biggest cocoa producers.

The World’s Top Cocoa Producing Countries

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West Africa is home to the largest cocoa producing countries worldwide, with 3.9 million tonnes of production in 2022.

In fact, there are about one million farmers in Côte d’Ivoire supplying cocoa to key customers such as Nestlé, Mars, and Hershey. But the massive influence of this industry has led to significant forest loss to plant cocoa trees.

This graphic shows the leading producers of cocoa, based on data from the UN FAO.

Global Hotspots for Cocoa Production

Below, we break down the top cocoa producing countries as of 2022:

Country2022 Production, Tonnes
🇨🇮 Côte d'Ivoire2.2M
🇬🇭 Ghana1.1M
🇮🇩 Indonesia667K
🇪🇨 Ecuador337K
🇨🇲 Cameroon300K
🇳🇬 Nigeria280K
🇧🇷 Brazil274K
🇵🇪 Peru171K
🇩🇴 Dominican Republic76K
🌍 Other386K

With 2.2 million tonnes of cocoa in 2022, Côte d’Ivoire is the world’s largest producer, accounting for a third of the global total.

For many reasons, the cocoa trade in Côte d’Ivoire and Western Africa has been controversial. Often, farmers make about 5% of the retail price of a chocolate bar, and earn $1.20 each day. Adding to this, roughly a third of cocoa farms operate on forests that are meant to be protected.

As the third largest producer, Indonesia produced 667,000 tonnes of cocoa with the U.S., Malaysia, and Singapore as major importers. Overall, small-scale farmers produce 95% of cocoa in the country, but face several challenges such as low pay and unwanted impacts from climate change. Alongside aging trees in the country, these setbacks have led productivity to decline.

In South America, major producers include Ecuador and Brazil. In the early 1900s, Ecuador was the world’s largest cocoa producing country, however shifts in the global marketplace and crop disease led its position to fall. Today, the country is most known for its high-grade single-origin chocolate, with farms seen across the Amazon rainforest.

Altogether, global cocoa production reached 6.5 million tonnes, supported by strong demand. On average, the market has grown 3% annually over the last several decades.

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