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Chart: The Downward Spiral in Interest Rates

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During the onset of an economic crisis, national governments are thought to have two chief policy tools at their disposal:

  1. Fiscal Policy
    How the central government collects money through taxation, and how it spends that money
  2. Monetary Policy
    How central banks choose to manage the supply of money and interest rates

Major fiscal policy changes can take time to be implemented — but since central banks can make moves unilaterally, monetary policy is often the first line of defense in settling markets.

As the ripple effect of the COVID-19 pandemic rages on, central banks have been quick to act in slashing interest rates. However, with rates already sitting at historic lows before the crisis, it is possible that banks may be forced to employ more unconventional and controversial techniques to try and calm the economy as time goes on.

The Fed: Firing at Will

The most meaningful rate cuts happened on March 3rd and March 15th after emergency meetings in the United States.

First, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut the target rate from 1.5% to 1.0% — and then on Sunday (March 15th) the rate got chopped by an entire percentage point to rub up against the lower bound of zero.

Fed rate cuts historical

As you can see on the chart, this puts us back into familiar territory: a policy environment analogous to that seen during the recovery from the financial crisis.

ZIRP or NIRP?

It’s been awhile, but with interest rates again bumping up against the lower bound, you’ll begin to see discussions pop up again about the effectiveness of zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) and even negative interest rate policy (NIRP).

Although the latter has been used by some European banks in recent years, NIRP has never been experimented with in the United States or Canada.

Here’s a quick primer on both:

NIRP and ZIRP

With rates sitting at zero, it’s not impossible for the Fed and other central banks to begin toying more seriously with the idea of negative rates. Such a move would be bold, but also seen as highly experimental and risky with unforeseen consequences.

Global Rate Slashing

Since only the beginning of March, the world’s central banks have cut interest rates on 37 separate occasions.

The only exception to this rule was the National Bank of Kazakhstan, which raised its key rate by 2.75% to support its currency in light of current oil prices. Even so, the Kazakhstani tenge has lost roughly 15% of its value against the U.S. dollar since February.

Here’s a look at cumulative interest rate cuts by some of the world’s most important central banks, from January 1, 2020 until today:

Central Bank Moves YTD

Going into the year, rates in developed economies were already between 0% and 2%.

Despite not having much room to work with, banks have slashed rates where they can — and now out of major developed economies, Canada has the “highest” interest rate at just 0.75%.

Helicopters on the Horizon

With central banks running out of ammo for the use of traditional measures, the conversation is quickly shifting to unconventional measures such as “helicopter money” and NIRP.

Life is already surreal as societal measures to defend against the spread of COVID-19 unfold; pretty soon, monetary measures taken around the globe may seem just as bizarre.

Put another way, unless something changes fast and miraculously, we could be moving into an unprecedented monetary environment where up is down, and down is up. At that point, it’s anybody’s guess as to how things will shake out going forward.

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Visualizing the Major Product Exported by Each U.S. State

Canada is the top destination for products from 21 states.

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Graphic showing product categories each state exports worldwide.

Visualizing the Major Product Exported by Each State

The U.S. is the second biggest exporter in the world, accounting for over 8% of global exports.

In this graphic by NeoMam Studios, we analyze the primary product exported by each state, as well as its main destination, utilizing data from the U.S. International Trade Administration.

Canada: The Primary Destination

Canada serves as the largest export market for most of the Midwest, while Mexico holds the top spot as the export destination for much of the Southwest and Southeast. Additionally, Canada stands out as the primary importer of products from 21 states, with China and Germany trailing behind as notable destinations.

StateDestinationTop Product ExportedValue (USD)
Alabama🇩🇪 GermanyTransportation equip.$3,649M
Alaska🇨🇦 CanadaMinerals$576M
Arizona🇲🇽 MexicoMinerals$1,760M
Arkansas🇨🇦 CanadaProcessed Foods$246M
California🇨🇦 CanadaComputer & Electronics$5,093M
Colorado🇰🇷 South KoreaProcessed Foods$545M
Connecticut🇩🇪 GermanyTransportation equip.$1,581M
Delaware🇰🇷 South KoreaAppliances$419M
Florida🇬🇧 UKChemicals$2,447M
Georgia🇨🇦 CanadaMachinery$1,629M
Hawaii🇭🇰 Hong KongTransportation equip.$68M
Idaho🇹🇼 TaiwanComputer & Electronics$394M
Illinois🇨🇦 CanadaTransportation equip.$4,517M
Indiana🇨🇦 CanadaTransportation equip.$6,561M
Iowa🇨🇦 CanadaMachinery$1,598M
Kansas🇲🇽 MexicoAgricultural$1,543M
Kentucky🇨🇦 CanadaTransportation equip.$3,630M
Louisiana🇨🇳 ChinaAgricultural$11,300M
Maine🇨🇦 CanadaOil & Gas$504M
Maryland🇫🇷 FranceTransportation equip.$949M
Massachusetts🇨🇳 ChinaMachinery$1,298M
Michigan🇨🇳 ChinaTransportation equip.$15,361M
Minnesota🇨🇦 CanadaPetroleum & Coal$2,787M
Mississippi🇵🇦 PanamaPetroleum & Coal$2,106M
Missouri🇨🇦 CanadaTransportation equip.$2,390M
Montana🇨🇦 CanadaMinerals$153M
Nebraska🇲🇽 MexicoAgricultural$933M
Nevada🇨🇭 SwitzerlandMetal$1,399M
New Hampshire🇩🇪 GermanyTransportation equip.$695M
New Jersey🇨🇦 CanadaChemicals$2,734M
New Mexico🇲🇽 MexicoComputer & Electronics$2,014M
New York🇨🇭 SwitzerlandMetal $18,262M
North Carolina🇨🇳 ChinaChemicals$4,312M
North Dakota🇨🇦 CanadaPetroleum & Coal$1,441M
Ohio🇨🇦 CanadaTransportation equip.$5,990M
Oklahoma🇨🇦 CanadaMachinery$418M
Oregon🇨🇳 ChinaComputer & Electronics$6,261M
Pennsylvania🇨🇦 CanadaChemicals$2,280M
Rhode Island🇮🇹 ItalyWaste & Scrap$321M
South Carolina🇩🇪 GermanyTransportation equip.$3,774M
South Dakota🇨🇦 CanadaProcessed Foods$297M
Tennessee🇨🇦 CanadaTransportation equip.$2,017M
Texas🇲🇽 MexicoPetroleum & Coal $33,627M
Utah🇬🇧 UKMetal $6,805M
Vermont🇹🇼 TaiwanComputer & Electronics$447M
Virginia🇮🇳 IndiaMinerals$1,799M
Washington🇨🇳 ChinaAgricultural $10,553M
West Virginia🇮🇳 IndiaMinerals$657M
Wisconsin🇨🇦 CanadaMachinery$1,802M
Wyoming🇮🇩 IndonesiaChemicals$200M

When it comes to the types of exports, transportation equipment emerges as the primary source for the majority of states, with minerals and ores, chemicals, and computer and electronics following closely behind.

For instance, North Carolina ships $4.3 billion worth of chemicals to China, marking one of the longest-distance trade flows among states. Meanwhile, Florida boasts one of the most diverse export portfolios, engaging in trade with Europe, South America, and the Caribbean.

Louisiana heavily relies on the export of agricultural products to China, which contributes significantly to its total GDP. Similarly, Michigan’s transportation equipment exports to Canada constitute a noteworthy portion of the state’s GDP.

In Oregon, exports of semiconductors and other computer parts to China, driven by companies like Intel and Micron, play a crucial role in the state’s economy. Meanwhile, Utah predominantly exports primary metal manufacturing goods to the United Kingdom.

The biggest exporter in the country, Texas, sees a significant portion of its GDP attributed to exports to Mexico, further underlining the state’s economic ties with its southern neighbor.

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