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Chart of the Week

Chart: The Downfall of Canada’s Largest Alternative Mortgage Lender

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Chart: The Downfall of Canada's Largest Alternative Mortgage Lender

The Downfall of Home Capital

And what it could mean to global investors

The Chart of the Week is a weekly Visual Capitalist feature on Fridays.

If history does indeed rhyme, then the saga of Canada’s largest alternative mortgage lender could be the opening act in a Shakespearean financial tragedy.

Home Capital Group, the country’s leader in subprime residential loans, is finally on the ropes after years of speculation. The company was the most-shorted stock in Canada at various points in 2015, and it also took the crown as the most-shorted stock in North America for durations of 2016.

Those bears are likely buying the drinks this weekend. Home Capital’s stock has fallen 89% from its peak in August 2014, and over that time the company has shed over $3.4 billion of market capitalization. The biggest portion of the fall came just weeks ago, when depositors withdrew nearly $600 million in cash from Home Capital Group’s balance sheet.

In more recent news: the company has also had its credit rating downgraded, opened an emergency credit facility of $2 billion with sky-high interest rates, and shook up its board as part of a “governance renewal”. Oh, and all of this is happening while regulators pursue allegations that the company intentionally misled investors.

Part of a Bigger Narrative

It’s no secret that Canada’s housing and mortgage sector has been precarious for some time.

While the country’s banks and real estate sector largely shook off the effects of the Financial Crisis, the market has been bubbly and speculative since then. We previously noted the insanity of Vancouver’s real estate market, and even The Economist was calling Canada the most overvalued housing market in the world years ago.

Not much has changed. Governments have tried to step in with foreign buyer taxes, but it’s not enough to stop skyrocketing prices in Toronto. At the same time, Vancouver is also rebounding from recent government interventions to try and cool off the local market. In fact, prices there are up 5% in just three months.

While Home Capital Group is a relatively small fish in the Canadian mortgage pond, the saga has also prompted global investors to think deeper about Canadian housing. Are the issues with Home Capital a one-off, or are they systemic to the market as a whole? Is there a possibility of widespread contagion?

Gut Check Time

Markets are divided on the above issues for now. Some analysts are calling Home Capital a speculative buying opportunity, while others see it as a potential trigger for the puncture of the Canadian housing bubble.

Contagion has already been spreading, especially to other lenders such as Equitable Group – a company with a similar business model, that has seen shares fall 34% over the last month.

Home Capital contagion has spread to the entire mortgage market, in particular alternative mortgage lenders. Our channel checks suggest [Equitable Group’s] deposit-gathering capabilities will be impaired.

Jaeme Gloyn, National Bank (April 27th, 2017)

At the same time, house prices continue to increase – and governments are doing everything in their power to cool them off without triggering a recession. It’s a financial tightrope act that will be watched closely by investors around the world.

If the Home Capital saga is indeed just the opening act of a Shakespearean financial tragedy, then the following act will also be one to watch.

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Chart of the Week

The Big Five: Largest Acquisitions by Tech Company

The ‘Big Five’ tech companies are rapidly reshaping the global tech landscape with their acquisitions, devouring any competitor who gets in their way.

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The Big Five: Largest Acquisitions by Tech Company

The Big Five tech giants, or “FAAMG”—Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Google (Alphabet)—have a combined market capitalization of over $4 trillion.

These powerful tech behemoths often devour the talent, technology, or entire businesses of aspiring competitors. Given their financial weight, mergers and acquisitions have become a key tactic in maintaining their strong grip on tech supremacy.

Today’s Chart of the Week explores the world’s most powerful tech companies and their biggest acquisitions to date.

Which Acquisitions Were a Success?

While these tech giants may have had big aspirations for these exceedingly large deals, they have mixed success rates.

Microsoft

Microsoft made its big move 2016 to buy LinkedIn for $26.2 billion, and it’s the most sizable acquisition by any of the Big Five tech companies.

Microsoft’s 5 Biggest Acquisitions:

Acquisition (Year)AmountCategory
LinkedIn (2016)$26.2 billionSocial Media
Skype (2011)$8.5 billionTelecommunications
GitHub (2018)$7.5 billionSoftware
Nokia (2014)$7.2 billionTelecommunications
aQuantive (2007)$6.3 billionMarketing

The LinkedIn deal was made due to the synergy between the two companies’ offerings, and Microsoft’s desire to gain access to LinkedIn’s 575 million members.

However, not all of Microsoft’s acquisitions have been as successful, such as its 2014 purchase of Nokia’s Devices & Services business for $7.2 billion. This seemed like a smart move at the time, considering the Finnish company held 41% of the global handset market.

Yet, Microsoft sold the asset for a mere $350 million just two years later. Microsoft shifted its strategy and exited the feature phone market, choosing to focus on a narrow, niche market for their hardware.

Amazon

Amazon has closed more than $20 billion in acquisitions and investments since 2017. This includes the purchase of Whole Foods, which Amazon bought for $13.7 billion, and is the company’s largest acquisition to date.

Amazon’s 5 Biggest Acquisitions:

Acquisition (Year)AmountCategory
Whole Foods (2017)$13.7 billionRetail
Zappos (2009)$1.2 billionRetail
Ring (2018)$1.2 billionTechnology
PillPack (2018)$1 billionPharmaceuticals
Twitch (2014)$970 millionSocial Media

From purchases to bolster the AI of smart assistant Alexa, to Wi-Fi enabled doorbell Ring, recent additions clearly show the company intends to cement its presence in people’s homes.

After acquiring Whole Foods, Amazon began offering store discounts to Prime customers, in an attempt to bundle its home offerings and provide a more holistic customer experience.

Alphabet

Alphabet has made several daring moves into the hardware and data science sectors. The company’s biggest acquisition was Motorola, which it bought in 2012 for $12.5 billion.

Alphabet’s 5 Biggest Acquisitions:

Acquisition (Year)AmountCategory
Motorola (2012)$12.5 billionTelecommunications
Nest (2014)$3.2 billionTechnology
DoubleClick (2007)$3.1 billionMarketing
Looker (2019)$2.6 billionSoftware
YouTube (2006)$1.7 billionSocial Media

However, the purchase of Motorola was a bet that didn’t pay off. Alphabet sold off much of Motorola’s assets for less than $3 billion in 2014, a little less than two years after it had originally acquired it.

Alphabet continues to consolidate its acquisitions in order to simplify its organizational structure. DoubleClick, acquired in 2007, merged with Google Analytics 360 Suite under the Google Marketing Platform—making it easier for marketers to access their metrics using one platform.

Apple

Out of the Big Five companies, Apple has the fewest acquisitions over $1 billion. Its largest purchase was for Beats Electronics, which it acquired for $3 billion in 2014.

Apple’s 5 Biggest Acquisitions

Acquisition (Year)AmountCategory
Beats (2014)$3 billionMusic
Dialog Semiconductor (2018)$600 millionManufacturing
Anobit (2011)$500 millionManufacturing
Shazam (2017)$400 millionMusic
NeXT Computer (1996)$400 millionTechnology

Apple’s increasing music streaming efforts have been evident, with the acquisition of Shazam three years after it purchased Beats Electronics.

In an intriguing recent turn of events, Apple recently announced it will acquire the majority of Intel’s smartphone modem business. This $1 billion deal will allow Apple to build all of its devices in-house, and better prepare the iPhone for the upcoming 5G push.

Facebook

Facebook’s largest acquisition has been WhatsApp Messenger, which it purchased for $22 billion in 2014. The WhatsApp acquisition is the second largest of the Big Five, following Microsoft’s LinkedIn purchase.

Facebook’s 5 Biggest Acquisitions:

Acquisition (Year)AmountCategory
WhatsApp (2014)$22 billionSocial Media
Oculus (2014)$2 billionTechnology
Instagram (2012)$1 billionSocial Media
LiveRail (2014)$500 millionMarketing
Onavo (2013)$200 millionAnalytics

Aside from absorbing any competitors who encroach on Facebook’s turf—such as WhatsApp and Instagram—Facebook’s takeovers have been aimed at venturing into uncharted territory. The acquisition of virtual reality manufacturer, Oculus, is evidence of Facebook’s bet on virtual reality as the future of engagement.

“After games, we’re going to make Oculus a platform for many other experiences. Imagine enjoying a court side seat at a game, or studying in a classroom of students and teachers all over the world —just by putting on goggles in your home.”

—Mark Zuckerberg

Predicting the Next Shift

The Big Five are some of the most influential companies in the world today.

Beyond rapidly reshaping the global tech landscape, these acquisitions provide important context on how tech companies consolidate power—and, more importantly, what will fuel their next phase of growth.

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Chart of the Week

The Most Miserable Countries in the World

The annual Misery Index ranks the most and least miserable countries, based on four economic factors—unemployment, inflation, lending rates, and GDP growth.

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The Most Miserable Countries in the World

Some people believe that happiness comes from within. In the world of economics, however, happiness may be more linked to quantitative factors such as inflation, lending rates, employment levels, and growth in gross domestic product (GDP).

This week’s chart uses data from Steve Hanke of the Cato Institute, and it visualizes the 2019 Misery Index rankings, across 95 countries that report this data on a consistent basis.

The index uses four key economic variables to rank and score countries:

  1. Inflation
  2. Lending rate
  3. Unemployment rate
  4. GDP per capita growth

Here are the Misery Index scores for all 95 countries:

RankCountryContributing FactorMisery Index Score
#1🇻🇪 VenezuelaInflation1,746,439.1
#2🇦🇷 ArgentinaInflation105.6
#3🇮🇷 IranInflation75.7
#4🇧🇷 BrazilLending Rates53.6
#5🇹🇷 TurkeyUnemployment53.3
#6🇳🇬 NigeriaUnemployment43.0
#7🇿🇦 South AfricaUnemployment42.0
#8🇧🇦 Bosnia and HerzegovinaUnemployment38.2
#9🇪🇬 EgyptLending Rates36.8
#10🇺🇦 UkraineLending Rates34.3
#11NicaraguaUnemployment31.3
#12JordanUnemployment30.9
#13UruguayLending Rates27.1
#14HondurasUnemployment26.8
#15MacedoniaUnemployment26.4
#16ArmeniaUnemployment25.1
#17JamaicaLending Rates24.9
#18Saudi ArabiaUnemployment23.5
#19ColombiaLending Rates23.2
#20ParaguayLending Rates22.9
#21GreeceUnemployment22.5
#22AlgeriaUnemployment21.9
#23Costa RicaLending Rates21.7
#24PeruLending Rates21.2
#25AzerbaijanLending Rates21.0
#26Dominican RepublicLending Rates & Unemployment20.3
#27KazakhstanLending Rates20.1
#28BarbadosUnemployment19.7
#29Papua New GuineaLending Rates19.2
#30GeorgiaUnemployment18.8
#31MauritiusLending Rates17.9
#32SerbiaUnemployment17.4
#33GuatemalaLending Rates17.2
#34PakistanLending Rates16.7
#35Sri LankaLending Rates16.0
#36SpainUnemployment15.9
#37RussiaLending Rates15.7
#38MexicoLending Rates15.4
#39IndonesiaLending Rates15.2
#40Trinidad & TobagoLending Rates14.7
#41New ZealandLending Rates14.4
#42ItalyUnemployment13.7
#43MaliUnemployment13.6
#44IndiaLending Rates13.2
#45BangladeshLending Rates12.6
#46AlbaniaLending Rates12.2
#47EcuadorUnemployment12.2
#48El SalvadorUnemployment12.0
#49PhilipinesLending Rates11.8
#50CyprusUnemployment11.7
#51CroatiaUnemployment10.9
#52BoliviaLending Rates10.8
#53CanadaUnemployment10.8
#54PanamaLending Rates10.7
#55FranceUnemployment10.7
#56AustraliaUnemployment10.6
#57KuwaitLending Rates10.5
#58ChileUnemployment10.3
#59EstoniaUnemployment10.3
#60RomaniaLending Rates10.3
#61IcelandLending Rates9.7
#62United KingdomLending Rates9.6
#63BelgiumUnemployment9.3
#64NorwayUnemployment9.3
#65SwedenUnemployment8.8
#66MoldovaLending Rates8.8
#67VietnamLending Rates8.7
#68United StatesLending Rates8.7
#69BulgariaUnemployment8.6
#70FinlandUnemployment8.3
#71Hong KongLending Rates8.3
#72PortugalUnemployment8.2
#73LithuaniaUnemployment7.3
#74SloveniaUnemployment7.2
#75LatviaUnemployment7.0
#76IsraelUnemployment6.8
#77DenmarkUnemployment6.8
#78South KoreaUnemployment6.5
#79PolandUnemployment6.5
#80QatarLending Rates5.8
#81SlovakiaUnemployment5.7
#82GermanyUnemployment5.6
#83MaltaUnemployment5.3
#84SingaporeLending Rates5.2
#85IrelandUnemployment5.1
#86MalaysiaLending Rates5.1
#87Czech RepublicLending Rates5.0
#88NetherlandsUnemployment4.7
#89TaiwanUnemployment4.4
#90SwitzerlandLending Rates4.2
#91ChinaLending Rates4.2
#92AustriaUnemployment3.9
#93JapanUnemployment3.3
#94HungaryUnemployment2.6
#95ThailandLending Rates1.7

To calculate each Misery Index score, a simple formula is used: GDP per capita growth is subtracted from the sum of unemployment, inflation, and bank lending rates.

Which of these factors are driving scores in some of the more “miserable” countries? Which countries rank low on the list, and why?

The Highest Misery Index Scores

Two Latin American countries, Venezuela and Argentina, rank near the top of Hanke’s index.

1. Vexation in Venezuela

Venezuela holds the title of the most “miserable” country in the world for the fourth consecutive year in a row. According to the United Nations, four million Venezuelans have left the country since its economic crisis began in 2014.

Turmoil in Venezuela has been further fueled by skyrocketing hyperinflation. Citizens struggle to afford basic items such as food, toiletries, and medicine. The Cafe Con Leche Index was created specifically to monitor the rapidly changing inflation rates in Venezuela.

Not only does Venezuela have the highest score in the Misery Index, but its score has also seen a dramatic increase over the past year as the crisis has accelerated.

2. Argentina’s History of Volatility

Argentina is the second most “miserable” country, which comes as no surprise given the country’s history of economic crises.

The 2018 Argentine monetary crisis caused a severe devaluation of the peso. The downfall forced the President, Mauricio Macri, to request a loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

To put things in perspective, this is the 22nd lending arrangement between Argentina and the IMF. Only six countries have had more commitments to the international organization, including Haiti (27) and Colombia (25).

The Lowest Misery Index Scores

The two countries with the lowest scores in the index have one thing in common: extremely low rates of unemployment.

1. Why Thailand is the Land of Smiles

Thailand takes the prize as the least “miserable” country in the world on the index. The country’s unemployment rate has been remarkably low for years, ranging between 0.4% and 1.2% since 2011. This is the result of the country’s unique structural factors. The “informal” sectors—such as street vendors or taxi drivers—absorb people who become unemployed in the “formal” sector.

Public infrastructure investments by the Thai government continue to attract both private domestic and foreign investments, bolstering the country’s GDP alongside tourism and exports.

2. Hungary’s Prime Minister Sets the Score

Hungary is the second least “miserable” country in the world according to the index.

In 2010, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán implemented a workfare program which diverted menial tasks to thousands of job seekers. Over the same period that the program ran, the national unemployment rate fell from 11.4% to 3.8%.

Orbán won a controversial fourth term in 2018, possibly in part due to promises to protect the country’s sovereignty against the European Union. Despite accusations of populism and even authoritarian tendencies, the Prime Minister still commands a strong following in Hungary.

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