Canadian Housing is Being Propped Up by Just One City
Without Vancouver’s gains, the market would have dipped -1.1% in February 2016
The Chart of the Week is a weekly Visual Capitalist feature on Fridays.
“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” – John Maynard Keynes
The last time we gave a good run down of Canada’s housing market was in May 2015, when we noted that The Economist gave it the dubious title of the most overvalued housing market in the world. Since then, in just 10 months, prices in Vancouver and Toronto have soared to marks that are 14.1% and 8.7% higher respectively.
Frothy prices, million-dollar shacks, and buying frenzies have prompted world-class short-sellers to come out of the woodwork. For a speculator such as Marc Cohodes, who advises hedge funds on Wall Street that want to bet against the Canadian housing market, this type of classic bubble behavior is music to his ears.
“The cross currents are beyond crazy in Vancouver — it’s a mix of money laundering, speculation, low interest rates,” says Cohodes, who was once profiled as Wall Street’s highest-profile short-seller by the New York Times. “A house is something you live in, but in Vancouver you guys are trading them like the penny stocks on Howe Street.”
Mr. Cohodes has recently said that Canadian real estate has reached “peak insanity”, and it’s part of the reason that investors around the world are trying to find a way to bet against the market.
Home Capital Group, one of Canada’s largest financial institutions, was one of the most-shorted stocks last year on Canadian exchanges. The same alternative mortgage lender recently also came under scrutiny for suspending 45 of its brokers for falsifying borrower income.
Just as falling oil prices helped to drag the Canadian dollar down, the “lower for longer” price environment for crude has had a similar effect on house prices in the Prairies. Homes in Fort McMurray, the epicenter of the Canadian oil sands, have crashed an average of $117,000 in just a year.
Meanwhile, price tags in the once-strong housing market of Calgary have declined from their peak in October 2014 by -5.4%. The city, which is a financial center for Canadian energy, is bracing for a particular tough year ahead as well. Houses are spending more time on the market, and sales volume and prices continue to fall.
But it’s not just Canada’s oilpatch that is starting to see the writing on the wall. Toronto, which has helped to buoy the rest of the country’s housing growth for years, has also started to cool down.
According to the Teranet – National Bank House Price Index, prices have risen just 0.3% since October in Canada’s largest real estate market. With the prospect of rising interest rates in the future, it’s not expected to heat back up, either. In fact, TD Bank expects that Toronto will have a “moderate” decline in 2017.
And Then There was One…
For investors bullish on near-term gains in Canada’s housing sector, there is one last hope that resides on the West Coast.
Vancouver’ housing market sailed again in February, shooting up a record 3.2% in just one month. This is the best month for the market since August 2006. It was so good, in fact, that it single-handedly propped up Canada’s national index for housing.
Canada’s market as a whole saw gains of 0.6% in the month, but it would have dropped to a lacklustre -1.1% without the inclusion of Vancouver in the 11-city index.
The only problem?
While Keynes is right in that markets can remain irrational for longer than one can stay solvent, it seems that Canadian housing has turned a corner: regional markets in other parts of the country have stumbled, and the last remaining pillar is Vancouver.
It may continue to buck the trend for now, but it is a wobbly pillar at best.
The Best Selling Vehicles in America, By State
From Fords in the Midwest to Toyotas on the coasts, here are the best selling vehicles in America, visualized by state.
The Best Selling Vehicles in America, By State
From Ford trucks in the Midwest to Toyotas on the coasts, the best selling vehicles in America reveal a lot about the country.
Compared to other countries with fewer highways or narrower roads, the U.S. is very much a truck-friendly country. Across the U.S., the most sold vehicle in 2019 was the Ford F-Series of trucks, primarily the F-150.
As the home of the world’s pioneer automotive manufacturers, including Ford and GM, consumers primarily purchase local brands. But that hasn’t stopped Toyota, the largest foreign manufacturer in the world, from also gaining a foothold.
This graphic uses 2020 sales data from automotive information resource Edmunds.com, breaking down the best selling vehicles in each state through new vehicle retail registration.
What Are the Best Selling Vehicles in Each State?
Despite a slowdown in vehicle sales due to the COVID-19 pandemic and a global chip shortage, Americans still bought plenty of trucks last year.
In fact, 48 out of the 50 states had a truck or SUV as the top selling vehicle in 2020—and most states actually had trucks taking all of the top three spots. The only two with a car topping the leaderboard were California and Florida.
|Top Selling Vehicle By State (2020)||#1||#2||#3|
|Alabama||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado||Toyota Camry|
|Alaska||Ram 1500-3500||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado|
|Arizona||Ram 1500-3500||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado|
|Arkansas||Ram 1500-3500||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado|
|California||Honda Civic||Toyota RAV4||Toyota Camry|
|Colorado||Ford F-Series||Ram 1500-3500||Toyota RAV4|
|Connecticut||Honda CR-V||Toyota RAV4||Subaru Forester|
|D.C.||Toyota RAV4||Honda CR-V||Subaru Forester|
|Delaware||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado||RAM 1500-3500|
|Florida||Toyota Corolla||Ford F-Series||Toyota RAV4|
|Georgia||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado||RAM 1500-3500|
|Hawaii||Toyota Tacoma||Toyota 4Runner||Toyota RAV4|
|Idaho||Ford F-Series||RAM 1500-3500||Chevrolet Silverado|
|Illinois||Ford F-Series||Honda CR-V||Chevrolet Silverado|
|Indiana||Chevrolet Silverado||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Equinox|
|Iowa||Chevrolet Silverado||Ford F-Series||RAM 1500-3500|
|Kansas||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado||RAM 1500-3500|
|Kentucky||Chevrolet Silverado||Ford F-Series||RAM 1500-3500|
|Louisiana||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado||RAM 1500-3500|
|Maine||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado||RAM 1500-3500|
|Maryland||Toyota RAV4||Ford F-Series||Honda CR-V|
|Massachusetts||Toyota RAV4||Honda CR-V||Ford F-Series|
|Michigan||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Equinox||RAM 1500-3500|
|Minnesota||Chevrolet Silverado||Ford F-Series||RAM 1500-3500|
|Mississippi||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado||RAM 1500-3500|
|Missouri||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado||RAM 1500-3500|
|Montana||Ford F-Series||RAM 1500-3500||Chevrolet Silverado|
|Nebraska||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado||RAM 1500-3500|
|Nevada||Ram 1500-3500||Ford F-Series||Toyota RAV4|
|New Hampshire||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado||Toyota RAV4|
|New Jersey||Honda CR-V||Honda Civic||Toyota RAV4|
|New Mexico||Ford F-Series||RAM 1500-3500||Chevrolet Silverado|
|New York||Honda CR-V||Toyota RAV4||Jeep Cherokee|
|North Carolina||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado||RAM 1500-3500|
|North Dakota||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado||RAM 1500-3500|
|Ohio||Ford F-Series||RAM 1500-3500||Chevrolet Silverado|
|Oklahoma||Ford F-Series||RAM 1500-3500||Chevrolet Silverado|
|Oregon||Toyota RAV4||Ford F-Series||RAM 1500-3500|
|Pennsylvania||Ford F-Series||RAM 1500-3500||Honda CR-V|
|Puerto Rico||Toyota RAV4||Toyota Yaris||Toyota Corolla|
|Rhode Island||Toyota RAV4||Honda CR-V||Ford F-Series|
|South Carolina||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado||RAM 1500-3500|
|South Dakota||Ford F-Series||RAM 1500-3500||Chevrolet Silverado|
|Tennessee||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado||RAM 1500-3500|
|Texas||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado||RAM 1500-3500|
|Utah||Ford F-Series||RAM 1500-3500||Chevrolet Silverado|
|Vermont||Ford F-Series||Toyota RAV4||RAM 1500-3500|
|Virginia||Ford F-Series||Toyota RAV4||Honda CR-V|
|Washington||Toyota RAV4||Ford F-Series||Ram 1500-3500|
|West Virginia||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado||Ram 1500-3500|
|Wisconsin||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado||Ram 1500-3500|
|Wyoming||Ram 1500-3500||Ford F-Series||Chevrolet Silverado|
The Ford F-Series was the clear leader in sales, primarily in the Midwest. With a top-selling spot in 60% of U.S. states, the F-Series was the best selling vehicle in America.
Combined with the Chevrolet Silverado and Ram 1500-3500 series, the big three American truck brands accounted for 73% of the top three selling vehicles across all American states and territories.
Japanese Automakers in the Mix
Though American manufacturers had the best selling cars in most states, they had some overseas competition.
Japanese manufacturers Toyota and Honda had the top-selling vehicle in 11 states (and D.C.). They primarily captured car sales along the coastlines, including in California, Florida, New York and Washington, some of the most populated states in the country.
|America's Best Selling Vehicles (2020)||Type||# Times in Top 3|
Despite many cars being available for sale in the U.S., only seven manufacturers made the top-selling vehicles list in 2020.
With the full effects of the COVID-19 pandemic yet to be reflected in the sales, and electric vehicle manufacturers like Tesla on the rise, how will the best selling vehicles in America evolve?
Ranked: Big Tech CEO Insider Trading During the First Half of 2021
Big Tech is worth trillions, but what are insiders doing with their stock? We breakdown Big Tech CEO insider trading during the first half of 2021.
Big Tech CEO Insider Trading During The First Half of 2021
When CEOs of major companies are selling their shares, investors can’t help but notice.
After all, these decisions have a direct effect on the personal wealth of these insiders, which can say plenty about their convictions with respect to the future direction of the companies they run.
Considering that Big Tech stocks are some of the most popular holdings in today’s portfolios, and are backed by a collective $5.3 trillion in institutional investment, how do the CEOs of these organizations rank by their insider selling?
|CEO||Stock||Shares Sold H1 2021||Value of Shares ($M)|
|Jeff Bezos||Amazon (AMZN)||2.0 million||$6,600|
|Mark Zuckerberg||Facebook (FB)||7.1 million||$2,200
|Satya Nadella||Microsoft (MSFT)||278,694||$65|
|Sundar Pichai||Google (GOOGL)||27,000||$62|
|Tim Cook||Apple (AAPL)||0||$0|
Breaking Down Insider Trading, by CEO
Let’s dive into the insider trading activity of each Big Tech CEO:
During the first half of 2021, Jeff Bezos sold 2 million shares of Amazon worth $6.6 billion.
This activity was spread across 15 different transactions, representing an average of $440 million per transaction. Altogether, this ranks him first by CEO insider selling, by total dollar proceeds. Bezos’s time as CEO of Amazon came to an end shortly after the half way mark for the year.
In second place is Mark Zuckerberg, who has been significantly busier selling than the rest.
In the first half of 2021, he unloaded 7.1 million shares of Facebook onto the open market, worth $2.2 billion. What makes these transactions interesting is the sheer quantity of them, as he sold on 136 out of 180 days. On average, that’s $12 million worth of stock sold every day.
Zuckerberg’s record year of selling in 2018 resulted in over $5 billion worth of stock sold, but over 90% of his net worth still remains in the company.
Next is Satya Nadella, who sold 278,694 shares of Microsoft, worth $234 million. Despite this, the Microsoft CEO still holds an estimated 1.6 million shares, which is the largest of any insider.
Microsoft’s stock has been on a tear for a number of years now, and belongs to an elite trillion dollar club, which consists of only six public companies.
Fourth on the list is Sundar Pichai who has been at the helm at Google for six years now. Since the start of 2021, he’s sold 27,000 shares through nine separate transactions, worth $62.5 million. However, Pichai still has an estimated 6,407 Class A and 114,861 Class C shares.
Google is closing in on a $2 trillion valuation and is the best performing Big Tech stock, with shares rising 60% year-to-date. Their market share growth from U.S. ad revenues is a large contributing factor.
Last, is Tim Cook, who just surpassed a decade as Apple CEO.
During this time, shares have rallied over 1,000% and annual sales have gone from $100 billion to $347 billion. That said, Cook has sold 0 shares of Apple during the first half of 2021. That doesn’t mean he hasn’t sold shares elsewhere, though. Cook also sits on the board of directors for Nike, and has sold $6.9 million worth of shares this year.
Measuring Insider Selling
All things equal, it’s desirable for management to have skin in the game, and be invested alongside shareholders. It can also be seen as aligning long-term interests.
A good measure of insider selling activity is in relation to the existing stake in the company. For example, selling $6.6 billion worth of shares may sound like a lot, but when there are 51.7 million Amazon shares remaining for Jeff Bezos, it actually represents a small portion and is probably not cause for panic.
If, however, executives are disclosing large transactions relative to their total stakes, it might be worth digging deeper.
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